Systemic Risk

Subjective-Probability Forecasts of Existential Risk: Initial Results from a Hybrid Persuasion-Forecasting Tournament

This article presents a multi-stage forecasting tournament designed to evaluate how experts and generalist superforecasters assess short- and long-term existential risks to humanity, with a focus on artificial intelligence. The study finds that specialists consistently assign higher probabilities to catastrophic and existential threats than generalists, especially for long-term AI risks. Despite structured debate and incentives […]

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Leading Beyond Barriers: Creating Impact in an Age of Polycrisis

This paper examines the structural impediments to addressing systemic global challenges in a polycrisis environment. The analysis identifies two primary categories of barriers: belief systems that disconnect individuals from systemic issues, and social barriers that hinder collective action. Drawing on successful historical interventions—such as the eradication of smallpox and the elimination of polio—the authors outline

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Systemic Risk and the Polycrisis

The author explores the concepts of systemic risk, polycrisis, and catastrophic risk, explaining how interconnected failures can cascade across diverse systems, threatening global stability. He emphasizes how systemic risk and polycrisis expose both the vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities of our global systems. The article illustrates that while a single failure can trigger widespread collapse, history

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Multipolarization – Munich Security Report 2025

This report presents the findings of the Munich Security Index 2025—an index of global risk perceptions in the G7 and “BICS” countries. It examines the implications of multipolarization in the international order, emphasizing that current trends indicate the negative effects of greater multipolarity are prevailing, as widening divisions among major powers and competing governance models

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The Thematic Assessment Report on Interlinkages Among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health

This report explores the interconnected crises and challenges of biodiversity loss, water availability and quality, food insecurity, health risks, and climate change, focusing on their interlinkages. It assesses current and future trends, emphasizing biodiversity and nature’s contributions to people. The report also examines response options and governance strategies to promote coordinated decision-making, minimize trade-offs, and

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A Systematic Review of Assessing Climate Change Risks on Species and Ecosystems: Bibliometric Overview, Concepts, Approaches, and Trends

The authors present a bibliometric analysis of the research landscape on climate change risk assessment for species and ecosystems, identifying key themes, trends and collaborations. They integrate correlative, mechanistic, trait-based and criteria-based approaches, offering a comprehensive evaluation of their strengths and limitations. Five foundational concepts are highlighted as central to assessing risk: exposure, sensitivity, adaptivity,

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Navigating New Horizons: A global foresight report on planetary health and human wellbeing

The report outlines the results of the strategic foresight and horizon scanning developed by UNEP to help navigate current and future uncertainty and disruptive change. It presents insights on eight critical global shifts that are accelerating the planetary crisis of climate change, biodiversity and nature loss and, pollution and waste.

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