Think Tank (or University) Report Archives - Page 2 of 3

Principles for Systemic Risk Assessment and Response

In this publication, the Accelerator for Systemic Risk Assessment presents the Principles for Systemic Risk Assessment and Response. Co-developed with a diverse network of experts, these principles aim to redefine our understanding of risk, accelerate awareness of the interconnected threats we face, and guide transformative action to safeguard Earth’s ecological systems and human well-being from […]

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Flourishing Urban Futures to Overcome Polycrises – Roadmap for Resilience 2050

This report presents the outcomes of two Millennium Project Special Sessions held at the 2022 and 2023 FFRC Futures Conferences in Turku, Finland. Through participatory Futures Cliniques, the sessions explored how cities can build resilience in the face of polycrises. The report documents both the results and the methods used, offering valuable insights for students,

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Mitigating Global Warming is Not Our Only Problem: Are We “Sleepwalking” Towards a Global Polycrisis?

William White argues that climate policy around the world is lacking in dimensions of “should” (clear analysis of what must be done), “could” (the power to implement solutions), and “would” (the actual use of that power to address the problem). The even greater challenge, however, is that climate change is not the only global systemic

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Global Polycrisis: The Causal Mechanisms of Crisis Entanglement

The authors translate polycrisis from a loose concept into a research agenda by providing the concept with a substantive definition, highlighting its value-added in comparison to related concepts, and developing a theoretical framework to explain the causal mechanisms currently entangling many of the world’s crises. In this framework, a global crisis arises when one or

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Top Risks 2023

Ian Bremmer and Cliff Kupchan present their top ten geopolitical risks for 2023: an increasingly rogue and reckless Russia; an increasingly powerful and unconstrained Xi Jinping; the weaponization of artificial intelligence; shockwaves of global inflation; Iran backed into a corner; higher energy prices; reversals of development; political divisions in the United States; the disruptive digital

The Breakthrough Effect: How to Trigger a Cascade of Tipping Points to Accelerate the Net Zero Transition

This report analyzes actionable “tipping points” within global energy systems (fertilizer, shipping, power, etc.) that could produce a cascade of emissions reductions. The technology adoption needed to reach these positive tipping points is dependent on cost-effectiveness, attractiveness, and accessibility, but if these barriers are overcome, it could result in massive, self-reinforcing environmental improvements. The authors

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Understanding human psychology during the polycrisis

Strong explores the impacts of polycrisis on the way people think, feel, and behave, highlighting several psychological responses to polycrisis: existential fear, the search for safety and protection, connection to place, the struggle to regain a sense of control, and the more fluid forms of cognition (e.g., the turn to conspiracy theories) by which people

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What is a Global Polycrisis? And how is it Different from a Systemic Risk?

This discussion paper proposes that “A global polycrisis occurs when crises in multiple systems become causally entangled in ways that significantly reduce humanity’s prospects. These interacting crises produce harms greater than the sum of those the crises would produce in isolation, were their host systems not so deeply intertwined” (p. 2). The authors then elaborate

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A Call for an International Research Program on the Risk of a Global Polycrisis

The authors propose that hitherto unrecognized, complex teleconnections and self-reinforcing feedbacks among global systems are accelerating, amplifying, and synchronizing crises. The ultimate result of such unrecognized processes could be a global polycrisis—a single, macro-crisis of interconnected, runaway failures of Earth’s vital natural and social systems that irreversibly degrades humanity’s prospects. The authors therefore call for

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Global Catastrophic Risks 2022: A Year of Colliding Consequences

The report provides an overview of several catastrophic risks that are potentially global in scope: weapons of mass destruction, pandemics, artificial intelligence, asteroids, climate change, super-volcanic eruptions, ecological collapse, population growth, and climate tipping points. For each risk, it explores the key factors that affect the risk levels and the extant governance frameworks that address

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