Academic Journal Article Archives

Stress-Testing the Resilience of Critical Infrastructures Exposed to Polycrises Triggered by Emerging Risks

The article introduces a new approach to stress-testing the resilience of critical infrastructures that are exposed or potentially exposed to adverse events, polycrises, or disasters. It focuses on extreme threats (XTs) that may trigger polycrises and proposes the use of resilience and threat indicators, quantitative stress-testing methods, and standardized solutions. This integrated approach seeks to […]

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Public Attitudes to Responding to Global Catastrophic Risks: A New Zealand Case Study

This paper examines public opinion on the New Zealand government’s potential role in planning for global catastrophic risks. Based on a representative survey, 66% of respondents supported the government developing specific plans to address catastrophic risks, and 60% supported establishing a dedicated commission or agency. Support was positively associated with age, education, income, and trust

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Characterizing the Global Polycrisis: A Systematic Review of Recent Literature

The authors examine the concept of polycrisis, a term that has gained prominence for describing the interconnected nature of global challenges. Through a systematic review of 2,299 publications, the results indicate a common understanding of the polycrisis as multiple co-occurring, causally entangled crises with synergistic and cascading effects on multiple systems degrading humanity’s prospects. While

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It’s Time to Consider Global Catastrophic Food Failures

The authors explore how food systems face interconnected, systemic risks that could culminate in widespread disruptions, potentially triggering extreme global famine, alongside other neglected extreme risks. They introduce the term Global Catastrophic Food Failure (GCFF) as a type of global catastrophic risk, intended to unify diverse strands of research focused on ensuring global food availability

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Positive Externalities in the Polycrisis: Effectively Addressing Disaster and Climate Risks for Generating Multiple Resilience Dividends

This paper argues that, in the context of the Polycrisis, further investment is urgently needed to address the underlying drivers of disaster and climate-related risks. The authors examine the state of arts of the Triple Dividend of Resilience (TDR) framework, a concept that suggests resilience investments yield not only risk reduction benefits from intervention investments,

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A Systemic Risk Assessment Methodological Framework for the Global Polycrisis

The paper examines two historical global food–energy crises, highlighting the limitations of traditional risk management approaches in addressing today’s complex and interconnected global risks. The authors propose a methodological framework for assessing systemic risks in a global polycrisis context, which includes exploring system architectures, considering transformational responses away from risks, and applying cross-cutting practices. They

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Dimensional characterization and Pathway Modeling for Catastrophic AI Risks

This paper examines catastrophic AI risks using a framework that combines seven risk dimensions: intent, competency, entity, polarity, linearity, reach, and order, along with risk pathway modelling to link hazards to harms. It analyzes six major risk types: Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN); cyber offence; sudden and gradual loss of control; environmental; and geopolitical.

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Coping with Persistent Disruptive Stressors and Polycrisis: Community-Based Policy Making and Local Empowerment

The authors propose a conceptual framework for governing polycrisis and systemic risks through a bottom-up, community-based approach. They introduce the “risk governance triangle”, linking persistent disruptive stressors, risk-absorbing systems, and contextual modifiers, and structure these elements using the Pagoda model, which identifies five interrelated layers: natural conditions, institutional arrangements, technical and social infrastructure, the built

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Towards a Theory of Coupled Sociopolitical Events-Planetary Boundaries, Crises, Policrisis and Earth System Syndromes

This paper introduces a novel modelling framework to evaluate how specific sociopolitical events influence the Earth System and their interaction with Planetary Boundaries. The authors present an interacting matrix model that links sociopolitical dynamics with biophysical thresholds, enabling the exploration of possible future trajectories, including scenarios that may trigger crises and polycrises. By modelling Planetary

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