This article examines network models to better predict tipping points, defined as “a critical threshold (tipping point) at which a tiny perturbation can qualitatively alter the state or development of the subsystem.” By using moisture measures in the Amazon rainforest as a model system, the authors determine that “clustering and spatial organization increase the vulnerability […]
Dynamics of Tipping Cascades on Complex Networks Read More »
This longitudinal case study applies collapse theory to the Piura Basin of Peru, a region subject to extreme El Niño weather events, that has previously seen societal collapse in the ancient Moche civilization. By examining factors from the Robustness Framework such as centralized governance, system interconnectedness, and central elites, the researchers examined the interactions of
Integrating Collapse Theories to Understand Socio-Ecological Systems Resilience Read More »
The authors argue that the worldwide production and distribution of food, fuel, and fibre has created a “global production ecosystem” subject to immense simplification, intensification, and control by humans attempting to maximize efficiency. The resulting system is homogenous, highly connected, and has weak feedbacks – “features [that] converge to yield high and predictable supplies of
Anatomy and Resilience of the Global Production Ecosystem Read More »
The authors argue that the world’s dependence on networks and critical infrastructure renders it increasingly vulnerable to “cascading disasters” in which “it is common for the secondary effects to be new sources of impact, which may be more devastating than the original trigger.” To help analyze the vulnerability pathways through which disaster cascades propagate, they
What are Cascading Disasters? Read More »
This article introduces a special issue of the Journal of European Public Policy on Europe’s polycrisis, setting out the mechanisms of its “politics trap” and the strategies that have been utilized to try to deal with its constraints. It argues that “this ‘polycrisis’ is fracturing the European political system across multiple, simultaneous rifts, thereby creating a ‘polycleavage’.”
Melanie Hart, Jordan Link, and Ngor Luong of the Center for American Progress translate and discuss Chinese Central Political and Legal Affairs Commission Secretary-General Chen Yixin’s effort to explain President Xi Jinping’s “ten fundamental insights” on “preventing and resolving major risks”. Yixin considers black swan events and risk interactions, noting that “All categories of risk
Taking Strategic Initiative to Prevent and Defuse Major Risks Read More »
Where regime shifts (also known as critical transitions) are generally studied within a single ecosystem, the authors explore cascading regimes shifts across multiple ecosystems. Drawing on the Regime Shifts Database of over thirty well-documented regime shifts, they identify three causal pathways by which a regime shift in one ecosystem relates causally to a regime shift
Cascading Regime Shifts Within and Across Scales Read More »
Susan Cutter traces the etymology of the multiple, overlapping terms used to describe “types of situations where there is a single triggering hazardous event resulting in large-scale impacts to lives and livelihoods, which in turn generate secondary or tertiary ‘events’” (p. 17). She notes that the terms “compounding effects” and “cascading hazards” refer to cases
Compound, Cascading, or Complex Disasters: What’s in a Name? Read More »
The paper proposes that reinforcing feedbacks could push the earth system toward a planetary threshold past which lies an irreversible “Hothouse Earth” scenario that catastrophically disrupts ecosystems, societies, and economies. The authors suggest that a deep transformation based on a fundamental reorientation of human values and operating systems is necessary, as well as resilience-building strategies
Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene Read More »
The authors introduce a classification framework for severe global catastrophic risk scenarios focusing on three dimensions: the critical systems affected, global spread mechanisms, and prevention and mitigation failures.
Classifying Global Catastrophic Risks Read More »
