This Foresight Brief argues that conventional risk management frameworks cannot grapple with the growing number of systemic and existential risks generated by decades of globalization. Instead, these risks require more long-term thinking – “intentional consideration of what might happen in the future, the choices for influencing it and the consequences of those choices” (p. 10). […]
In this blog, Richard Hames discusses polycrisis, societal collapse, existential risk, and related themes. Notable entries include: · “Existential Risk and The Method of Collapsology” (23 June 2022) · “The decisive moment” (01 July 2022) · “On Staying Woke in Polycrisis Futurism” (06 July 2022) · “Attention Deficit Hyperobject Disorder” (18 July 2022) · “The Stakes of Sri Lanka”
The report provides an overview of several catastrophic risks that are potentially global in scope: weapons of mass destruction, pandemics, artificial intelligence, asteroids, climate change, super-volcanic eruptions, ecological collapse, population growth, and climate tipping points. For each risk, it explores the key factors that affect the risk levels and the extant governance frameworks that address
Global Catastrophic Risks 2022: A Year of Colliding Consequences Read More »
The authors seek to build an analytical framework to help explore climate change’s contribution to Global Catastrophic Risk, including the role of its indirect and systemic impacts.
Assessing Climate Change’s Contribution to Global Catastrophic Risk Read More »
This guide defines global catastrophic biological risks (GCBRs) as “risks that threaten great worldwide damage to human welfare, and place the long-term trajectory of humankind in jeopardy… [and are] broadly biological in nature”. The author then analyzes historical, current, and potential biological risks (e.g., The Black Death, horsepox, etc.) and argues that some historical biological
Reducing Global Catastrophic Biological Risks Read More »
Seth D. Baum and Anthony M. Barrett argue that there are underappreciated systemic interactions between catastrophic risks. Actions taken to mitigate one catastrophic risk may increase or reduce another catastrophic risk. To address these interactions, leaders must use an “integrated assessment” of the whole collection of global catastrophic risks to ensure efforts to remediate one
Towards and Integrated Assessment of Global Catastrophic Risk Read More »
The authors clarify the systemic risk concept using the Global Financial Crisis as an example. They explain how global systems involve micro and macro-dynamics interacting with each other and their environment, leading to stable periods and multiple possible future scenarios. Some of these scenarios may pose catastrophic risks, so that agents must confront systemic risk.
Things are Different Today: The Challenge of Global Systemic Risks Read More »
Global catastrophic biological risks (GCBRs) are hazards caused by biological agents that result in massive disruptions to society. The authors analyze historical GCBRs, such as H1N1 and the Black Death, and their interactions with other complex aspects of society. The rapid depopulation caused by the Black Death, for example, generated “broad, lasting, and complex effects
Global Catastrophic Biological Risks: Toward a Working Definition Read More »
This book explores global catastrophic risks that threaten civilization and humanity’s continued existence, addressing key methodological, ethical and policy issues. Chapters by leading experts address such risks as astronomical and earth-based natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, artificial intelligence, and social collapse.
Global Catastrophic Risks Read More »
Glen Kuecker argues that we are facing a catastrophic collapse of the global system, citing climate change, ecological destruction, pandemics, fuel shortages, warfare, and global hunger as interconnected points of failure. He suggests that sustainability perspectives miss the fundamental reality of the global crisis.
The Perfect Storm: Catastrophic Collapse in the 21st Century Read More »
