Paul Gilding argues that the world has reached “a multi-system tipping point” that will bring “the Great Disruption”: “a destabilisation of the global climate system at a scale that is so chaotic, unpredictable and costly, it will trigger cascading disruptive change in the global economy, national politics, investment markets and geopolitical security.” Gilding predicts that […]
The Great Disruption has Begun Read More »
This 18th edition of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report is based on a risk perceptions survey of 1200 experts on the likelihood, severity, and interconnections between 37 global risks. It finds that the biggest risk in the next two years is the cost of living crisis, and the biggest risk in the next
Global Risks Report 2023 Read More »
Ian Bremmer and Cliff Kupchan present their top ten geopolitical risks for 2023: an increasingly rogue and reckless Russia; an increasingly powerful and unconstrained Xi Jinping; the weaponization of artificial intelligence; shockwaves of global inflation; Iran backed into a corner; higher energy prices; reversals of development; political divisions in the United States; the disruptive digital
The report highlights the distinctive harms for children and future generations of eight global trends that are part of the polycrisis: continued impacts of the pandemic, inflation, food insecurity, energy shortages, underinvestment in children, threats to democratic rights, international factionalism, and internet inequality.
Prospects for Children in the Polycrisis: A 2023 Global Outlook Read More »
This report analyzes actionable “tipping points” within global energy systems (fertilizer, shipping, power, etc.) that could produce a cascade of emissions reductions. The technology adoption needed to reach these positive tipping points is dependent on cost-effectiveness, attractiveness, and accessibility, but if these barriers are overcome, it could result in massive, self-reinforcing environmental improvements. The authors
Against those who anticipate a smooth, timely transition to renewable energy and net-zero carbon emissions, Vaclav Smil argues that we are much more dependent on fossil fuels than we recognize so that an energy transition will be difficult and tumultuous. “The real wrench in the works: we are a fossil-fueled civilization whose technical and scientific
How the World Really Works Read More »
The authors argue that the worldwide production and distribution of food, fuel, and fibre has created a “global production ecosystem” subject to immense simplification, intensification, and control by humans attempting to maximize efficiency. The resulting system is homogenous, highly connected, and has weak feedbacks – “features [that] converge to yield high and predictable supplies of
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The authors argue we are increasingly witnessing a new form global crises they characterize as “synchronous failure.” This form of crisis “is more biophysical in origin, more inter-systemic in manifestation, more global in scope, and more rapid in development” (5). The deep cause of synchronous failure are increases in energy throughput, heightened global connectivity, and
Synchronous Failure: The Emerging Causal Architecture of Global Crisis Read More »
The authors argue that the world faces an increasing concatenation of crisis in time and space due to “the increased strength of global vs. local drivers of change, so that changes become increasingly synchronized”, and dense global connectivity, which enables crises to propagate and sometimes sees risk management efforts in one region to become crisis
Are we Entering an Era of Concatenated Global Crises? Read More »
After explaining the shortcomings of other accounts of societal collapses, Joseph Tainter presents his own, universal theory. Societies, he argues, are problem solving organizations that solve an unending stream of problems by increasing their complexity. Each addition of complexity, however, has an energetic costs to create and maintain it. Because societies solve their easiest problems
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