Catastrophic and Existential Risk

Extinction of the human species: What could cause it and how likely is it to occur?

The author explores the growing body of scientific and scholarly work on human extinction and existential risks, focusing on the question: “What could kill everyone, and how likely is it to happen?” This review provides an overview of plausible causes of human extinction identified in current academic literature, includes expert judgments on their likelihood, and […]

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Systemic Risk and the Polycrisis

The author explores the concepts of systemic risk, polycrisis, and catastrophic risk, explaining how interconnected failures can cascade across diverse systems, threatening global stability. He emphasizes how systemic risk and polycrisis expose both the vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities of our global systems. The article illustrates that while a single failure can trigger widespread collapse, history

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Managing and Mitigating Future Public Health Risks: Planetary Boundaries, Global Catastrophic Risk, and Inclusive Wealth

The authors argue for a more integrated framework to understand existential risks by bridging two dominant paradigms: Planetary Boundaries and Global Catastrophic Risks. Using the COVID-19 pandemic as a case study, the authors analyze how pandemics reveal the interconnectedness of public health, environmental degradation, and global systems. They critique the fragmentation between the Planetary Boundaries

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The Global Risks Report 2025

The Global Risks Report 2025 presents insights from the Global Risks Perception Survey 2024-2025, which gathered input from over 900 experts worldwide. The report analyzes global risks across three timeframes—immediate (2025), short-to medium-term (2027), and long-term (2035)—to help decision-makers navigate current and future challenges.

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The Los Angeles Fires, Polycrisis, & How to Live in Collapse | Urgent Futures Rapid Response #2

Jesse Damiani analyzes the Los Angeles fires, emphasizing their devastating impact on the city’s infrastructure and communities. He argues that these types of unprecedented weather events are symptoms of a broader “ecological overshoot,” which he identifies as the primary driver of a state of collapse. Damiani also explores strategies for resilience and adaptation to navigate

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Mapping Emerging Critical Risks

This paper reviews the findings of a pilot online mapping exercise of emerging risks conducted by the OECD High-Level Risk Forum. Nearly half of the risks shortlisted during the first stage were related to socio-environmental issues, including extreme temperatures and heatwaves, drinking water scarcity, the spread of vector-borne diseases to new areas, climate change-induced mass

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