Academic Journal Article Archives - Page 2 of 17

It’s Time to Consider Global Catastrophic Food Failures

The authors explore how food systems face interconnected, systemic risks that could culminate in widespread disruptions, potentially triggering extreme global famine, alongside other neglected extreme risks. They introduce the term Global Catastrophic Food Failure (GCFF) as a type of global catastrophic risk, intended to unify diverse strands of research focused on ensuring global food availability […]

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Positive Externalities in the Polycrisis: Effectively Addressing Disaster and Climate Risks for Generating Multiple Resilience Dividends

This paper argues that, in the context of the Polycrisis, further investment is urgently needed to address the underlying drivers of disaster and climate-related risks. The authors examine the state of arts of the Triple Dividend of Resilience (TDR) framework, a concept that suggests resilience investments yield not only risk reduction benefits from intervention investments,

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A Systemic Risk Assessment Methodological Framework for the Global Polycrisis

The paper examines two historical global food–energy crises, highlighting the limitations of traditional risk management approaches in addressing today’s complex and interconnected global risks. The authors propose a methodological framework for assessing systemic risks in a global polycrisis context, which includes exploring system architectures, considering transformational responses away from risks, and applying cross-cutting practices. They

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The Impact of Polycrisis on Healthcare Systems—Analyzing Challenges and the Role of Social Epidemiology

This article examines how overlapping global crises are converging to form a polycrisis that places unprecedented strain on healthcare systems worldwide. Applying social epidemiology to the analysis of polycrisis, the authors highlight how these interconnected threats amplify one another, exposing systemic vulnerabilities and deepening health inequities. Drawing on data from missed hospitalizations, conflict zones such

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Dimensional characterization and Pathway Modeling for Catastrophic AI Risks

This paper examines catastrophic AI risks using a framework that combines seven risk dimensions: intent, competency, entity, polarity, linearity, reach, and order, along with risk pathway modelling to link hazards to harms. It analyzes six major risk types: Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN); cyber offence; sudden and gradual loss of control; environmental; and geopolitical.

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Coping with Persistent Disruptive Stressors and Polycrisis: Community-Based Policy Making and Local Empowerment

The authors propose a conceptual framework for governing polycrisis and systemic risks through a bottom-up, community-based approach. They introduce the “risk governance triangle”, linking persistent disruptive stressors, risk-absorbing systems, and contextual modifiers, and structure these elements using the Pagoda model, which identifies five interrelated layers: natural conditions, institutional arrangements, technical and social infrastructure, the built

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Tipping Cascades Between Conflict and Cooperation in Climate Change

The authors examine the complex interplay between climate change and security, offering a systems-based modelling approach to understanding transitions between conflict and cooperation. Drawing on empirical research and the case study of Lake Chad, the article explores how climate risks act as conflict multipliers through tipping points, cascading effects, and multi-agent interactions. Using bi-stable tipping

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Towards a Theory of Coupled Sociopolitical Events-Planetary Boundaries, Crises, Policrisis and Earth System Syndromes

This paper introduces a novel modelling framework to evaluate how specific sociopolitical events influence the Earth System and their interaction with Planetary Boundaries. The authors present an interacting matrix model that links sociopolitical dynamics with biophysical thresholds, enabling the exploration of possible future trajectories, including scenarios that may trigger crises and polycrises. By modelling Planetary

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Understanding Polycrisis: Definitions, Applications, and Responses

This paper compares conceptualizations of the term “polycrisis,” raising questions about the key aspects of different definitions while stressing a convergence in critical features. It conceives a polycrisis as a state in which multiple, macroregional, ecologically embedded, and inexorably interconnected systems face high – and advancing – risk across socioeconomic, political, and other dimensions. After

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