Geopolitics and International Security

Managing Foreign Policy Complexity under Polycrisis: A Conceptual Analysis of Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence

This paper argues that the polycrisis exceeds the analytical capacity of traditional diplomatic institutions. The author contends that the ability to manage complexity has become an important source of geopolitical advantage, though the polycrisis has not replaced the older logics of expansion and dominance. The paper examines how artificial intelligence can strengthen the analytical and […]

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The Geopolitical Transformation of the EU in the Era of Polycrisis: Hybrid Adaptation of a Compound Polity After 2022

This article examines the geopolitical transformation of the European Union within the context of polycrisis, explaining how interconnected pressures are reshaping European governance, its adaptive capacity, and its patterns of legitimation. The analysis demonstrates that the EU has not evolved into a coherent, sovereign geopolitical actor, but rather into a more strategically adaptive and selectively

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Sky-High Oil Prices. A Fertilizer Shortage. Now Add a “Super El Niño.”

This article argues that the war involving Iran, particularly through the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has driven up oil and fertilizer prices, triggering supply shortages that threaten global agricultural production just as climate pressures intensify. The anticipated arrival of a strong or “super” El Niño is expected to further disrupt weather patterns, compounding

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Geopolitical Fractures 2026: Where the Next Crisis Already Lives

The report maps structural fractures across the systems through which geopolitical power is actually exercised and tracks how they compound. It identifies four main fractures: a dollar system held together by lock-in rather than trust; an insurance void where coverage masks a widening gap between premiums collected and losses actually paid; a physical infrastructure substrate

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Shock Absorbers or Amplifiers? How Do Firms Transmit Shocks in a Polycrisis Era?

The authors explore how global oil prices and geopolitical tensions are reshaping the spread of financial risk among firms worldwide. Analyzing over 1,300 publicly listed companies in 55 countries between 2016 and 2023, they find that slow-building, long-term shifts in oil prices and geopolitical instability do the most damage, embedding risk more deeply into corporate

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You Can’t Have a Revolution Without Revolution: Navigating Polycrisis and Political Change in Iran

This article examines the war involving Iran through the lens of polycrisis and revolutionary theory, arguing that externally driven attempts at regime change risk deepening interconnected crises rather than producing meaningful political transformation. The article situates the conflict within a broader regional and global polycrisis, highlighting how war, energy disruptions, food insecurity, economic instability, displacement,

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Governing Environmental Risk in an Era of Geopolitical Instability

This article argues that environmental change is now an immediate driver of geopolitical instability and market disruption, not just a long-term risk. It highlights how climate change and nature loss interact with geopolitical rivalry, supply chain fragility, and financial risk, creating reinforcing feedback loops that are often overlooked due to siloed approaches to risk assessment

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Dynamics of Polycrisis 2.0

This commentary reviews fifteen continuing dynamics of the polycrisis and examines how they have changed over the past year. It argues that global instability is increasingly driven by the interaction of multiple reinforcing crises, including proliferating armed conflicts, escalating geopolitical rivalry, the breakdown of international cooperation, rising inequality, democratic backsliding, and intensifying climate disruption. The

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It is Now 85 Seconds to Midnight

This statement from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists sets the Doomsday Clock at 85 seconds to midnight, the closest it has ever been, signaling an intensifying risk of global catastrophe. It highlights the convergence of escalating threats, including nuclear conflict, climate change, biotechnology risks, and unregulated artificial intelligence, all compounded by rising nationalism, autocracy,

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Global Catastrophic Risks 2026

This report presents the Global Challenges Foundation’s assessment of the most pressing catastrophic risks facing humanity today. It identifies five key threats: catastrophic climate change, ecological collapse, weapons of mass destruction, the use of AI in military decision-making, and near-Earth asteroids. The report highlights how these risks are becoming increasingly interconnected, accelerating and reinforcing one

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