The authors explore how to approach stress testing and stress scenario design in a world of polycrises and compound risks. The authors advocate for adopting “polyscenario” approaches that use multiple, interdisciplinary scenarios to capture the complexity and unpredictability of global risks.
Stress Testing in a World of Compound Risks and Polycrises Read More »
Kanishka Jayasuriya argues that polycrisis is a helpful descriptive term for the novel, intersecting crises of the 21st century, but it should be understood as a political crisis arising from the contradiction between capital accumulation and the social reproduction (the conditions of life) on which capitalism depends. Established political frameworks are unable to manage the
Polycrisis or Crises of Capitalist Social Reproduction Read More »
The authors explore how AI, while offering promising benefits in healthcare, also poses significant risks to human health and society. They examine three major threats from misused narrow AI: increased control and manipulation of individuals through surveillance and targeted information campaigns, the development and deployment of lethal autonomous weapons, and the displacement of human labor.
Threats by Artificial Intelligence to Human Health and Human Existence Read More »
David Henig and Daniel M. Knight argue that anthropology has much to offer in the conceptualization and study of polycrisis, drawing on a disciplinary “toolkit that includes historicity, temporality, scalarity and intersectionality, which adds much needed texture to the polycrisis theory” (p. 4). The authors consider the nature of crisis as an abrupt disruption versus
Polycrisis: Prompts for an Emerging Worldview Read More »
Societies throughout history have faced polycrises, but the outcomes range widely from collapse to positive adaptation. The authors have developed a Crisis Database of 150 past societal crises and find that three pressures make societies especially vulnerable to environmental stresses (and consequent polycrises) by impeding collective action: popular immiseration, elite overproduction and conflict, and state
This article examines the nature, causes, mechanisms, and impact of global systemic crises and their implications for global policymaking and governance.
The authors argue that the most effective way to build general resilience in an increasingly volatile and uncertain world is to foster “response diversity… a system’s variety of responses to disruptions of all kinds.” That entails maintaining a variety of ways to carry out key system process (ideally at different spatial and temporal scales) that
Response Diversity as a Sustainability Strategy Read More »
The research examines the risk of climate tipping under various temperature overshoot scenarios using a simplified network model. It shows that temporary overshoots can increase the tipping risks up to 72% compared with non-overshoot scenarios. It suggests that to avoid high-end climate risks, low-temperature overshoots and stabilization of long-term temperatures at or below current levels
Global Warming Overshoots Increase Risks of Climate Tipping Cascades in a Network Model Read More »
While increased climate warming may motivate ambitious actions that remediate the climate crisis, Millward-Hopkins proposes that it may have the opposite effect. He argues that the indirect impacts of warming, such as widening socioeconomic inequalities, increased migration, and heightened risk of conflict, interact with key drivers of authoritarian populism in ways that may foster resistance
Why the impacts of climate change may make us less likely to reduce emissions Read More »
Stephen M. Walt considers a number of global shocks that have all happened in close temporal proximity to one another and are “overwhelming our collective ability to respond”: the breakup of the Soviet empire, China’s rise, 9/11 and the global war on terror, the 2008 financial meltdown, the Arab Spring, the global refugee crisis, the
How Many Shocks Can the World Take? Read More »
