Global Warming Overshoots Increase Risks of Climate Tipping Cascades in a Network Model

Global Warming

The research examines the risk of climate tipping under various temperature overshoot scenarios using a simplified network model. It shows that temporary overshoots can increase the tipping risks up to 72% compared with non-overshoot scenarios. It suggests that to avoid high-end climate risks, low-temperature overshoots and stabilization of long-term temperatures at or below current levels of global warming are necessary.


Nico Wunderling, Ricarda Winkelmann, Johan Rockström, Sina Loriani, David I. Armstrong McKay, Paul D. L. Ritchie, Boris Sakschewski, and Jonathan F. Donges

Publication Date

22 December 2022


Nature Climate Change (vol. 13)


Global Warming

Resource Type

Academic Journal Article

Systems Addressed


Resource Theme

Systemic Risk
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