Catastrophic and Existential Risk

Planetary Peace for Human Security: Responses to Existential Risks in the Anthropocene

In this report, the Club of Rome argues that the current peace architecture, largely shaped by a few dominant powers in the post–World War II era, is no longer fit for purpose. A post-hegemonic, pluriversal future is needed—one that embraces diverse worldviews, rebalances global power structures, and cultivates harmony between humanity and nature. The Club

Planetary Peace for Human Security: Responses to Existential Risks in the Anthropocene Read More »

A Systemic Risk Assessment Methodological Framework for the Global Polycrisis

The paper examines two historical global food–energy crises, highlighting the limitations of traditional risk management approaches in addressing today’s complex and interconnected global risks. The authors propose a methodological framework for assessing systemic risks in a global polycrisis context, which includes exploring system architectures, considering transformational responses away from risks, and applying cross-cutting practices. They

A Systemic Risk Assessment Methodological Framework for the Global Polycrisis Read More »

The State of Global Catastrophic Risk Research: A Bibliometric Review

This paper presents a systematic bibliometric analysis of the expanding literature on global catastrophic risk (GCR) and existential risk (ER). Based on 3,437 documents, the authors identify ten major research clusters, including key drivers such as artificial intelligence, climate change, and pandemics. The metadata indicate that approximately 150 GCR/ER-related publications are produced annually. The analysis

The State of Global Catastrophic Risk Research: A Bibliometric Review Read More »

Collapse: What It Is — And What To Do

In this episode, Sarah Wilson delves into the concept of societal collapse, exploring its roots and possible responses. She weaves together Western and Indigenous perspectives, discussing theories such as Moloch theory, the influence of the Church, and critiques of technological elitism. The conversation emphasizes viewing crises as opportunities for transformation, advocating for the spread of

Collapse: What It Is — And What To Do Read More »

The Global Catastrophic Risk Index: Navigating Risk in an Uncertain Future

This second issue of the Global Governance Forum’s Global Catastrophic Risk Index (GCRI) examines the complexity of global risk and presents a clear picture of vulnerabilities across nations. The Index evaluates 163 countries using 109 indicators sourced from institutions such as the World Bank, IMF, and United Nations. It identifies the most at-risk countries as

The Global Catastrophic Risk Index: Navigating Risk in an Uncertain Future Read More »

Planet in Polycrisis

In this episode, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Executive Director of the Cascade Institute, and Manjana Milkoreit, postdoctoral researcher at the University of Oslo, explore the growing risks of global polycrisis. Through the lens of complexity science, Homer-Dixon explains how tightly coupled human and Earth systems are increasingly vulnerable to self-amplifying cascades—interlinked crises driven by energy use, environmental

Planet in Polycrisis Read More »

Cascading socio-economic and financial impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war differ across sectors and regions

The authors examine how financial markets amplify the cascading socio-economic impacts of global food and energy trade disruptions. Applying their methodology to the Russia-Ukraine war, they reveal regionally diverse effects, including rising energy prices, market volatility, and worsening food affordability. Their findings underscore the need to address cascading risks to strengthen economic and food system

Cascading socio-economic and financial impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war differ across sectors and regions Read More »

Extinction of the human species: What could cause it and how likely is it to occur?

The author explores the growing body of scientific and scholarly work on human extinction and existential risks, focusing on the question: “What could kill everyone, and how likely is it to happen?” This review provides an overview of plausible causes of human extinction identified in current academic literature, includes expert judgments on their likelihood, and

Extinction of the human species: What could cause it and how likely is it to occur? Read More »

Systemic Risk and the Polycrisis

The author explores the concepts of systemic risk, polycrisis, and catastrophic risk, explaining how interconnected failures can cascade across diverse systems, threatening global stability. He emphasizes how systemic risk and polycrisis expose both the vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities of our global systems. The article illustrates that while a single failure can trigger widespread collapse, history

Systemic Risk and the Polycrisis Read More »

Managing and Mitigating Future Public Health Risks: Planetary Boundaries, Global Catastrophic Risk, and Inclusive Wealth

The authors argue for a more integrated framework to understand existential risks by bridging two dominant paradigms: Planetary Boundaries and Global Catastrophic Risks. Using the COVID-19 pandemic as a case study, the authors analyze how pandemics reveal the interconnectedness of public health, environmental degradation, and global systems. They critique the fragmentation between the Planetary Boundaries

Managing and Mitigating Future Public Health Risks: Planetary Boundaries, Global Catastrophic Risk, and Inclusive Wealth Read More »

Scroll to Top