The report presents Eurasia Group’s annual forecast of the political risks most likely to play out over the course of 2026. It outlines ten key global developments expected to shape the geopolitical landscape, including state-level conflicts, technological disruption, institutional challenges, and economic pressures. The analysis frames 2026 as a potential tipping point, marked by heightened
In this conversation, Thomas Homer-Dixon introduces the Cascade Institute’s Polycrisis Core Model (PCM), a novel framework designed to map and analyse interactions among 11 critical global systems, each with multiple potential future states. The model employs cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis to evaluate over four million internally consistent scenarios, ultimately identifying 11 distinct “attractor” states. These
Mapping the Hope Attractor: A Conversation with Thomas- Homer Dixon Read More »
The authors investigate the impact of climate-induced temperature shocks on systemic risk within the banking sector. Using a sample of 35 financial intermediaries across 13 countries and employing the ΔCoVaR methodology, the authors find that deviations from historical temperature averages are associated with heightened systemic risk, concluding that climate volatility threatens financial stability by amplifying
Climate Change and Systemic Risk: Evidence from Financial Intermediaries Read More »
The October Global Risk Review Report provides an analysis of emerging geopolitical, economic, and humanitarian risks, emphasizing the interconnected nature of contemporary crises. It examines rising political violence, institutional fragility, and regional tensions, with examples ranging from the assassination of U.S. political figures to youth-led protests in South and Southeast Asia. The report addresses strategic
Global Risk Review Read More »
In this episode of The Call, economist Gita Gopinath joins host Jay Sapsford to explore the growing challenges posed by global fragmentation. As geopolitical tensions escalate, trade disputes intensify, and debt levels rise, the discussion examines how these dynamics threaten economic stability and international cooperation. Gopinath highlights the transformative impact of artificial intelligence on productivity
What are the Risks of a Fragmented World? Read More »
The authors outline a research agenda to deepen understanding of the economic and financial consequences of nature and biodiversity loss, emphasizing that ecosystem degradation and climate change are intertwined through a “Twin-Crises Multiplier.” They introduce a model in which ecosystem services are direct inputs to economic production, and their loss amplifies both environmental and financial
Nature and Biodiversity Loss: A Research Agenda for Financial Economics Read More »
This report introduces the Cascade Institute’s Stress-Trigger-Crisis model, a systemic framework that distinguishes between slow-moving stresses that erode the resilience of global systems and fast-moving trigger events that precipitate crises. It identifies 14 global systemic stresses that affect nine vital systems: climate, ecology, food, energy, economy, infrastructure, health, social order and governance, and world order.
Global Systemic Stresses: Understanding the Drivers of Polycrisis Read More »
This paper addresses the challenge of accurately measuring systemic risk by introducing a novel indicator, Expected Shortfall Rank (ESRank), which accounts for cascading failures and network effects often overlooked in traditional models. Using LASSO to construct tail risk networks among financial institutions and ΔCoES to simulate contagion dynamics, the study develops a general cascading failure
Cascading Failure, Financial Network and Systemic Risk Read More »
This report examines the complex and compounding challenges facing economies in fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS). It highlights how overlapping crises—such as armed conflict, institutional fragility, climate-related disasters, commodity price volatility, and global economic shocks—interact to deepen poverty, food insecurity, and deficits in human development across FCS economies. The report calls for targeted, sequenced policy
Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations: Intertwined Crises, Multiple Vulnerabilities Read More »
This article explores the pivotal role of international finance in shaping political responses to four major global crises: the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the climate emergency, and the intensifying geoeconomic rivalry between China and the United States. It highlights how financial mobilization has varied across these crises, serving distinct strategic purposes and
International Finance and the Global Polycrisis Read More »
