Economy Archives - Polycrisis

Navigating a Fragmenting World Order – Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Risks for Canadian Financial Institutions

This report examines how the shift from hyperglobalisation toward a more fragmented, geoeconomic world order is creating new and interconnected risks for Canadian financial institutions. Building on a “Triple Exposure” framework of Canada’s structural position, it identifies three compounding layers of risk: operational risks arising from sanctions, regulatory conflicts, cyber threats, data restrictions, and dependence

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The Predictive Power of Systemic Risk Indicators Under Extreme Scenarios

The authors examine the predictive power of systemic risk indicators for China’s listed financial institutions between 2008 and 2025. They analyse indicator performance from three angles: macro-level timeliness, market performance of financial institutions, and early warning of bank distress. The authors find that fluctuations in systemic risk indicators align closely with periods of financial stress,

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The ‘Reverse Kindleberger Trap’: Reasons to Worry About the Next Financial Crisis

The author examines the risk of a future financial crisis occurring without a dominant power willing and able to stabilise the international economic order. Lubin contrasts the US response to the 2008 crisis with the conditions likely to shape a Trump-era crisis, citing the administration’s selective and transactional approach to currency swap arrangements, interventions by

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The Polycrisis and Emerging-Market Resilience: Climate Shocks, Financial Volatility, and Geopolitical Fragmentation as Simultaneous Stressors – Building Adaptive Macroeconomic Frameworks for Compounding Risks

This report examines how climate shocks, financial volatility, sovereign debt pressures, and geopolitical fragmentation interact to create compounding macroeconomic risks for emerging and developing economies. It argues that these interconnected stressors can produce non-linear effects, including capital flight, currency depreciation, food and energy inflation, shrinking fiscal space, and sovereign debt distress, making conventional approaches designed

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Six Major Risks in Modern Society: Research Progress and Future Directions

The authors review six major systemic risks facing modern societies: geopolitical risks, global meteorological disaster risks, regional environmental risks, global supply chain risks, systemic financial risks, and technology-mediated societal and institutional risks. They show how these risks increasingly interact across political, economic, environmental, technological, and social systems, allowing disruptions in one domain to generate cascading

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Global Risk Review

The July 2026 Global Risk Review identifies geopolitical escalation, climate extremes, digital misinformation, public health emergencies, and digital transformation as five key global risks. The report argues that these risks are increasingly reinforcing one another, creating a complex threat environment in which disruptions cascade across political, economic, social, and environmental systems. Through thematic analyses and

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The Financial System is a Giant Polycrisis Waiting to Happen

The author argues that today’s financial system faces a polycrisis characterized by multiple vulnerabilities including highly leveraged Treasury basis trades, record sovereign debt levels, commercial real estate refinancing pressures, growing exposure within opaque non-bank financial institutions, dangerously concentrated AI-driven equity markets, and destabilizing geopolitical pressures from conflicts involving Iran and Russia. Unlike 2008, where stress

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Shock Absorbers or Amplifiers? How Do Firms Transmit Shocks in a Polycrisis Era?

The authors explore how global oil prices and geopolitical tensions are reshaping the spread of financial risk among firms worldwide. Analyzing over 1,300 publicly listed companies in 55 countries between 2016 and 2023, they find that slow-building, long-term shifts in oil prices and geopolitical instability do the most damage, embedding risk more deeply into corporate

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‘History will tell’: as US pressure grows, Cuba edges closer to collapse amid mass exodus

The author examines Cuba’s ongoing polycrisis, characterized by the convergence of economic collapse, demographic decline, social fragmentation, and political repression. Mass emigration is accelerating population loss and weakening public institutions, while economic contraction across nearly all sectors has deepened inequality and eroded the foundations of Cuba’s once-renowned healthcare and education systems. Despite widespread disillusionment, internal

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