Geopolitics and International Security

How Many Shocks Can the World Take?

Stephen M. Walt considers a number of global shocks that have all happened in close temporal proximity to one another and are “overwhelming our collective ability to respond”: the breakup of the Soviet empire, China’s rise, 9/11 and the global war on terror, the 2008 financial meltdown, the Arab Spring, the global refugee crisis, the

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Megathreats: Ten Dangerous Trends that Imperil Our Future and How to Survive Them

The author defines megathreats as “severe problems that could cause vast damage and misery and cannot be solved quickly or easily” (p. 4). “We are facing megathreats unlike anything we have faced before… [and] they overlap and reinforce one another” (p. 5). Roubini explores ten megathreats: debt accumulation and debt traps; easy money and financial crises;

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The Polycrisis

The Polycrisis is a newsletter and a series of essays and panels exploring intersecting crises with a particular emphasis on the political economy of climate change and global North/South dynamics.

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Imperfect Notes on an Imperfect World

Christopher Hobson often discusses the polycrisis in his blog posts, emphasizing the need to “honestly recognise and reckon with the complexity of the present moment.” “Polycrisis: In this Valley of Dying Stars” (18 August 2022) “Seeing Polycrisis: Facing Fractals” (26 August 2022) “Polycrisis and Metamorphosis: When Change Outpaces Comprehension” (2 September 2022) “Picking up Polycrisis:

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An Embarrassment of Changes: International Relations and the COVID-19 Pandemic

Mathew Davies and Christopher Hobson argue that the COVID-19 pandemic is part of an ongoing polycrisis that requires significant changes to the ways in which the discipline of International Relations understands the world. They propose that “Polycrisis is a way of capturing the tangled mix of challenges and changes [that] closely interact with one another,

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Chartbook

Adam Tooze frequently discusses various aspects of the polycrisis in his blog posts. Notable entries include: “Defining polycrisis – from crisis pictures to the crisis matrix” (24 June 2022) “Calibrating the polycrisis – with the help of the International Bank of Settlements” (26 June 2022) “Polycrisis – Thinking on the Tightrope” (29 October 2022) “Haiti

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The Power of Crisis: How Three Threats – And Our Response – Will Change the World

Ian Bremmer argues that the world faces three major crises—pandemics, climate change, and disruptive technologies (AI, lethal autonomous weapons, cyberwarfare, and biotechnology)—but our ability to respond effectively is hampered by broken American politics and the worsening rivalry between the United States and China. The three crises, however, present an opportunity and the necessary impetus for

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Global Catastrophic Risks 2022: A Year of Colliding Consequences

The report provides an overview of several catastrophic risks that are potentially global in scope: weapons of mass destruction, pandemics, artificial intelligence, asteroids, climate change, super-volcanic eruptions, ecological collapse, population growth, and climate tipping points. For each risk, it explores the key factors that affect the risk levels and the extant governance frameworks that address

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