Niall Ferguson proposes that “Superficially… [it’s] no more than a very nasty coincidence that the latest wave of the pandemic should happen at the same time as so many extreme weather events and a wave of social and political unrest. On closer inspection, however, we can see that these are connections between these disasters – […]
The World’s Cascade of Disasters is Not a Coincidence Read More »
This guide defines global catastrophic biological risks (GCBRs) as “risks that threaten great worldwide damage to human welfare, and place the long-term trajectory of humankind in jeopardy… [and are] broadly biological in nature”. The author then analyzes historical, current, and potential biological risks (e.g., The Black Death, horsepox, etc.) and argues that some historical biological
Reducing Global Catastrophic Biological Risks Read More »
Melanie Hart, Jordan Link, and Ngor Luong of the Center for American Progress translate and discuss Chinese Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission Secretary-General Chen Yixin’s effort to explain President Xi Jinping’s “ten fundamental insights” on “preventing and resolving major risks”. Yixin considers black swan events and risk interactions, noting that “All categories of risk
Taking Strategic Initiative to Prevent and Defuse Major Risks Read More »
Global catastrophic biological risks (GCBRs) are hazards caused by biological agents that result in massive disruptions to society. The authors analyze historical GCBRs, such as H1N1 and the Black Death, and their interactions with other complex aspects of society. The rapid depopulation caused by the Black Death, for example, generated “broad, lasting, and complex effects
Global Catastrophic Biological Risks: Toward a Working Definition Read More »
The authors argue that the world constitutes a tightly coupled, global complex system that endogenously generates systemic risks and vulnerabilities as it grows more complex. After discussing complexity, risk, and networks as key elements of their framework, they provide case studies of global systemic risk in trade, finance, infrastructure, climate change, and public health. The
The Emergence of Global Systemic Risk Read More »
Ian Goldin and Mike Mariathasan argue that systemic risk is endemic to globalization that cannot be removed. “It is a process to be managed rather than a problem to be solved” (p. xiii). But rather than retreat from globalization and forfeit its considerable benefits, the authors argue that systemic risk requires global governance reforms to
The Butterfly Defect: How Globalization Creates Systemic Risks, and What to Do about it Read More »
Glen Kuecker argues that we are facing a catastrophic collapse of the global system, citing climate change, ecological destruction, pandemics, fuel shortages, warfare, and global hunger as interconnected points of failure. He suggests that sustainability perspectives miss the fundamental reality of the global crisis.
The Perfect Storm: Catastrophic Collapse in the 21st Century Read More »
