Academic Journal Article

Towards a Theory of Coupled Sociopolitical Events-Planetary Boundaries, Crises, Policrisis and Earth System Syndromes

This paper introduces a novel modelling framework to evaluate how specific sociopolitical events influence the Earth System and their interaction with Planetary Boundaries. The authors present an interacting matrix model that links sociopolitical dynamics with biophysical thresholds, enabling the exploration of possible future trajectories, including scenarios that may trigger crises and polycrises. By modelling Planetary […]

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Understanding Polycrisis: Definitions, Applications, and Responses

This paper compares conceptualizations of the term “polycrisis,” raising questions about the key aspects of different definitions while stressing a convergence in critical features. It conceives a polycrisis as a state in which multiple, macroregional, ecologically embedded, and inexorably interconnected systems face high – and advancing – risk across socioeconomic, political, and other dimensions. After

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Global Food Security in a Turbulent World: Reviewing the Impacts of the Pandemic, the War and Climate Change

The authors explore how the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine war, and climate change have jointly disrupted global food security. Drawing on recent empirical evidence, the paper examines the mechanisms through which each shock has affected the four key dimensions of food security: availability, access, utilization, and stability. By highlighting the compounding effects of these overlapping

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The State of Global Catastrophic Risk Research: A Bibliometric Review

This paper presents a systematic bibliometric analysis of the expanding literature on global catastrophic risk (GCR) and existential risk (ER). Based on 3,437 documents, the authors identify ten major research clusters, including key drivers such as artificial intelligence, climate change, and pandemics. The metadata indicate that approximately 150 GCR/ER-related publications are produced annually. The analysis

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Just Systems or Justice in Systems? Exploring the Ethical Implications of Systemic Resilience in Local Climate Adaptation

The article examines the ethical implications of systemic resilience in local climate adaptation, noting that resilience is an inherently normative concept that requires reflection on a system’s function, why it should be made resilient, and who it serves. It argues that decisions about community resilience must be informed by justice considerations, including participatory, procedural, distributive,

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Cascading Failure, Financial Network and Systemic Risk

This paper addresses the challenge of accurately measuring systemic risk by introducing a novel indicator, Expected Shortfall Rank (ESRank), which accounts for cascading failures and network effects often overlooked in traditional models. Using LASSO to construct tail risk networks among financial institutions and ΔCoES to simulate contagion dynamics, the study develops a general cascading failure

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Decolonising Polycrisis: Southern Perspectives on Interlocking Crises

In this article, the authors reframe the concept of polycrisis through a decolonial lens, emphasizing the need to center global South experiences in understanding interlocking crises. Drawing on examples such as Pakistan’s climate-induced debt spiral and Puerto Rico’s post-disaster vulnerabilities, the authors argue that colonial legacies and global financial architectures continue to shape crisis dynamics.

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Cascading Hazards and Compound Disasters

This special issue examines how systemic risks unfold, interact, and escalate in diverse geographic and institutional contexts. It addresses the significance of adopting a broader systemic approach to understanding disaster risk, considering hazards, vulnerability, exposure, capacity, and cascading interactions. The contributions span a range of domains, from geomorphology and climate science to agriculture, infrastructure, and

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Polycrisis: Factors, Impacts, and Responses in the Housing Market

The authors examine the implications of polycrisis for the housing market. Using a qualitative desktop study and thematic analysis, they identify key contributing factors including economic inequality, climate change, political instability, and technological disruption. The study highlights how polycrisis affects both housing market regulators and participants, resulting in reduced property values, increased financial risks, and

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Beyond the Buzzword: Rethinking Polycrises in Public Policy and Administration Research

The author examines the use of the polycrisis concept in public policy and administration research, highlighting its potential for addressing complex challenges but noting a frequent lack of conceptual clarity and analytical depth. Polycrises are often treated as static and uniform, despite their dynamic and multifaceted nature. To strengthen its application, the author proposes clearer

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