Catastrophic and Existential Risk

SONAR 2024: New Emerging Risk Insights

The Swiss Re Institute, the research arm of Swiss Re Reinsurance, harnesses their risk knowledge in re/insurance to produce data driven research with partner organizations, shared via publications such as SONAR. SONAR is an annual publication that focuses on outlining emerging risks based on early signals gathered throughout the year. The 2024 SONAR report features […]

SONAR 2024: New Emerging Risk Insights Read More »

Global Tipping Points Report 2023

Global Tipping Points is a report, led by the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute and funded by the Bezos Earth Fund, that identifies negative and positive tipping points with regards to ongoing global crises. According to the report, the existence of negative tipping points shows that the threats posed by the current crises we

Global Tipping Points Report 2023 Read More »

Evolution of the Polycrisis: Anthropocene Traps that Challenge Global Sustainability

In this article, the authors, inspired by the polycrisis, identify and explore potential 14 traps affecting humanity in the global human context, brought about by the trajectory of our increasing complexity and influence on the Earth system. These traps are then categorized as global, technological, or structural traps and then further assessed to produce statistical

Evolution of the Polycrisis: Anthropocene Traps that Challenge Global Sustainability Read More »

The Era of Global Risk: An Introduction to Existential Risk Studies

This edited volume argues that humanity has entered a fundamentally novel era of existential risk. These risks range from global-scale natural disasters (like volcanic super-eruptions) to anthropogenic environmental destabilization (like climate change and loss of biosphere integrity), and from calamities that spread rapidly around our highly networked planet (like viruses and cyber threats) to the

The Era of Global Risk: An Introduction to Existential Risk Studies Read More »

The Global Polycrisis Reflects a Civilizational Crisis that Calls for Systemic Alternatives

Zack Walsh argues that the current level of globalization, number of systemic risks, and continued depletion of the Earth’s resources will generate some sort of societal collapse. He details these systemic risks, defines polycrisis and existential risk, and discusses the distressing impacts of climate change on our global trajectory. “Current forecasts suggest that unless we

The Global Polycrisis Reflects a Civilizational Crisis that Calls for Systemic Alternatives Read More »

Polycrisis and Long-Term Thinking

Polycrisis and Long-Term Thinking: Reimagining Development in Asia and the Pacific Foresight Brief

This Foresight Brief argues that conventional risk management frameworks cannot grapple with the growing number of systemic and existential risks generated by decades of globalization. Instead, these risks require more long-term thinking – “intentional consideration of what might happen in the future, the choices for influencing it and the consequences of those choices” (p. 10).

Polycrisis and Long-Term Thinking: Reimagining Development in Asia and the Pacific Foresight Brief Read More »

Crude Futures

In this blog, Richard Hames discusses polycrisis, societal collapse, existential risk, and related themes. Notable entries include: · “Existential Risk and The Method of Collapsology” (23 June 2022) · “The decisive moment” (01 July 2022) · “On Staying Woke in Polycrisis Futurism” (06 July 2022) · “Attention Deficit Hyperobject Disorder” (18 July 2022) · “The Stakes of Sri Lanka”

Crude Futures Read More »

Global Catastrophic Risks 2022: A Year of Colliding Consequences

The report provides an overview of several catastrophic risks that are potentially global in scope: weapons of mass destruction, pandemics, artificial intelligence, asteroids, climate change, super-volcanic eruptions, ecological collapse, population growth, and climate tipping points. For each risk, it explores the key factors that affect the risk levels and the extant governance frameworks that address

Global Catastrophic Risks 2022: A Year of Colliding Consequences Read More »

Reducing Global Catastrophic Biological Risks

This guide defines global catastrophic biological risks (GCBRs) as “risks that threaten great worldwide damage to human welfare, and place the long-term trajectory of humankind in jeopardy… [and are] broadly biological in nature”. The author then analyzes historical, current, and potential biological risks (e.g., The Black Death, horsepox, etc.) and argues that some historical biological

Reducing Global Catastrophic Biological Risks Read More »

Towards and Integrated Assessment of Global Catastrophic Risk

Seth D. Baum and Anthony M. Barrett argue that there are underappreciated systemic interactions between catastrophic risks. Actions taken to mitigate one catastrophic risk may increase or reduce another catastrophic risk. To address these interactions, leaders must use an “integrated assessment” of the whole collection of global catastrophic risks to ensure efforts to remediate one

Towards and Integrated Assessment of Global Catastrophic Risk Read More »

Scroll to Top