Systemic Risk Archives

Navigating a Fragmenting World Order – Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Risks for Canadian Financial Institutions

This report examines how the shift from hyperglobalisation toward a more fragmented, geoeconomic world order is creating new and interconnected risks for Canadian financial institutions. Building on a “Triple Exposure” framework of Canada’s structural position, it identifies three compounding layers of risk: operational risks arising from sanctions, regulatory conflicts, cyber threats, data restrictions, and dependence

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The Predictive Power of Systemic Risk Indicators Under Extreme Scenarios

The authors examine the predictive power of systemic risk indicators for China’s listed financial institutions between 2008 and 2025. They analyse indicator performance from three angles: macro-level timeliness, market performance of financial institutions, and early warning of bank distress. The authors find that fluctuations in systemic risk indicators align closely with periods of financial stress,

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The ‘Reverse Kindleberger Trap’: Reasons to Worry About the Next Financial Crisis

The author examines the risk of a future financial crisis occurring without a dominant power willing and able to stabilise the international economic order. Lubin contrasts the US response to the 2008 crisis with the conditions likely to shape a Trump-era crisis, citing the administration’s selective and transactional approach to currency swap arrangements, interventions by

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Global Risk Review

The July 2026 Global Risk Review identifies geopolitical escalation, climate extremes, digital misinformation, public health emergencies, and digital transformation as five key global risks. The report argues that these risks are increasingly reinforcing one another, creating a complex threat environment in which disruptions cascade across political, economic, social, and environmental systems. Through thematic analyses and

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Global Insurance Market Report (GIMAR)

This mid-year report presents the interim findings of the IAIS 2026 Global Monitoring Exercise, concluding that the global insurance sector remains resilient despite growing macro-financial and geopolitical uncertainty. While insurers have maintained stable solvency, liquidity, and profitability, the report finds that aggregate systemic risk scores edged higher at year-end 2025, driven mainly by increased asset

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Anticipatory Skill and Structural Biases of a Major Global Risk Assessment

The authors evaluate the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Reports (GRRs) from 2006–2024 by comparing survey-based risk likelihoods with a multi-decadal database of national shocks, and by tracing how surveys are translated into the reports’ narratives. Across eight shock categories, they find limited and uneven prospective alignment with observed shock frequency — with only geopolitical

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Principles for Just and Effective Systemic Risk Governance

This article argues that addressing the polycrisis requires stronger approaches to systemic risk governance. The authors propose that effective governance must move beyond sector-specific responses and be guided by shared principles capable of addressing complex, interconnected challenges. They present ten principles to guide the development of systemic risk assessment and response across multiple domains: universal

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The Urgency of Building Systemic Risk Capacity in a Polycrisis World

The authors argue that the world urgently needs to build systemic risk capacity to address an unprecedented polycrisis. They explain that modern crises are unprecedented in their scale, speed, and global interconnectedness, amplified by inequality, environmental degradation, and advanced technologies. Because cascading and compounding risks now routinely overwhelm existing institutions, the authors call for a

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Shock Absorbers or Amplifiers? How Do Firms Transmit Shocks in a Polycrisis Era?

The authors explore how global oil prices and geopolitical tensions are reshaping the spread of financial risk among firms worldwide. Analyzing over 1,300 publicly listed companies in 55 countries between 2016 and 2023, they find that slow-building, long-term shifts in oil prices and geopolitical instability do the most damage, embedding risk more deeply into corporate

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Governing Environmental Risk in an Era of Geopolitical Instability

This article argues that environmental change is now an immediate driver of geopolitical instability and market disruption, not just a long-term risk. It highlights how climate change and nature loss interact with geopolitical rivalry, supply chain fragility, and financial risk, creating reinforcing feedback loops that are often overlooked due to siloed approaches to risk assessment

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