Geopolitics and International Security

Mapping the Hope Attractor: A Conversation with Thomas- Homer Dixon

In this conversation, Thomas Homer-Dixon introduces the Cascade Institute’s Polycrisis Core Model (PCM), a novel framework designed to map and analyse interactions among 11 critical global systems, each with multiple potential future states. The model employs cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis to evaluate over four million internally consistent scenarios, ultimately identifying 11 distinct “attractor” states. These […]

Mapping the Hope Attractor: A Conversation with Thomas- Homer Dixon Read More »

Tackling the Complex Links Between Climate Change, Conflict, and Health

The authors underscore the urgent need to address the interconnected threats of climate change, conflict, and health. They highlight how these threats not only cause direct harm, such as heat-related deaths and conflict-driven mortality, but also compound vulnerabilities by damaging health systems, disrupting essential services, and fueling cycles of instability. Fragile and conflict-affected states are

Tackling the Complex Links Between Climate Change, Conflict, and Health Read More »

The Weaponization of Emerging Technologies and Their Impact on Global Risk: A Perspective from the PfPC Emerging Security Challenges Working Group

The authors examine how emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence, synthetic biology, quantum computing, and neurotechnology, are reshaping global security risks. The study argues that traditional threat-based security models are inadequate for addressing the complex, transnational, and increasingly weaponized nature of these technologies. The authors propose a shift toward risk-based frameworks that emphasize resilience, systemic

The Weaponization of Emerging Technologies and Their Impact on Global Risk: A Perspective from the PfPC Emerging Security Challenges Working Group Read More »

Global Systemic Stresses: Understanding the Drivers of Polycrisis

This report introduces the Cascade Institute’s Stress-Trigger-Crisis model, a systemic framework that distinguishes between slow-moving stresses that erode the resilience of global systems and fast-moving trigger events that precipitate crises. It identifies 14 global systemic stresses that affect nine vital systems: climate, ecology, food, energy, economy, infrastructure, health, social order and governance, and world order.

Global Systemic Stresses: Understanding the Drivers of Polycrisis Read More »

The Polycrisis Part I: War

In this mini-series, journalist Anthony Bartaway explores the concept of the current polycrisis. He examines its potential causes, including the collapse of the international community, the spread of disinformation, and escalating environmental issues. In the first episode, Bartaway focuses on the rise in the number of wars worldwide, using this trend to illustrate how overlapping

The Polycrisis Part I: War Read More »

Global Strategic Trends

The seventh edition of Global Strategic Trends presents a comprehensive analysis of global conditions projected to 2055. It identifies six interconnected drivers of change: geopolitical competition, demographic shifts, climate and environmental pressures, technological advances, economic transformation, and rising inequality. These forces are accompanied by five major contradictions, such as growing interconnectivity alongside fragmentation and rising

Global Strategic Trends Read More »

Finnish Government’s Future Report 2025

The Finnish Government’s Future Report 2025 presents a strategic foresight analysis exploring global developments up to 2045 through four possible scenarios: cooperation, tech dominance, geopolitical blocs, and collapse. It identifies 26 change drivers and 14 key uncertainties across geopolitics, technology, environment, and society, aiming to guide Finland’s long-term policy planning. The report emphasizes resilience, sustainability,

Finnish Government’s Future Report 2025 Read More »

Polycrisis — is this the sequel?

In this article, Adam Tooze revisits the concept of “polycrisis,” noting that while the term remains relevant in certain regional and institutional contexts, it appears less applicable as a descriptor of 2025 landscape. He contrasts the intense disruptions of 2020–2022 with the current relative calm in financial markets, despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. Tooze suggests that

Polycrisis — is this the sequel? Read More »

Echoes of Uncertainty: Reimagining Complexity of Global Risks in the Shadow of the Russian–Ukrainian Conflict

The authors explore risk perceptions in Ukraine and Poland in the context of the ongoing Russian–Ukrainian conflict. Drawing on cross-sectional survey data, the research reveals significant differences in how respondents from both countries perceive a range of global threats. By comparing perceptions of multiple potential risks that individuals may face in the foreseeable future, the

Echoes of Uncertainty: Reimagining Complexity of Global Risks in the Shadow of the Russian–Ukrainian Conflict Read More »

Global Food Security in a Turbulent World: Reviewing the Impacts of the Pandemic, the War and Climate Change

The authors explore how the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine war, and climate change have jointly disrupted global food security. Drawing on recent empirical evidence, the paper examines the mechanisms through which each shock has affected the four key dimensions of food security: availability, access, utilization, and stability. By highlighting the compounding effects of these overlapping

Global Food Security in a Turbulent World: Reviewing the Impacts of the Pandemic, the War and Climate Change Read More »

Scroll to Top