In this handbook, Cascade Institute Polycrisis Fellow Michael Lawrence explains how to read and draw a causal loop diagrams (CLD)–a systems mapping technique that helps us to think through our mental model of a system, increase our understanding of a system, and communicate our knowledge to others. It clarifies some common sources of confusion, provides […]
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The Swiss Re Institute, the research arm of Swiss Re Reinsurance, harnesses their risk knowledge in re/insurance to produce data driven research with partner organizations, shared via publications such as SONAR. SONAR is an annual publication that focuses on outlining emerging risks based on early signals gathered throughout the year. The 2024 SONAR report features
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Global Tipping Points is a report, led by the University of Exeter’s Global Systems Institute and funded by the Bezos Earth Fund, that identifies negative and positive tipping points with regards to ongoing global crises. According to the report, the existence of negative tipping points shows that the threats posed by the current crises we
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In this publication, the Accelerator for Systemic Risk Assessment presents the Principles for Systemic Risk Assessment and Response. Co-developed with a diverse network of experts, these principles aim to redefine our understanding of risk, accelerate awareness of the interconnected threats we face, and guide transformative action to safeguard Earth’s ecological systems and human well-being from
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This report presents the outcomes of two Millennium Project Special Sessions held at the 2022 and 2023 FFRC Futures Conferences in Turku, Finland. Through participatory Futures Cliniques, the sessions explored how cities can build resilience in the face of polycrises. The report documents both the results and the methods used, offering valuable insights for students,
Flourishing Urban Futures to Overcome Polycrises – Roadmap for Resilience 2050 Read More »
William White argues that climate policy around the world is lacking in dimensions of “should” (clear analysis of what must be done), “could” (the power to implement solutions), and “would” (the actual use of that power to address the problem). The even greater challenge, however, is that climate change is not the only global systemic
The authors translate polycrisis from a loose concept into a research agenda by providing the concept with a substantive definition, highlighting its value-added in comparison to related concepts, and developing a theoretical framework to explain the causal mechanisms currently entangling many of the world’s crises. In this framework, a global crisis arises when one or
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Ian Bremmer and Cliff Kupchan present their top ten geopolitical risks for 2023: an increasingly rogue and reckless Russia; an increasingly powerful and unconstrained Xi Jinping; the weaponization of artificial intelligence; shockwaves of global inflation; Iran backed into a corner; higher energy prices; reversals of development; political divisions in the United States; the disruptive digital
This report analyzes actionable “tipping points” within global energy systems (fertilizer, shipping, power, etc.) that could produce a cascade of emissions reductions. The technology adoption needed to reach these positive tipping points is dependent on cost-effectiveness, attractiveness, and accessibility, but if these barriers are overcome, it could result in massive, self-reinforcing environmental improvements. The authors
Strong explores the impacts of polycrisis on the way people think, feel, and behave, highlighting several psychological responses to polycrisis: existential fear, the search for safety and protection, connection to place, the struggle to regain a sense of control, and the more fluid forms of cognition (e.g., the turn to conspiracy theories) by which people
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