Subjective-Probability Forecasts of Existential Risk: Initial Results from a Hybrid Persuasion-Forecasting Tournament
Ezra Karger, Josh Rosenberg, Zachary Jacobs, Molly Hickman and Phillip E. Tetlock.
This article presents a multi-stage forecasting tournament designed to evaluate how experts and generalist superforecasters assess short- and long-term existential risks to humanity, with a focus on artificial intelligence. The…










