This 18th edition of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report is based on a risk perceptions survey of 1200 experts on the likelihood, severity, and interconnections between 37 global risks. It finds that the biggest risk in the next two years is the cost of living crisis, and the biggest risk in the next […]
Global Risks Report 2023 Read More »
The research examines the risk of climate tipping under various temperature overshoot scenarios using a simplified network model. It shows that temporary overshoots can increase the tipping risks up to 72% compared with non-overshoot scenarios. It suggests that to avoid high-end climate risks, low-temperature overshoots and stabilization of long-term temperatures at or below current levels
Global Warming Overshoots Increase Risks of Climate Tipping Cascades in a Network Model Read More »
This discussion paper proposes that “A global polycrisis occurs when crises in multiple systems become causally entangled in ways that significantly reduce humanity’s prospects. These interacting crises produce harms greater than the sum of those the crises would produce in isolation, were their host systems not so deeply intertwined” (p. 2). The authors then elaborate
What is a Global Polycrisis? And how is it Different from a Systemic Risk? Read More »
This Foresight Brief argues that conventional risk management frameworks cannot grapple with the growing number of systemic and existential risks generated by decades of globalization. Instead, these risks require more long-term thinking – “intentional consideration of what might happen in the future, the choices for influencing it and the consequences of those choices” (p. 10).
This briefing note presents an integrated perspective on climate, environmental, and disaster risk science and practice concerning systemic risk. It provides an overview of the evolving concepts of systemic risk over time and identifies commonalities across terminologies and perspectives used in different contexts.
Briefing note on systemic risk Read More »
The authors argue that the worldwide production and distribution of food, fuel, and fibre has created a “global production ecosystem” subject to immense simplification, intensification, and control by humans attempting to maximize efficiency. The resulting system is homogenous, highly connected, and has weak feedbacks – “features [that] converge to yield high and predictable supplies of
Anatomy and Resilience of the Global Production Ecosystem Read More »
The authors clarify the systemic risk concept using the Global Financial Crisis as an example. They explain how global systems involve micro and macro-dynamics interacting with each other and their environment, leading to stable periods and multiple possible future scenarios. Some of these scenarios may pose catastrophic risks, so that agents must confront systemic risk.
Things are Different Today: The Challenge of Global Systemic Risks Read More »
Ortwin Renn proposes that societies are good at conventional risk management, which focusses on discrete events like a fire or car accident, but increasingly challenged by systemic risks where a failure in one part of a system quickly spreads to disable the whole system and has ripple effects on others. “It is the totality of
Systemic Risks: The New Kid on the Block Read More »
The authors argue that the world constitutes a tightly coupled, global complex system that endogenously generates systemic risks and vulnerabilities as it grows more complex. After discussing complexity, risk, and networks as key elements of their framework, they provide case studies of global systemic risk in trade, finance, infrastructure, climate change, and public health. The
The Emergence of Global Systemic Risk Read More »
Dirk Helbing demonstrates that “Systemic failures and extreme events are consequences of the highly interconnected systems and networked risks humans have created. When networks are interdependent this makes them even more vulnerable to abrupt failures.” He surveys key concepts in complexity and network science, draws upon examples of financial meltdowns and crowd disasters, and ultimately
Globally Networked Risks and How to Respond Read More »
