Africa’s Greater Horn Region Is Facing a Looming Polycrisis Fueled by Conflict, Prices, Climate and Disease

This article argues that the Greater Horn of Africa is facing a looming polycrisis driven by the interaction of climate extremes, violent conflict, disease outbreaks, and rising food and fertiliser prices, compounded by weakening humanitarian capacity. The authors contend that these overlapping shocks are mutually reinforcing rather than additive, increasing the risk of famine, displacement, epidemics, and mass mortality across the region. They warn that the dismantling of international aid systems, particularly following the closure of USAID and major cuts to Western foreign assistance, has left governments and humanitarian organisations less prepared than in previous crises. The article calls for urgent support for locally led mutual aid networks, improved monitoring and accountability, and stronger action to address violent conflict, which it identifies as the most significant driver of the region’s escalating humanitarian emergency.