Geopolitics and International Security

Ten Issues to Watch in 2026

This report identifies ten critical issues expected to shape the EU’s political agenda and global engagement in 2026. It highlights growing geopolitical tensions, the accelerating impact of artificial intelligence, mounting climate and energy pressures, and increasing strain on democratic institutions. Other key concerns include migration, economic fragmentation, demographic decline, and the sustainability of health systems. […]

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Top Risks 2026

The report presents Eurasia Group’s annual forecast of the political risks most likely to play out over the course of 2026. It outlines ten key global developments expected to shape the geopolitical landscape, including state-level conflicts, technological disruption, institutional challenges, and economic pressures. The analysis frames 2026 as a potential tipping point, marked by heightened

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Allianz Risk Barometer

The Allianz Risk Barometer presents its top corporate risks for 2026. The report identifies cyber incidents as the top global business risk, followed by artificial intelligence (AI). Business interruption and supply chain disruption, changes in legislation and regulation, natural catastrophes, and climate change complete the top six, while political risks and violence climbed to its

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The World Order After 2025

In this article, Yuen Yuen Ang argues that 2025 marks not just the end of the postwar global order but the emergence of a new one. She examines the collapse of a system built on US-led geopolitical stability, industrial progress, and globalization, highlighting internal contradictions such as concentrated authority, widening inequality, environmental degradation, and political

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Global Risk Forecast 2026

The Crisis24 Global Risk Forecast 2026 provides a strategic outlook on the evolving risk landscape heading into 2026. It identifies a global environment marked by intensifying geopolitical competition, persistent economic volatility, increasing cyber vulnerabilities, and escalating climate disruptions. The report emphasizes the convergence of immediate shocks with deeper structural stressors, highlighting how interconnected and compounding

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Examining the Three Existential Threats of the 21st Century: Artificial Intelligence, Climate Change, and Nuclear Weapons

The authors critically examine three existential threats facing humanity in the 21st century: advanced artificial intelligence, escalating climate change, and nuclear weapons. Drawing on scientific consensus and growing institutional concern, they explore the structural features that make each threat existential and analyze their dangerous interactions. The authors propose a framework for future inquiry, policy, and

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2026 Emergency Watchlist

The Watchlist 2026 report by the International Rescue Committee (IRC) highlights the deepening intersection of conflict, climate change, and economic instability across 20 crisis-prone countries. It warns of a dangerous divergence: while humanitarian needs are surging—with over 239 million people requiring assistance, catastrophic food insecurity in six countries, and the highest number of active conflicts

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Mapping the Hope Attractor: A Conversation with Thomas- Homer Dixon

In this conversation, Thomas Homer-Dixon introduces the Cascade Institute’s Polycrisis Core Model (PCM), a novel framework designed to map and analyse interactions among 11 critical global systems, each with multiple potential future states. The model employs cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis to evaluate over four million internally consistent scenarios, ultimately identifying 11 distinct “attractor” states. These

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Tackling the Complex Links Between Climate Change, Conflict, and Health

The authors underscore the urgent need to address the interconnected threats of climate change, conflict, and health. They highlight how these threats not only cause direct harm, such as heat-related deaths and conflict-driven mortality, but also compound vulnerabilities by damaging health systems, disrupting essential services, and fueling cycles of instability. Fragile and conflict-affected states are

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