Ecosystems Archives - Page 2 of 3

Global Catastrophic Risks 2022: A Year of Colliding Consequences

The report provides an overview of several catastrophic risks that are potentially global in scope: weapons of mass destruction, pandemics, artificial intelligence, asteroids, climate change, super-volcanic eruptions, ecological collapse, population growth, and climate tipping points. For each risk, it explores the key factors that affect the risk levels and the extant governance frameworks that address […]

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Dynamics of Tipping Cascades on Complex Networks

This article examines network models to better predict tipping points, defined as “a critical threshold (tipping point) at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of the subsystem.” By using moisture measures in the Amazon rainforest as a model system, the authors determine that “clustering and spatial organization increase the vulnerability

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Anatomy and Resilience of the Global Production Ecosystem

The authors argue that the worldwide production and distribution of food, fuel, and fibre has created a “global production ecosystem” subject to immense simplification, intensification, and control by humans attempting to maximize efficiency. The resulting system is homogenous, highly connected, and has weak feedbacks – “features [that] converge to yield high and predictable supplies of

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Cascading Regime Shifts Within and Across Scales

Where regime shifts (also known as critical transitions) are generally studied within a single ecosystem, the authors explore cascading regimes shifts across multiple ecosystems. Drawing on the Regime Shifts Database of over thirty well-documented regime shifts, they identify three causal pathways by which a regime shift in one ecosystem relates causally to a regime shift

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Unifying Research on Socio-Ecological Resilience and Collapse

After reviewing different definitions of collapse across several fields, Graeme Cumming and Garry Peterson outline specific criteria with which to assess collapse and apply them to historical and ecological examples. They emphasize the need for standard, testable, definitions and a baseline measurement, or “identity,” of a system to better understand if it has collapsed. “It

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Staving Off the Coming Global Collapse

William E. Rees asserts that humanity is heading to a critical ecological situation that diminishes the prospect of continued civilized existence, and considers why, despite the magnitude of the threat, the world community is not acting sensibly. He further explains how social inequality and the current political agenda obstruct effective action.

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The Butterfly Defect: How Globalization Creates Systemic Risks, and What to Do about it

Ian Goldin and Mike Mariathasan argue that systemic risk is endemic to globalization that cannot be removed. “It is a process to be managed rather than a problem to be solved” (p. xiii). But rather than retreat from globalization and forfeit its considerable benefits, the authors argue that systemic risk requires global governance reforms to

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Critical Transitions in Nature and Society

From shallow lakes that flip from clear to turbid water to major climate shifts, big shifts in social norms to the collapse of societies and ecosystems, Marten Scheffer shows that many complex systems undergo “critical transitions” (or “regime shifts”) between multiple stable states (or “equilibria”). In these transitions, slow and often unseen change in a

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