The Watchlist 2026 report by the International Rescue Committee (IRC) highlights the deepening intersection of conflict, climate change, and economic instability across 20 crisis-prone countries. It warns of a dangerous divergence: while humanitarian needs are surging—with over 239 million people requiring assistance, catastrophic food insecurity in six countries, and the highest number of active conflicts […]
2026 Emergency Watchlist Read More »
The November Global Risk Review Report delivers concise, strategic analysis of key geopolitical, economic and humanitarian developments shaping global stability. This edition highlights a world defined by enduring geopolitical volatility, systemic fragility and accelerating power shifts.
Global Risk Review: November 2025 Read More »
In this conversation, Thomas Homer-Dixon introduces the Cascade Institute’s Polycrisis Core Model (PCM), a novel framework designed to map and analyse interactions among 11 critical global systems, each with multiple potential future states. The model employs cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis to evaluate over four million internally consistent scenarios, ultimately identifying 11 distinct “attractor” states. These
Mapping the Hope Attractor: A Conversation with Thomas- Homer Dixon Read More »
The authors underscore the urgent need to address the interconnected threats of climate change, conflict, and health. They highlight how these threats not only cause direct harm, such as heat-related deaths and conflict-driven mortality, but also compound vulnerabilities by damaging health systems, disrupting essential services, and fueling cycles of instability. Fragile and conflict-affected states are
Tackling the Complex Links Between Climate Change, Conflict, and Health Read More »
The authors examine how emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence, synthetic biology, quantum computing, and neurotechnology, are reshaping global security risks. The study argues that traditional threat-based security models are inadequate for addressing the complex, transnational, and increasingly weaponized nature of these technologies. The authors propose a shift toward risk-based frameworks that emphasize resilience, systemic
This report introduces the Cascade Institute’s Stress-Trigger-Crisis model, a systemic framework that distinguishes between slow-moving stresses that erode the resilience of global systems and fast-moving trigger events that precipitate crises. It identifies 14 global systemic stresses that affect nine vital systems: climate, ecology, food, energy, economy, infrastructure, health, social order and governance, and world order.
Global Systemic Stresses: Understanding the Drivers of Polycrisis Read More »
In this mini-series, journalist Anthony Bartaway explores the concept of the current polycrisis. He examines its potential causes, including the collapse of the international community, the spread of disinformation, and escalating environmental issues. In the first episode, Bartaway focuses on the rise in the number of wars worldwide, using this trend to illustrate how overlapping
The Polycrisis Part I: War Read More »
The seventh edition of Global Strategic Trends presents a comprehensive analysis of global conditions projected to 2055. It identifies six interconnected drivers of change: geopolitical competition, demographic shifts, climate and environmental pressures, technological advances, economic transformation, and rising inequality. These forces are accompanied by five major contradictions, such as growing interconnectivity alongside fragmentation and rising
Global Strategic Trends Read More »
The Finnish Government’s Future Report 2025 presents a strategic foresight analysis exploring global developments up to 2045 through four possible scenarios: cooperation, tech dominance, geopolitical blocs, and collapse. It identifies 26 change drivers and 14 key uncertainties across geopolitics, technology, environment, and society, aiming to guide Finland’s long-term policy planning. The report emphasizes resilience, sustainability,
Finnish Government’s Future Report 2025 Read More »
In this article, Adam Tooze revisits the concept of “polycrisis,” noting that while the term remains relevant in certain regional and institutional contexts, it appears less applicable as a descriptor of 2025 landscape. He contrasts the intense disruptions of 2020–2022 with the current relative calm in financial markets, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Tooze suggests that
Polycrisis — is this the sequel? Read More »
