Climate

Sky-High Oil Prices. A Fertilizer Shortage. Now Add a “Super El Niño.”

This article argues that the war involving Iran, particularly through the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has driven up oil and fertilizer prices, triggering supply shortages that threaten global agricultural production just as climate pressures intensify. The anticipated arrival of a strong or “super” El Niño is expected to further disrupt weather patterns, compounding […]

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Beyond Climate: Sketching the Anatomy of our Polycrisis and Reflecting on Solutions

This article argues that climate change, biodiversity loss, and social inequity form an interconnected polycrisis driven by shared underlying causes and mutually reinforcing dynamics. It shows how environmental degradation and social inequity interact across systems, with high-income populations contributing disproportionately to these crises while experiencing fewer of their impacts. The article emphasizes that addressing this

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Governing Environmental Risk in an Era of Geopolitical Instability

This article argues that environmental change is now an immediate driver of geopolitical instability and market disruption, not just a long-term risk. It highlights how climate change and nature loss interact with geopolitical rivalry, supply chain fragility, and financial risk, creating reinforcing feedback loops that are often overlooked due to siloed approaches to risk assessment

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Dynamics of Polycrisis 2.0

This commentary reviews fifteen continuing dynamics of the polycrisis and examines how they have changed over the past year. It argues that global instability is increasingly driven by the interaction of multiple reinforcing crises, including proliferating armed conflicts, escalating geopolitical rivalry, the breakdown of international cooperation, rising inequality, democratic backsliding, and intensifying climate disruption. The

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How Do We Navigate Asia-Pacific’s Climate-Cyber Polycrisis?

The author argues that a new polycrisis is emerging at the intersection of climate change and cybersecurity, as extreme weather, natural disasters, and cyberattacks increasingly occur simultaneously and amplify one another. Focusing on Asia and the Pacific, the article shows how climate-driven disruptions to critical infrastructure create openings for cybercrime, particularly during moments of emergency

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The Implications of Overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth System Tipping Elements—a Review

The authors review how minimising the magnitude and duration of any temperature overshoot beyond 1.5 °C could decrease tipping risks for multiple Earth system tipping elements. They find that fast-responding systems such as coral reefs are especially vulnerable even to brief overshoots, while slow-responding systems such as polar ice sheets may avoid tipping if the

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What the Global Risks Report 2026 Really Says About the Urgency of Environmental Threats

This article highlights how environmental risks remain among the most severe global threats in the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026, yet their perceived urgency has shifted across time horizons. While short-term concerns are increasingly dominated by geopolitical fragmentation and misinformation, this shift does not reflect an easing of environmental threats, which are now

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It is Now 85 Seconds to Midnight

This statement from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists sets the Doomsday Clock at 85 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been, signaling an intensifying risk of global catastrophe. It highlights the convergence of escalating threats, including nuclear conflict, climate change, biotechnology risks, and unregulated artificial intelligence, all compounded by rising nationalism, autocracy,

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Global Catastrophic Risks 2026

This report presents the Global Challenges Foundation’s assessment of the most pressing catastrophic risks facing humanity today. It identifies five key threats: catastrophic climate change, ecological collapse, weapons of mass destruction, the use of AI in military decision-making, and near-Earth asteroids. The report highlights how these risks are becoming increasingly interconnected, accelerating and reinforcing one

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