Jesse Damiani analyzes the Los Angeles fires, emphasizing their devastating impact on the city’s infrastructure and communities. He argues that these types of unprecedented weather events are symptoms of a broader “ecological overshoot,” which he identifies as the primary driver of a state of collapse. Damiani also explores strategies for resilience and adaptation to navigate […]
Andrew Busch examines the top global disaster risks for 2025, highlighting their interconnected nature, the compounding effects they may have, and potential strategies for effective risk management.
Top 10 2025 Global Disaster Risks Read More »
This paper reviews the findings of a pilot online mapping exercise of emerging risks conducted by the OECD High-Level Risk Forum. Nearly half of the risks shortlisted during the first stage were related to socio-environmental issues, including extreme temperatures and heatwaves, drinking water scarcity, the spread of vector-borne diseases to new areas, climate change-induced mass
Mapping Emerging Critical Risks Read More »
The report presents an annual forecast of the political risks that are most likely to play out over the course of 2024.
This report highlights lessons from new integrated local solutions in the Middle East and North Africa to manage risks and build resilience. It advocates for a new systems orientation to development paradigms and practice to achieve goals of transformational change.
Accelerating the Green Transition: Socioecological Systems and the Future of Development Read More »
This paper outlines key theoretical, methodological and organisational steps for understanding and mitigating cascading crises. It highlights new areas for integrated and collaborative research that involves cascading risk.
Understanding and Mitigating Cascading Crises in the Global Interconnected System Read More »
This study examines the increasing frequency, intensity, and interconnectedness of global hazards, both natural and human-made, over the past century.
The authors analyze underlying drivers of the Permacrisis, explaining how current trends could exacerbate the situation. They propose strategies to transform vicious cycles into virtuous ones.
Permacrisis: A Plan to Fix a Fractured World Read More »
This report summarizes what is known about the risks associated with six threats and hazards: artificial intelligence, asteroid and comet impacts, sudden and severe changes to Earth’s climate, nuclear war, severe pandemics, and supervolcanoes.
Global Catastrophic Risk Assessment Read More »
This study proposes a framework to analyze the dynamics and risk channels between the climate crisis, financial stability, the geopolitical energy crisis, and the energy transitions. The framework is presented in a step-by-step guide and applied in a study case in Germany.
