Geopolitics and International Security

Governing Environmental Risk in an Era of Geopolitical Instability

This article argues that environmental change is now an immediate driver of geopolitical instability and market disruption, not just a long-term risk. It highlights how climate change and nature loss interact with geopolitical rivalry, supply chain fragility, and financial risk, creating reinforcing feedback loops that are often overlooked due to siloed approaches to risk assessment

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Dynamics of Polycrisis 2.0

This commentary reviews fifteen continuing dynamics of the polycrisis and examines how they have changed over the past year. It argues that global instability is increasingly driven by the interaction of multiple reinforcing crises, including proliferating armed conflicts, escalating geopolitical rivalry, the breakdown of international cooperation, rising inequality, democratic backsliding, and intensifying climate disruption. The

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It is Now 85 Seconds to Midnight

This statement from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists sets the Doomsday Clock at 85 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been, signaling an intensifying risk of global catastrophe. It highlights the convergence of escalating threats, including nuclear conflict, climate change, biotechnology risks, and unregulated artificial intelligence, all compounded by rising nationalism, autocracy,

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Global Catastrophic Risks 2026

This report presents the Global Challenges Foundation’s assessment of the most pressing catastrophic risks facing humanity today. It identifies five key threats: catastrophic climate change, ecological collapse, weapons of mass destruction, the use of AI in military decision-making, and near-Earth asteroids. The report highlights how these risks are becoming increasingly interconnected, accelerating and reinforcing one

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Immigration, War, Economic Collapse: Will the Global Order Change in 2026?

This article presents Fair Observers’s 2026 geopolitical outlook using a Social, Political, Economic, Religious, and Military framework. The authors argue that overlapping global stresses, immigration pressures, democratic dysfunction, economic fragility, and strategic rivalry, are accelerating institutional erosion. The analysis outlines key global risk dynamics, including the rise of far-right movements in Europe, increasing state fragility,

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Global Risks Report 2026: Geopolitical and Economic Risks Rise in New Age of Competition

The Global Risks Report 2026 explores how a new competitive world order is reshaping global risks across domains. Over the next two years, geoeconomic confrontation is identified as the most severe risk, with economic and societal instability also rising sharply. Over a ten-year horizon, inequality emerges as the most interconnected long-term risk, while artificial intelligence shows the

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Systemic Risk And Escalation Dynamics In Global Politics (2026–2027)

This article examines the systemic risks and escalation dynamics shaping global politics in 2026–2027, highlighting how interconnected crises in Venezuela, the Middle East, Ukraine, and Taiwan are contributing to a globally coupled system prone to cascading instability. It argues that the erosion of international norms, intensifying domestic pressures, and overlapping regional conflicts are lowering the

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Ten Issues to Watch in 2026

This report identifies ten critical issues expected to shape the EU’s political agenda and global engagement in 2026. It highlights growing geopolitical tensions, the accelerating impact of artificial intelligence, mounting climate and energy pressures, and increasing strain on democratic institutions. Other key concerns include migration, economic fragmentation, demographic decline, and the sustainability of health systems.

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Top Risks 2026

The report presents Eurasia Group’s annual forecast of the political risks most likely to play out over the course of 2026. It outlines ten key global developments expected to shape the geopolitical landscape, including state-level conflicts, technological disruption, institutional challenges, and economic pressures. The analysis frames 2026 as a potential tipping point, marked by heightened

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Allianz Risk Barometer

The Allianz Risk Barometer presents its top corporate risks for 2026. The report identifies cyber incidents as the top global business risk, followed by artificial intelligence (AI). Business interruption and supply chain disruption, changes in legislation and regulation, natural catastrophes, and climate change complete the top six, while political risks and violence climbed to its

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