Catastrophic and Existential Risk

The Global Catastrophic Risk Index: Navigating Risk in an Uncertain Future

This second issue of the Global Governance Forum’s Global Catastrophic Risk Index (GCRI) examines the complexity of global risk and presents a clear picture of vulnerabilities across nations. The Index evaluates 163 countries using 109 indicators sourced from institutions such as the World Bank, IMF, and United Nations. It identifies the most at-risk countries as […]

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Planet in Polycrisis

In this episode, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Executive Director of the Cascade Institute, and Manjana Milkoreit, postdoctoral researcher at the University of Oslo, explore the growing risks of global polycrisis. Through the lens of complexity science, Homer-Dixon explains how tightly coupled human and Earth systems are increasingly vulnerable to self-amplifying cascades—interlinked crises driven by energy use, environmental

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Cascading socio-economic and financial impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war differ across sectors and regions

The authors examine how financial markets amplify the cascading socio-economic impacts of global food and energy trade disruptions. Applying their methodology to the Russia-Ukraine war, they reveal regionally diverse effects, including rising energy prices, market volatility, and worsening food affordability. Their findings underscore the need to address cascading risks to strengthen economic and food system

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Extinction of the human species: What could cause it and how likely is it to occur?

The author explores the growing body of scientific and scholarly work on human extinction and existential risks, focusing on the question: “What could kill everyone, and how likely is it to happen?” This review provides an overview of plausible causes of human extinction identified in current academic literature, includes expert judgments on their likelihood, and

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Systemic Risk and the Polycrisis

The author explores the concepts of systemic risk, polycrisis, and catastrophic risk, explaining how interconnected failures can cascade across diverse systems, threatening global stability. He emphasizes how systemic risk and polycrisis expose both the vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities of our global systems. The article illustrates that while a single failure can trigger widespread collapse, history

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Managing and Mitigating Future Public Health Risks: Planetary Boundaries, Global Catastrophic Risk, and Inclusive Wealth

The authors argue for a more integrated framework to understand existential risks by bridging two dominant paradigms: Planetary Boundaries and Global Catastrophic Risks. Using the COVID-19 pandemic as a case study, the authors analyze how pandemics reveal the interconnectedness of public health, environmental degradation, and global systems. They critique the fragmentation between the Planetary Boundaries

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The Global Risks Report 2025

The Global Risks Report 2025 presents insights from the Global Risks Perception Survey 2024-2025, which gathered input from over 900 experts worldwide. The report analyzes global risks across three timeframes—immediate (2025), short-to medium-term (2027), and long-term (2035)—to help decision-makers navigate current and future challenges.

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The Los Angeles Fires, Polycrisis, & How to Live in Collapse | Urgent Futures Rapid Response #2

Jesse Damiani analyzes the Los Angeles fires, emphasizing their devastating impact on the city’s infrastructure and communities. He argues that these types of unprecedented weather events are symptoms of a broader “ecological overshoot,” which he identifies as the primary driver of a state of collapse. Damiani also explores strategies for resilience and adaptation to navigate

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