Academic Journal Article Archives

The Predictive Power of Systemic Risk Indicators Under Extreme Scenarios

The authors examine the predictive power of systemic risk indicators for China’s listed financial institutions between 2008 and 2025. They analyse indicator performance from three angles: macro-level timeliness, market performance of financial institutions, and early warning of bank distress. The authors find that fluctuations in systemic risk indicators align closely with periods of financial stress, […]

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Infrastructure Links Amplify Impacts

The authors develop a modelling framework to assess how natural hazards, intensified by climate change, propagate cascading failures across interdependent critical infrastructures. The framework is applied to interdependent power and water networks in North Italy under historical wind-gust conditions and under climate projections following Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. The authors find that climate

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The Polycrisis and Emerging-Market Resilience: Climate Shocks, Financial Volatility, and Geopolitical Fragmentation as Simultaneous Stressors – Building Adaptive Macroeconomic Frameworks for Compounding Risks

This report examines how climate shocks, financial volatility, sovereign debt pressures, and geopolitical fragmentation interact to create compounding macroeconomic risks for emerging and developing economies. It argues that these interconnected stressors can produce non-linear effects, including capital flight, currency depreciation, food and energy inflation, shrinking fiscal space, and sovereign debt distress, making conventional approaches designed

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Reframing Sustainability in an Age of Polycrisis: Economic Models, Indicators, and a New Integrated Baseline for EU Governance

The author examines how sustainability should be reframed in the context of polycrisis. Focusing on the European Union, the article compares green growth, ecological economics, and post-growth approaches and assesses four major sustainability indicator families: the Sustainable Development Goals Index, Human Development Index, Ecological Footprint, and welfare-adjusted measures such as the Genuine Progress Indicator and

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No Place to Hide? Regional Resilience and Vulnerability to Global Catastrophic Risk

The authors examine which locations are most resilient to global catastrophic risks, including nuclear war, near-Earth objects, major volcanic eruptions, large-scale cyberattacks, electromagnetic pulses, geomagnetic storms, and pandemics. They find that no location is resilient across all scenarios, although Australia demonstrates resilience across the widest range of risks considered. Common resilience factors include geographic isolation,

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Opportunities for Pathways Approaches for Adapting to Complex Climate Change Risks

The authors examine how adaptation pathways can be extended to address complex climate change risks arising from interactions among compounding hazards, cascading impacts, dynamic vulnerabilities, infrastructure interdependencies, and governance failures. They argue that conventional adaptation approaches are often poorly suited to non-linear, deeply uncertain, and potentially irreversible risk conditions, and identify three areas where pathways

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Six Major Risks in Modern Society: Research Progress and Future Directions

The authors review six major systemic risks facing modern societies: geopolitical risks, global meteorological disaster risks, regional environmental risks, global supply chain risks, systemic financial risks, and technology-mediated societal and institutional risks. They show how these risks increasingly interact across political, economic, environmental, technological, and social systems, allowing disruptions in one domain to generate cascading

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Global Catastrophic Risk from Lower Magnitude Volcanic Eruptions

The authors argue that moderate volcanic eruptions might have cascading, catastrophic effects. They identify seven global “pinch points” where volcanic hazards intersect with concentrated systems such as shipping routes, air transportation, submarine communication cables, trade networks, and key industries, creating pathways for local disruptions to cascade through the global economy. The authors argue that globalisation

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