This article by the Head of Multi-Asset Funds proposes that the UK economy and global equities are potential losers of the polycrisis, while equities in healthcare, energy, and raw materials may be poised as winners, where polycrisis has spurred innovation and demand. It then considers the uncertain prospects for Japan’s monetary policy and its zero-inflation […]
Investing in the Age of Polycrisis Read More »
Tim Palmer discusses the challenges of predicting events in nonlinear systems that, by nature, experience intermittent instabilities, as in the famous “butterfly effect”. Today, continued emissions are increasing the instabilities and uncertainties of climate change, while the economy and global health exhibit similar non-linearities. To deal with such uncertainties, he advocates ensemble prediction systems that
Why the World Feels so Unstable Right Now Read More »
Adam Tooze argues that there are three ways to reconcile “the feverish talk of deglobalisation and decoupling” with statistics that “show an inertial continuity in trade and investment patterns: business as usual, insofar as nothing has changed and the deglobalisation talk is empty; a new Cold War in which the US is trying seriously to
Three Ways to Read the ‘Deglobalisation’ Debate Read More »
The authors argue that the most effective way to build general resilience in an increasingly volatile and uncertain world is to foster “response diversity… a system’s variety of responses to disruptions of all kinds.” That entails maintaining a variety of ways to carry out key system process (ideally at different spatial and temporal scales) that
Response Diversity as a Sustainability Strategy Read More »
Farwa Sial argues that the polycrisis neologism is a feint that allows international financial institutions to continue business as usual by obscuring their role in global problems. She critiques definitions of polycrisis for downplaying the role of capitalism and global power hierarchies in the perpetuation of contemporary crises, and for overlooking the experiences of the
This 18th edition of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report is based on a risk perceptions survey of 1200 experts on the likelihood, severity, and interconnections between 37 global risks. It finds that the biggest risk in the next two years is the cost of living crisis, and the biggest risk in the next
Global Risks Report 2023 Read More »
Ian Bremmer and Cliff Kupchan present their top ten geopolitical risks for 2023: an increasingly rogue and reckless Russia; an increasingly powerful and unconstrained Xi Jinping; the weaponization of artificial intelligence; shockwaves of global inflation; Iran backed into a corner; higher energy prices; reversals of development; political divisions in the United States; the disruptive digital
The report highlights the distinctive harms for children and future generations of eight global trends that are part of the polycrisis: continued impacts of the pandemic, inflation, food insecurity, energy shortages, underinvestment in children, threats to democratic rights, international factionalism, and internet inequality.
Prospects for Children in the Polycrisis: A 2023 Global Outlook Read More »
While increased climate warming may motivate ambitious actions that remediate the climate crisis, Millward-Hopkins proposes that it may have the opposite effect. He argues that the indirect impacts of warming, such as widening socioeconomic inequalities, increased migration, and heightened risk of conflict, interact with key drivers of authoritarian populism in ways that may foster resistance
Why the impacts of climate change may make us less likely to reduce emissions Read More »
Wolf argues that we cannot think about and address the many problems facing the world separately from one another. “The alternative of thinking about the interactions among [macroeconomics, finance, politics, social change, disease, and the environment] is also too hard. But sometimes, as now, it becomes inescapable… The point is that we need to analyse
How to Think about Policy in a Polycrisis Read More »
