Geopolitics and International Security

Global Risk Forecast 2026

The Crisis24 Global Risk Forecast 2026 provides a strategic outlook on the evolving risk landscape heading into 2026. It identifies a global environment marked by intensifying geopolitical competition, persistent economic volatility, increasing cyber vulnerabilities, and escalating climate disruptions. The report emphasizes the convergence of immediate shocks with deeper structural stressors, highlighting how interconnected and compounding […]

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Examining the Three Existential Threats of the 21st Century: Artificial Intelligence, Climate Change, and Nuclear Weapons

The authors critically examine three existential threats facing humanity in the 21st century: advanced artificial intelligence, escalating climate change, and nuclear weapons. Drawing on scientific consensus and growing institutional concern, they explore the structural features that make each threat existential and analyze their dangerous interactions. The authors propose a framework for future inquiry, policy, and

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2026 Emergency Watchlist

The Watchlist 2026 report by the International Rescue Committee (IRC) highlights the deepening intersection of conflict, climate change, and economic instability across 20 crisis-prone countries. It warns of a dangerous divergence: while humanitarian needs are surging—with over 239 million people requiring assistance, catastrophic food insecurity in six countries, and the highest number of active conflicts

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Mapping the Hope Attractor: A Conversation with Thomas- Homer Dixon

In this conversation, Thomas Homer-Dixon introduces the Cascade Institute’s Polycrisis Core Model (PCM), a novel framework designed to map and analyse interactions among 11 critical global systems, each with multiple potential future states. The model employs cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis to evaluate over four million internally consistent scenarios, ultimately identifying 11 distinct “attractor” states. These

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Tackling the Complex Links Between Climate Change, Conflict, and Health

The authors underscore the urgent need to address the interconnected threats of climate change, conflict, and health. They highlight how these threats not only cause direct harm, such as heat-related deaths and conflict-driven mortality, but also compound vulnerabilities by damaging health systems, disrupting essential services, and fueling cycles of instability. Fragile and conflict-affected states are

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The Weaponization of Emerging Technologies and Their Impact on Global Risk: A Perspective from the PfPC Emerging Security Challenges Working Group

The authors examine how emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence, synthetic biology, quantum computing, and neurotechnology, are reshaping global security risks. The study argues that traditional threat-based security models are inadequate for addressing the complex, transnational, and increasingly weaponized nature of these technologies. The authors propose a shift toward risk-based frameworks that emphasize resilience, systemic

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Global Systemic Stresses: Understanding the Drivers of Polycrisis

This report introduces the Cascade Institute’s Stress-Trigger-Crisis model, a systemic framework that distinguishes between slow-moving stresses that erode the resilience of global systems and fast-moving trigger events that precipitate crises. It identifies 14 global systemic stresses that affect nine vital systems: climate, ecology, food, energy, economy, infrastructure, health, social order and governance, and world order.

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The Polycrisis Part I: War

In this mini-series, journalist Anthony Bartaway explores the concept of the current polycrisis. He examines its potential causes, including the collapse of the international community, the spread of disinformation, and escalating environmental issues. In the first episode, Bartaway focuses on the rise in the number of wars worldwide, using this trend to illustrate how overlapping

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Global Strategic Trends

The seventh edition of Global Strategic Trends presents a comprehensive analysis of global conditions projected to 2055. It identifies six interconnected drivers of change: geopolitical competition, demographic shifts, climate and environmental pressures, technological advances, economic transformation, and rising inequality. These forces are accompanied by five major contradictions, such as growing interconnectivity alongside fragmentation and rising

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