In the Cascading Risks Study, author Trond Undheim seeks to create five scenarios (Climate cataclysm by 2075; World war by 2075; Growth and collapse by 2075; Runaway AI by 2075; and Synthetic biology released in the wild by 2075 ) with which to spur deeper conversation about the existential risks to humanity and how they […]
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The authors argue that instead of seeing the polycrisis as a failure of multilateralism, analysis should focus on the ways in which multilateralism is adapting, and how it could better adapt, to intersecting global challenges. They propose a “digital public infrastructure” as a promising opportunity for multilateral cooperation to more effectively and equitably contend with
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In this episode of FuturePod, host Dr. Peter Hayward speaks with Drs. Megan Shipman and Michael Lawrence of the Cascade Institute about the current global polycrisis, and their recently published Positive Pathways report and accompanying workshop. Shipman, Lawrence, and Hayward discuss the four key factors proposed by Dr. Thomas Homer-Dixon that define today’s polycrisis, provide
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The Swiss Re Institute, the research arm of Swiss Re Reinsurance, harnesses their risk knowledge in re/insurance to produce data driven research with partner organizations, shared via publications such as SONAR. SONAR is an annual publication that focuses on outlining emerging risks based on early signals gathered throughout the year. The 2024 SONAR report features
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Global Tipping Points is a report, led by the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute and funded by the Bezos Earth Fund, that identifies negative and positive tipping points with regards to ongoing global crises. According to the report, the existence of negative tipping points shows that the threats posed by the current crises we
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This 19th edition of the World Economic Forum’s annual Global Risk Report is based on a risk perception survey conducted with nearly 1500 experts from academia, government, business, and civil society. Chapter 1 focuses on three risks that have grown of increasing concern over the next two years: false information, interstate violent conflict, and economic
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In this article, the authors, inspired by the polycrisis, identify and explore potential 14 traps affecting humanity in the global human context, brought about by the trajectory of our increasing complexity and influence on the Earth system. These traps are then categorized as global, technological, or structural traps and then further assessed to produce statistical
Evolution of the Polycrisis: Anthropocene Traps that Challenge Global Sustainability Read More »
Using expert solicitation, the authors identify 14 “evolutionary traps” (global, technological, and structural) that risk locking humanity into unfavorable (maladaptive) trajectories that seriously restrict its ability to adapt to the Anthropocene. These traps develop over four phases: initiation, scaling, masking (of harmful interactions), and trapping. The fourth phase involves one of five trapping mechanisms: constraints,
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In this article, the authors argue that the polycrisis is the manifestation of challenges outlined by the earlier scholarship of the “global problematique,” a set of systemically related factors including political, social, and ecological challenges such as pollution, resource depletion, and population growth. The polycrisis is recognized as the outcome of profound governance crises that
This tenth edition of insurance company AXA’s Future Risks Report surveyed 3,500 experts in 50 countries and a representative sample of 20,000 members of the general population in 15 countries. It found that the top three perceived risks are: 1) climate change, which for the first time occupied the top spot for both experts and
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