Systemic Risk

Research and Innovation to Thrive in the Poly-crisis Age

This report explores how Europe’s research and innovation (R&I) policy can make a decisive contribution to Europe’s ‘earthshot’—a future of well-being, peace, and sustainability. It calls for R&I to adapt quickly; to be effective for a context of continual mega-crises, complexity, and insecurity; and to fully align with the resulting societal and policy challenges. The […]

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World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2023

Global Risks Report 2023

This 18th edition of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report is based on a risk perceptions survey of 1200 experts on the likelihood, severity, and interconnections between 37 global risks. It finds that the biggest risk in the next two years is the cost of living crisis, and the biggest risk in the next

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Global Warming Overshoots Increase Risks of Climate Tipping Cascades in a Network Model

The research examines the risk of climate tipping under various temperature overshoot scenarios using a simplified network model. It shows that temporary overshoots can increase the tipping risks up to 72% compared with non-overshoot scenarios. It suggests that to avoid high-end climate risks, low-temperature overshoots and stabilization of long-term temperatures at or below current levels

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What is a Global Polycrisis? And how is it Different from a Systemic Risk?

This discussion paper proposes that “A global polycrisis occurs when crises in multiple systems become causally entangled in ways that significantly reduce humanity’s prospects. These interacting crises produce harms greater than the sum of those the crises would produce in isolation, were their host systems not so deeply intertwined” (p. 2). The authors then elaborate

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Polycrisis and Long-Term Thinking

Polycrisis and Long-Term Thinking: Reimagining Development in Asia and the Pacific Foresight Brief

This Foresight Brief argues that conventional risk management frameworks cannot grapple with the growing number of systemic and existential risks generated by decades of globalization. Instead, these risks require more long-term thinking – “intentional consideration of what might happen in the future, the choices for influencing it and the consequences of those choices” (p. 10).

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Briefing note on systemic risk

This briefing note presents an integrated perspective on climate, environmental, and disaster risk science and practice concerning systemic risk. It provides an overview of the evolving concepts of systemic risk over time and identifies commonalities across terminologies and perspectives used in different contexts.

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Anatomy and Resilience of the Global Production Ecosystem

The authors argue that the worldwide production and distribution of food, fuel, and fibre has created a “global production ecosystem” subject to immense simplification, intensification, and control by humans attempting to maximize efficiency. The resulting system is homogenous, highly connected, and has weak feedbacks – “features [that] converge to yield high and predictable supplies of

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Things are Different Today: The Challenge of Global Systemic Risks

The authors clarify the systemic risk concept using the Global Financial Crisis as an example. They explain how global systems involve micro and macro-dynamics interacting with each other and their environment, leading to stable periods and multiple possible future scenarios. Some of these scenarios may pose catastrophic risks, so that agents must confront systemic risk.

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