The Swiss Re Institute, the research arm of Swiss Re Reinsurance, harnesses their risk knowledge in re/insurance to produce data driven research with partner organizations, shared via publications such as SONAR. SONAR is an annual publication that focuses on outlining emerging risks based on early signals gathered throughout the year. The 2024 SONAR report features […]
SONAR 2024: New Emerging Risk Insights Read More »
This paper presents exploratory findings concerning the susceptibility of young adults to the impact of stress and increased risk on experiencing poorer mental health when confronted by the ongoing polycrisis.
Eric Helleiner defines polycrisis as “a cluster of distinct crises that interact in ways that they and/or their effects tend to reinforce each other” and argues that economic globalization is experiencing a polycrisis made up of five constituent crises: the deepening trade war between the United States and China; the move towards national self-sufficiency in
Economic Globalization’s Polycrisis Read More »
The authors examine domestic policymaking processes amidst polycrisis by tracing the Canadian government’s development of its Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) during the Covid-19 pandemic. They argue that the process embodied three key best practices for national-level policy design in a crisis—policy integration, learning, and agility—and show how these elements evade capture by the polycrisis
The authors argue that a trigger event can’t start a crisis by itself; some underlying stress or stresses must also be operating. They contend that leaders should pay far more attention to these stresses, because they’re ultimately far more important. The original title of the article was “Let’s Avoid ‘Trigger Fixation.” The Globe and Mail
Let’s Avoid ‘Trigger Fixation’ Read More »
Tim Palmer discusses the challenges of predicting events in nonlinear systems that, by nature, experience intermittent instabilities, as in the famous “butterfly effect”. Today, continued emissions are increasing the instabilities and uncertainties of climate change, while the economy and global health exhibit similar non-linearities. To deal with such uncertainties, he advocates ensemble prediction systems that
Why the World Feels so Unstable Right Now Read More »
This 18th edition of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report is based on a risk perceptions survey of 1200 experts on the likelihood, severity, and interconnections between 37 global risks. It finds that the biggest risk in the next two years is the cost of living crisis, and the biggest risk in the next
Global Risks Report 2023 Read More »
The report highlights the distinctive harms for children and future generations of eight global trends that are part of the polycrisis: continued impacts of the pandemic, inflation, food insecurity, energy shortages, underinvestment in children, threats to democratic rights, international factionalism, and internet inequality.
Prospects for Children in the Polycrisis: A 2023 Global Outlook Read More »
Strong explores the impacts of polycrisis on the way people think, feel, and behave, highlighting several psychological responses to polycrisis: existential fear, the search for safety and protection, connection to place, the struggle to regain a sense of control, and the more fluid forms of cognition (e.g., the turn to conspiracy theories) by which people
Understanding human psychology during the polycrisis Read More »
The author defines megathreats as “severe problems that could cause vast damage and misery and cannot be solved quickly or easily” (p. 4). “We are facing megathreats unlike anything we have faced before… [and] they overlap and reinforce one another” (p. 5). Roubini explores ten megathreats: debt accumulation and debt traps; easy money and financial crises;
Megathreats: Ten Dangerous Trends that Imperil Our Future and How to Survive Them Read More »
