Geopolitics and International Security Archives

Six Major Risks in Modern Society: Research Progress and Future Directions

The authors review six major systemic risks facing modern societies: geopolitical risks, global meteorological disaster risks, regional environmental risks, global supply chain risks, systemic financial risks, and technology-mediated societal and institutional risks. They show how these risks increasingly interact across political, economic, environmental, technological, and social systems, allowing disruptions in one domain to generate cascading […]

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Global Risk Review

The July 2026 Global Risk Review identifies geopolitical escalation, climate extremes, digital misinformation, public health emergencies, and digital transformation as five key global risks. The report argues that these risks are increasingly reinforcing one another, creating a complex threat environment in which disruptions cascade across political, economic, social, and environmental systems. Through thematic analyses and

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Managing Foreign Policy Complexity under Polycrisis: A Conceptual Analysis of Opportunities and Risks of Artificial Intelligence

This paper argues that the polycrisis exceeds the analytical capacity of traditional diplomatic institutions. The author contends that the ability to manage complexity has become an important source of geopolitical advantage, though the polycrisis has not replaced the older logics of expansion and dominance. The paper examines how artificial intelligence can strengthen the analytical and

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The Geopolitical Transformation of the EU in the Era of Polycrisis: Hybrid Adaptation of a Compound Polity After 2022

This article examines the geopolitical transformation of the European Union within the context of polycrisis, explaining how interconnected pressures are reshaping European governance, its adaptive capacity, and its patterns of legitimation. The analysis demonstrates that the EU has not evolved into a coherent, sovereign geopolitical actor, but rather into a more strategically adaptive and selectively

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Sky-High Oil Prices. A Fertilizer Shortage. Now Add a “Super El Niño.”

This article argues that the war involving Iran, particularly through the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has driven up oil and fertilizer prices, triggering supply shortages that threaten global agricultural production just as climate pressures intensify. The anticipated arrival of a strong or “super” El Niño is expected to further disrupt weather patterns, compounding

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Geopolitical Fractures 2026: Where the Next Crisis Already Lives

The report maps structural fractures across the systems through which geopolitical power is actually exercised and tracks how they compound. It identifies four main fractures: a dollar system held together by lock-in rather than trust; an insurance void where coverage masks a widening gap between premiums collected and losses actually paid; a physical infrastructure substrate

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Shock Absorbers or Amplifiers? How Do Firms Transmit Shocks in a Polycrisis Era?

The authors explore how global oil prices and geopolitical tensions are reshaping the spread of financial risk among firms worldwide. Analyzing over 1,300 publicly listed companies in 55 countries between 2016 and 2023, they find that slow-building, long-term shifts in oil prices and geopolitical instability do the most damage, embedding risk more deeply into corporate

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You Can’t Have a Revolution Without Revolution: Navigating Polycrisis and Political Change in Iran

This article examines the war involving Iran through the lens of polycrisis and revolutionary theory, arguing that externally driven attempts at regime change risk deepening interconnected crises rather than producing meaningful political transformation. The article situates the conflict within a broader regional and global polycrisis, highlighting how war, energy disruptions, food insecurity, economic instability, displacement,

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Governing Environmental Risk in an Era of Geopolitical Instability

This article argues that environmental change is now an immediate driver of geopolitical instability and market disruption, not just a long-term risk. It highlights how climate change and nature loss interact with geopolitical rivalry, supply chain fragility, and financial risk, creating reinforcing feedback loops that are often overlooked due to siloed approaches to risk assessment

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