Academic Journal Article Archives

Polycrisis and Global Production Networks: A Framework for Understanding Industry Dynamics in Times of Accumulated Uncertainty

The authors develop a framework for understanding how overlapping crises reshape global production networks and accumulate uncertainty for suppliers and workers. Using Bangladesh’s apparel industry as a case study, they analyse how historical trade shifts, the Covid-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, and domestic political-economic crises influence European lead firms’ sourcing decisions. The findings show that lead

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Mapping Technological Civilization in State Space: From Planetary Vital Signs to Multidimensional Risk Configurations

The author examines how global systemic risks can be understood as properties of multidimensional configurations rather than through conventional lists and rankings. The paper proposes a state-space framework in which current problems correspond to occupied regions, emerging threats to regions the system may move towards, and systemic risks to regions where perturbations are amplified rather

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From Frameworks to Implementation: Addressing Systemic Risk in the Real World

The authors examine how to bridge the gap between growing scientific understanding of systemic risks and the practical implementation of effective responses. They argue that although research has advanced in identifying how risks interact, compound, and cascade within and across systems, approaches to assessing and responding to these dynamics remain insufficiently applied. Drawing on the

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The Predictive Power of Systemic Risk Indicators Under Extreme Scenarios

The authors examine the predictive power of systemic risk indicators for China’s listed financial institutions between 2008 and 2025. They analyse indicator performance from three angles: macro-level timeliness, market performance of financial institutions, and early warning of bank distress. The authors find that fluctuations in systemic risk indicators align closely with periods of financial stress,

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Infrastructure Links Amplify Impacts

The authors develop a modelling framework to assess how natural hazards, intensified by climate change, propagate cascading failures across interdependent critical infrastructures. The framework is applied to interdependent power and water networks in North Italy under historical wind-gust conditions and under climate projections following Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5. The authors find that climate

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The Polycrisis and Emerging-Market Resilience: Climate Shocks, Financial Volatility, and Geopolitical Fragmentation as Simultaneous Stressors – Building Adaptive Macroeconomic Frameworks for Compounding Risks

This report examines how climate shocks, financial volatility, sovereign debt pressures, and geopolitical fragmentation interact to create compounding macroeconomic risks for emerging and developing economies. It argues that these interconnected stressors can produce non-linear effects, including capital flight, currency depreciation, food and energy inflation, shrinking fiscal space, and sovereign debt distress, making conventional approaches designed

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Reframing Sustainability in an Age of Polycrisis: Economic Models, Indicators, and a New Integrated Baseline for EU Governance

The author examines how sustainability should be reframed in the context of polycrisis. Focusing on the European Union, the article compares green growth, ecological economics, and post-growth approaches and assesses four major sustainability indicator families: the Sustainable Development Goals Index, Human Development Index, Ecological Footprint, and welfare-adjusted measures such as the Genuine Progress Indicator and

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No Place to Hide? Regional Resilience and Vulnerability to Global Catastrophic Risk

The authors examine which locations are most resilient to global catastrophic risks, including nuclear war, near-Earth objects, major volcanic eruptions, large-scale cyberattacks, electromagnetic pulses, geomagnetic storms, and pandemics. They find that no location is resilient across all scenarios, although Australia demonstrates resilience across the widest range of risks considered. Common resilience factors include geographic isolation,

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Opportunities for Pathways Approaches for Adapting to Complex Climate Change Risks

The authors examine how adaptation pathways can be extended to address complex climate change risks arising from interactions among compounding hazards, cascading impacts, dynamic vulnerabilities, infrastructure interdependencies, and governance failures. They argue that conventional adaptation approaches are often poorly suited to non-linear, deeply uncertain, and potentially irreversible risk conditions, and identify three areas where pathways

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