Academic Journal Article

Public Attitudes to Responding to Global Catastrophic Risks: A New Zealand Case Study

This paper examines public opinion on the New Zealand government’s potential role in planning for global catastrophic risks. Based on a representative survey, 66% of respondents supported the government developing specific plans to address catastrophic risks, and 60% supported establishing a dedicated commission or agency. Support was positively associated with age, education, income, and trust […]

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Characterizing the Global Polycrisis: A Systematic Review of Recent Literature

The authors examine the concept of polycrisis, a term that has gained prominence for describing the interconnected nature of global challenges. Through a systematic review of 2,299 publications, the results indicate a common understanding of the polycrisis as multiple co-occurring, causally entangled crises with synergistic and cascading effects on multiple systems degrading humanity’s prospects. While

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It’s Time to Consider Global Catastrophic Food Failures

The authors explore how food systems face interconnected, systemic risks that could culminate in widespread disruptions, potentially triggering extreme global famine, alongside other neglected extreme risks. They introduce the term Global Catastrophic Food Failure (GCFF) as a type of global catastrophic risk, intended to unify diverse strands of research focused on ensuring global food availability

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Positive Externalities in the Polycrisis: Effectively Addressing Disaster and Climate Risks for Generating Multiple Resilience Dividends

This paper argues that, in the context of the Polycrisis, further investment is urgently needed to address the underlying drivers of disaster and climate-related risks. The authors examine the state of arts of the Triple Dividend of Resilience (TDR) framework, a concept that suggests resilience investments yield not only risk reduction benefits from intervention investments,

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Wicked Crises and the (In)capacity to Act

Renate E. Meyer examines the growing complexity of today’s wicked crises, which are interconnected, multi-scalar disruptions such as climate change, forced displacement, and cyber insecurity. These crises defy traditional models and demand collective action. Meyer identifies two interrelated forces that undermine this capacity: organizational fragmentation, which complicates governance and coordination; and societal fragmentation, marked by

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A Systemic Risk Assessment Methodological Framework for the Global Polycrisis

The paper examines two historical global food–energy crises, highlighting the limitations of traditional risk management approaches in addressing today’s complex and interconnected global risks. The authors propose a methodological framework for assessing systemic risks in a global polycrisis context, which includes exploring system architectures, considering transformational responses away from risks, and applying cross-cutting practices. They

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The Impact of Polycrisis on Healthcare Systems—Analyzing Challenges and the Role of Social Epidemiology

This article examines how overlapping global crises are converging to form a polycrisis that places unprecedented strain on healthcare systems worldwide. Applying social epidemiology to the analysis of polycrisis, the authors highlight how these interconnected threats amplify one another, exposing systemic vulnerabilities and deepening health inequities. Drawing on data from missed hospitalizations, conflict zones such

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Dimensional characterization and Pathway Modeling for Catastrophic AI Risks

This paper examines catastrophic AI risks using a framework that combines seven risk dimensions: intent, competency, entity, polarity, linearity, reach, and order, along with risk pathway modelling to link hazards to harms. It analyzes six major risk types: Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN); cyber offence; sudden and gradual loss of control; environmental; and geopolitical.

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Echoes of Uncertainty: Reimagining Complexity of Global Risks in the Shadow of the Russian–Ukrainian Conflict

The authors explore risk perceptions in Ukraine and Poland in the context of the ongoing Russian–Ukrainian conflict. Drawing on cross-sectional survey data, the research reveals significant differences in how respondents from both countries perceive a range of global threats. By comparing perceptions of multiple potential risks that individuals may face in the foreseeable future, the

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