The report presents Eurasia Group’s annual forecast of the political risks most likely to play out over the course of 2026. It outlines ten key global developments expected to shape the geopolitical landscape, including state-level conflicts, technological disruption, institutional challenges, and economic pressures. The analysis frames 2026 as a potential tipping point, marked by heightened […]
In this article, Yuen Yuen Ang argues that 2025 marks not just the end of the postwar global order but the emergence of a new one. She examines the collapse of a system built on US-led geopolitical stability, industrial progress, and globalization, highlighting internal contradictions such as concentrated authority, widening inequality, environmental degradation, and political
The World Order After 2025 Read More »
The Crisis24 Global Risk Forecast 2026 provides a strategic outlook on the evolving risk landscape heading into 2026. It identifies a global environment marked by intensifying geopolitical competition, persistent economic volatility, increasing cyber vulnerabilities, and escalating climate disruptions. The report emphasizes the convergence of immediate shocks with deeper structural stressors, highlighting how interconnected and compounding
Global Risk Forecast 2026 Read More »
The authors critically examine three existential threats facing humanity in the 21st century: advanced artificial intelligence, escalating climate change, and nuclear weapons. Drawing on scientific consensus and growing institutional concern, they explore the structural features that make each threat existential and analyze their dangerous interactions. The authors propose a framework for future inquiry, policy, and
The November Global Risk Review Report delivers concise, strategic analysis of key geopolitical, economic and humanitarian developments shaping global stability. This edition highlights a world defined by enduring geopolitical volatility, systemic fragility and accelerating power shifts.
Global Risk Review: November 2025 Read More »
In this conversation, Thomas Homer-Dixon introduces the Cascade Institute’s Polycrisis Core Model (PCM), a novel framework designed to map and analyse interactions among 11 critical global systems, each with multiple potential future states. The model employs cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis to evaluate over four million internally consistent scenarios, ultimately identifying 11 distinct “attractor” states. These
Mapping the Hope Attractor: A Conversation with Thomas- Homer Dixon Read More »
The authors underscore the urgent need to address the interconnected threats of climate change, conflict, and health. They highlight how these threats not only cause direct harm, such as heat-related deaths and conflict-driven mortality, but also compound vulnerabilities by damaging health systems, disrupting essential services, and fueling cycles of instability. Fragile and conflict-affected states are
Tackling the Complex Links Between Climate Change, Conflict, and Health Read More »
The authors examine how emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence, synthetic biology, quantum computing, and neurotechnology, are reshaping global security risks. The study argues that traditional threat-based security models are inadequate for addressing the complex, transnational, and increasingly weaponized nature of these technologies. The authors propose a shift toward risk-based frameworks that emphasize resilience, systemic
This report introduces the Cascade Institute’s Stress-Trigger-Crisis model, a systemic framework that distinguishes between slow-moving stresses that erode the resilience of global systems and fast-moving trigger events that precipitate crises. It identifies 14 global systemic stresses that affect nine vital systems: climate, ecology, food, energy, economy, infrastructure, health, social order and governance, and world order.
Global Systemic Stresses: Understanding the Drivers of Polycrisis Read More »
In this mini-series, journalist Anthony Bartaway explores the concept of the current polycrisis. He examines its potential causes, including the collapse of the international community, the spread of disinformation, and escalating environmental issues. In the first episode, Bartaway focuses on the rise in the number of wars worldwide, using this trend to illustrate how overlapping
The Polycrisis Part I: War Read More »
