Geopolitics and International Security

Global Systemic Stresses: Understanding the Drivers of Polycrisis

This report introduces the Cascade Institute’s Stress-Trigger-Crisis model, a systemic framework that distinguishes between slow-moving stresses that erode the resilience of global systems and fast-moving trigger events that precipitate crises. It identifies 14 global systemic stresses that affect nine vital systems: climate, ecology, food, energy, economy, infrastructure, health, social order and governance, and world order. […]

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The Polycrisis Part I: War

In this mini-series, journalist Anthony Bartaway explores the concept of the current polycrisis. He examines its potential causes, including the collapse of the international community, the spread of disinformation, and escalating environmental issues. In the first episode, Bartaway focuses on the rise in the number of wars worldwide, using this trend to illustrate how overlapping

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Polycrisis — is this the sequel?

In this article, Adam Tooze revisits the concept of “polycrisis,” noting that while the term remains relevant in certain regional and institutional contexts, it appears less applicable as a descriptor of 2025 landscape. He contrasts the intense disruptions of 2020–2022 with the current relative calm in financial markets, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Tooze suggests that

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Echoes of Uncertainty: Reimagining Complexity of Global Risks in the Shadow of the Russian–Ukrainian Conflict

The authors explore risk perceptions in Ukraine and Poland in the context of the ongoing Russian–Ukrainian conflict. Drawing on cross-sectional survey data, the research reveals significant differences in how respondents from both countries perceive a range of global threats. By comparing perceptions of multiple potential risks that individuals may face in the foreseeable future, the

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Global Food Security in a Turbulent World: Reviewing the Impacts of the Pandemic, the War and Climate Change

The authors explore how the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine war, and climate change have jointly disrupted global food security. Drawing on recent empirical evidence, the paper examines the mechanisms through which each shock has affected the four key dimensions of food security: availability, access, utilization, and stability. By highlighting the compounding effects of these overlapping

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Impact of Global Risks on Economic Downturn in Countries Worldwide: Analysis of the Causes of the Situation and Opportunities for Growth Recovery

The authors examine the impact of global risks on economic growth dynamics across more than 200 countries from 1961 to 2023, revealing a consistent decline in growth rates linked to intertwined geopolitical, economic, social, environmental, and technological risks. Through structural analysis and analytical tools, they identify economic and environmental risks as key contributors to the

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Polycrisis and the Thucydides Trap. In: War and the World Economy

In this chapter, William Jefferies examines polycrisis as a framework for understanding the interconnected and compounding challenges facing the contemporary world—including environmental degradation, economic inequality, geopolitical tensions, and democratic backsliding. Situating these developments in the post-Cold War era, the chapter critically engages with the ideological legacy of Francis Fukuyama’s “End of History” thesis and the

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Polycrises: A New International Reality?

In this special issue of Recherche et politique appliquée, an initiative led by the Interdisciplinary Research Laboratory on Risks and Crises (LIRIC), the concept of polycrisis is explored through practical applications. Featuring contributions from graduate students, the issue offers critical reflections on the meaning, emergence, and operationalization of polycrisis across academic and francophone contexts.

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Global Interconnectedness of Risks: A Worldwide Analysis

The author explores the interconnected global risk landscape, where various risks amplify one another, potentially causing cascading effects across regions and sectors. She examines the global relationship between different types of risks and analyzes the significance of the coefficients derived from collected time panel data. Key findings include the positive correlation between net user growth

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The Global Risks Report 2025

The Global Risks Report 2025 presents insights from the Global Risks Perception Survey 2024-2025, which gathered input from over 900 experts worldwide. The report analyzes global risks across three timeframes—immediate (2025), short-to medium-term (2027), and long-term (2035)—to help decision-makers navigate current and future challenges.

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