Catastrophic and Existential Risk

Lessons from the Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk 2026

This post reflects on the 2026 Cambridge Conference on Catastrophic Risk, examining governance challenges across nuclear war, AI and the information ecosystem, pandemics, and climate change. It argues that the field is increasingly shifting its attention from human extinction toward potentially severe global catastrophes and that prevention alone is insufficient, particularly given persistent failures to

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Global Risk Report 2026

The United Nations’ Global Risk Report 2026 examines how perceptions of global risks have shifted since 2024, drawing on a survey of 1,300 stakeholders worldwide. The report finds that political risks have moved to the centre of the risk landscape, with large-scale war and geopolitical tensions among the most important, imminent, and interconnected threats, while

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No Place to Hide? Regional Resilience and Vulnerability to Global Catastrophic Risk

The authors examine which locations are most resilient to global catastrophic risks, including nuclear war, near-Earth objects, major volcanic eruptions, large-scale cyberattacks, electromagnetic pulses, geomagnetic storms, and pandemics. They find that no location is resilient across all scenarios, although Australia demonstrates resilience across the widest range of risks considered. Common resilience factors include geographic isolation,

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Six Major Risks in Modern Society: Research Progress and Future Directions

The authors review six major systemic risks facing modern societies: geopolitical risks, global meteorological disaster risks, regional environmental risks, global supply chain risks, systemic financial risks, and technology-mediated societal and institutional risks. They show how these risks increasingly interact across political, economic, environmental, technological, and social systems, allowing disruptions in one domain to generate cascading

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The Implications of Overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth System Tipping Elements—a Review

The authors review how minimising the magnitude and duration of any temperature overshoot beyond 1.5 °C could decrease tipping risks for multiple Earth system tipping elements. They find that fast-responding systems such as coral reefs are especially vulnerable even to brief overshoots, while slow-responding systems such as polar ice sheets may avoid tipping if the

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It is Now 85 Seconds to Midnight

This statement from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists sets the Doomsday Clock at 85 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been, signaling an intensifying risk of global catastrophe. It highlights the convergence of escalating threats, including nuclear conflict, climate change, biotechnology risks, and unregulated artificial intelligence, all compounded by rising nationalism, autocracy,

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Global Catastrophic Risks 2026

This report presents the Global Challenges Foundation’s assessment of the most pressing catastrophic risks facing humanity today. It identifies five key threats: catastrophic climate change, ecological collapse, weapons of mass destruction, the use of AI in military decision-making, and near-Earth asteroids. The report highlights how these risks are becoming increasingly interconnected, accelerating and reinforcing one

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Updating Mental Models of Risk

The authors argue that disasters are no longer isolated events but manifestations of an interconnected complex risk landscape in which cascading and compounding hazards interact across systems. Drawing on recent examples such as California’s year-round wildfires and Hurricane Helene’s inland flooding, they illustrate how overlapping shocks amplify vulnerability and strain governance capacities. They contend that

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Navigating Systemic Risk in the Age of Polycrisis

In this episode, Ajay Gambhir, Director of Systemic Risk Assessment at ASRA, explores the concept of polycrisis, showing how climate change is deeply interconnected with other global challenges across social, economic, and political systems. He highlights how crises reinforce one another, creating complex feedbacks that demand integrated solutions. A central theme is inequality, which shapes

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The Price of Power: Navigating the Great Simplification

In this Cascade Institute Speaker Series episode, Dr. Nate Hagens, presents a compelling framework for understanding our world as a complex, energy-dependent “Superorganism” operating far from equilibrium. He analyzes potential future scenarios that humanity may be heading toward and introduces the idea that small, focused efforts can elevate entire systems to a higher order. This

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