Systemic Risk Archives

Anticipatory Skill and Structural Biases of a Major Global Risk Assessment

The authors evaluate the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Reports (GRRs) from 2006–2024 by comparing survey-based risk likelihoods with a multi-decadal database of national shocks, and by tracing how surveys are translated into the reports’ narratives. Across eight shock categories, they find limited and uneven prospective alignment with observed shock frequency — with only geopolitical […]

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Principles for Just and Effective Systemic Risk Governance

This article argues that addressing the polycrisis requires stronger approaches to systemic risk governance. The authors propose that effective governance must move beyond sector-specific responses and be guided by shared principles capable of addressing complex, interconnected challenges. They present ten principles to guide the development of systemic risk assessment and response across multiple domains: universal

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The Urgency of Building Systemic Risk Capacity in a Polycrisis World

The authors argue that the world urgently needs to build systemic risk capacity to address an unprecedented polycrisis. They explain that modern crises are unprecedented in their scale, speed, and global interconnectedness, amplified by inequality, environmental degradation, and advanced technologies. Because cascading and compounding risks now routinely overwhelm existing institutions, the authors call for a

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Shock Absorbers or Amplifiers? How Do Firms Transmit Shocks in a Polycrisis Era?

The authors explore how global oil prices and geopolitical tensions are reshaping the spread of financial risk among firms worldwide. Analyzing over 1,300 publicly listed companies in 55 countries between 2016 and 2023, they find that slow-building, long-term shifts in oil prices and geopolitical instability do the most damage, embedding risk more deeply into corporate

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Governing Environmental Risk in an Era of Geopolitical Instability

This article argues that environmental change is now an immediate driver of geopolitical instability and market disruption, not just a long-term risk. It highlights how climate change and nature loss interact with geopolitical rivalry, supply chain fragility, and financial risk, creating reinforcing feedback loops that are often overlooked due to siloed approaches to risk assessment

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Reflections by Thomas Homer-Dixon

In this interview, Dr.Thomas Homer-Dixon reflects on his intellectual journey from studying political science and human conflict to developing a broader framework for understanding interconnected global crises. He explains the concept of polycrisis as the synchronization of multiple, linked crises rather than a coincidence of separate shocks, suggesting that today’s converging disruptions may reflect deeper

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Four Global Risk Trends Likely to Shape the Planet through 2030

This article argues that the most consequential risks of the coming years will emerge not from individual crises but from their interaction, eroding trust and fragmenting systems. It identifies four risk trends likely to shape the path to 2030: the emergence of an increasingly polycentric world as US global leadership becomes more selective; a deepening

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How Systemic Risks Threaten Global Health Security (And What We Can Do)

In this Cross Currents conversation, ASRA members discuss the systemic risks threatening global health security, including pandemics, antimicrobial resistance, climate-driven health crises, and fragmented global governance. They emphasize the need to move beyond siloed, reactive responses toward integrated, multi-level strategies that address the root causes of health insecurity. Key themes include the urgency of fostering

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Global Risks Report 2026: Geopolitical and Economic Risks Rise in New Age of Competition

The Global Risks Report 2026 explores how a new competitive world order is reshaping global risks across domains. Over the next two years, geoeconomic confrontation is identified as the most severe risk, with economic and societal instability also rising sharply. Over a ten-year horizon, inequality emerges as the most interconnected long-term risk, while artificial intelligence shows the

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