Ian Bremmer and Cliff Kupchan present their top ten geopolitical risks for 2023: an increasingly rogue and reckless Russia; an increasingly powerful and unconstrained Xi Jinping; the weaponization of artificial intelligence; shockwaves of global inflation; Iran backed into a corner; higher energy prices; reversals of development; political divisions in the United States; the disruptive digital […]
This report analyzes actionable “tipping points” within global energy systems (fertilizer, shipping, power, etc.) that could produce a cascade of emissions reductions. The technology adoption needed to reach these positive tipping points is dependent on cost-effectiveness, attractiveness, and accessibility, but if these barriers are overcome, it could result in massive, self-reinforcing environmental improvements. The authors
Strong explores the impacts of polycrisis on the way people think, feel, and behave, highlighting several psychological responses to polycrisis: existential fear, the search for safety and protection, connection to place, the struggle to regain a sense of control, and the more fluid forms of cognition (e.g., the turn to conspiracy theories) by which people
Understanding human psychology during the polycrisis Read More »
This discussion paper proposes that “A global polycrisis occurs when crises in multiple systems become causally entangled in ways that significantly reduce humanity’s prospects. These interacting crises produce harms greater than the sum of those the crises would produce in isolation, were their host systems not so deeply intertwined” (p. 2). The authors then elaborate
What is a Global Polycrisis? And how is it Different from a Systemic Risk? Read More »
The authors propose that hitherto unrecognized, complex teleconnections and self-reinforcing feedbacks among global systems are accelerating, amplifying, and synchronizing crises. The ultimate result of such unrecognized processes could be a global polycrisis—a single, macro-crisis of interconnected, runaway failures of Earth’s vital natural and social systems that irreversibly degrades humanity’s prospects. The authors therefore call for
A Call for an International Research Program on the Risk of a Global Polycrisis Read More »
The report provides an overview of several catastrophic risks that are potentially global in scope: weapons of mass destruction, pandemics, artificial intelligence, asteroids, climate change, super-volcanic eruptions, ecological collapse, population growth, and climate tipping points. For each risk, it explores the key factors that affect the risk levels and the extant governance frameworks that address
Global Catastrophic Risks 2022: A Year of Colliding Consequences Read More »
Starting from the premise that society will collapse in the near-term, Jem Bendell argues that rather than debating the inevitability of that collapse we should consider what to do when it happens. He proposes a “deep adaptation agenda” as a framework for community dialogue to face the challenges, including four themes: resilience, relinquishment, restoration, and
Deep Adaptation: A Map for Navigating Climate Tragedy (revised 2nd edition) Read More »
Complex systems have leverage points, critical places where a change can profoundly alter system behaviors. Donella Meadows explores twelve leverage points in complex systems using real-world examples. “Leverage points are not easily accessible, even if we know where they are and which direction to push on them…you have to work at it, whether that means
Places to Intervene in a System Read More »
