Academic Journal Article

Dimensional characterization and Pathway Modeling for Catastrophic AI Risks

This paper examines catastrophic AI risks using a framework that combines seven risk dimensions: intent, competency, entity, polarity, linearity, reach, and order, along with risk pathway modelling to link hazards to harms. It analyzes six major risk types: Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN); cyber offence; sudden and gradual loss of control; environmental; and geopolitical. […]

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Echoes of Uncertainty: Reimagining Complexity of Global Risks in the Shadow of the Russian–Ukrainian Conflict

The authors explore risk perceptions in Ukraine and Poland in the context of the ongoing Russian–Ukrainian conflict. Drawing on cross-sectional survey data, the research reveals significant differences in how respondents from both countries perceive a range of global threats. By comparing perceptions of multiple potential risks that individuals may face in the foreseeable future, the

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International Cooperation in Times of Polycrisis: Patchworks as Pathways in Earth System Governance

This paper re-examines the principles and precepts of ‘old’ multilateralism in the context of the global polycrisis. It offers an analytical framework for ‘new’ multilateralism in Earth system governance, emphasizing the limitations of Global North–Global South binaries and proposing “patchworks” as flexible, cross-scale pathways for cooperation across policy silos.

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Coping with Persistent Disruptive Stressors and Polycrisis: Community-Based Policy Making and Local Empowerment

The authors propose a conceptual framework for governing polycrisis and systemic risks through a bottom-up, community-based approach. They introduce the “risk governance triangle”, linking persistent disruptive stressors, risk-absorbing systems, and contextual modifiers, and structure these elements using the Pagoda model, which identifies five interrelated layers: natural conditions, institutional arrangements, technical and social infrastructure, the built

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Tipping Cascades Between Conflict and Cooperation in Climate Change

The authors examine the complex interplay between climate change and security, offering a systems-based modelling approach to understanding transitions between conflict and cooperation. Drawing on empirical research and the case study of Lake Chad, the article explores how climate risks act as conflict multipliers through tipping points, cascading effects, and multi-agent interactions. Using bi-stable tipping

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Towards a Theory of Coupled Sociopolitical Events-Planetary Boundaries, Crises, Policrisis and Earth System Syndromes

This paper introduces a novel modelling framework to evaluate how specific sociopolitical events influence the Earth System and their interaction with Planetary Boundaries. The authors present an interacting matrix model that links sociopolitical dynamics with biophysical thresholds, enabling the exploration of possible future trajectories, including scenarios that may trigger crises and polycrises. By modelling Planetary

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Understanding Polycrisis: Definitions, Applications, and Responses

This paper compares conceptualizations of the term “polycrisis,” raising questions about the key aspects of different definitions while stressing a convergence in critical features. It conceives a polycrisis as a state in which multiple, macroregional, ecologically embedded, and inexorably interconnected systems face high – and advancing – risk across socioeconomic, political, and other dimensions. After

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Global Food Security in a Turbulent World: Reviewing the Impacts of the Pandemic, the War and Climate Change

The authors explore how the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine war, and climate change have jointly disrupted global food security. Drawing on recent empirical evidence, the paper examines the mechanisms through which each shock has affected the four key dimensions of food security: availability, access, utilization, and stability. By highlighting the compounding effects of these overlapping

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The State of Global Catastrophic Risk Research: A Bibliometric Review

This paper presents a systematic bibliometric analysis of the expanding literature on global catastrophic risk (GCR) and existential risk (ER). Based on 3,437 documents, the authors identify ten major research clusters, including key drivers such as artificial intelligence, climate change, and pandemics. The metadata indicate that approximately 150 GCR/ER-related publications are produced annually. The analysis

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