Economy

Cascading Failure, Financial Network and Systemic Risk

This paper addresses the challenge of accurately measuring systemic risk by introducing a novel indicator, Expected Shortfall Rank (ESRank), which accounts for cascading failures and network effects often overlooked in traditional models. Using LASSO to construct tail risk networks among financial institutions and ΔCoES to simulate contagion dynamics, the study develops a general cascading failure […]

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Ten Principles for Transforming Economics in a Time of Global Crises

The authors present a qualitative analysis of 238 sources spanning 38 alternative economic approaches and identify ten shared principles for transforming economics in response to the global polycrisis. These principles include social–ecological embeddedness, limits to growth, equity, and post-capitalist thinking, and span ecological, social, political economy and holistic domains. Seeking to bring coherence to a

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Polycrisis and the Thucydides Trap. In: War and the World Economy

In this chapter, William Jefferies examines polycrisis as a framework for understanding the interconnected and compounding challenges facing the contemporary world—including environmental degradation, economic inequality, geopolitical tensions, and democratic backsliding. Situating these developments in the post-Cold War era, the chapter critically engages with the ideological legacy of Francis Fukuyama’s “End of History” thesis and the

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From Polycrisis to Polysolutions: An Interdisciplinary Approach to Complex Global Challenges

This PolyCIVIS Foundational Brief explores the complexities of the polycrisis, examining the human dimension and focusing on governance, economic systems, and public trust. It analyzes the politics of framing the polycrisis and how existing governance structures can inadvertently contribute to its intricacy. It emphasizes the need for long-term, systemic solutions over short-term measures and advocates

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Global Interconnectedness of Risks: A Worldwide Analysis

The author explores the interconnected global risk landscape, where various risks amplify one another, potentially causing cascading effects across regions and sectors. She examines the global relationship between different types of risks and analyzes the significance of the coefficients derived from collected time panel data. Key findings include the positive correlation between net user growth

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Exploring the interdependence of climate, finance, energy, and geopolitics: A conceptual framework for systemic risks amidst multiple crises

This study proposes a framework to analyze the dynamics and risk channels between the climate crisis, financial stability, the geopolitical energy crisis, and the energy transitions. The framework is presented in a step-by-step guide and applied in a study case in Germany.

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