Systemic Risk

Our Polycrisis Demands a Radically New Approach to Risk Management

Ruth Richardson, the Executive Director of the Accelerator for Systemic Risk Assessment, argues that the “escalating global polycrisis demands an urgent and transformative shift in how we assess, anticipate, and mitigate systemic risks.” She then suggests a range of practical actions governments could take to better contend with polycrisis, such as creating a Minister for […]

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Systemic contributions to global catastrophic risk

This article examines two distinct but related approaches to the global risk landscape: one explores how risks emerge from complex global systems, while the other focuses on worst-case outcomes. The authors present a framework that connects these perspectives, highlighting how emergent properties of the global system—such as hazards, amplification, vulnerability, and latent risks—drive the potential

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FuturePod Interview with Drs. Megan Shipman and Michael Lawrence

In this episode of FuturePod, host Dr. Peter Hayward speaks with Drs. Megan Shipman and Michael Lawrence of the Cascade Institute about the current global polycrisis, and their recently published Positive Pathways report and accompanying workshop. Shipman, Lawrence, and Hayward discuss the four key factors proposed by Dr. Thomas Homer-Dixon that define today’s polycrisis, provide

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Framework on Management of Emerging Critical Risks

This report presents a seven-step framework to help governments manage emerging critical risks in an increasingly interconnected global landscape, shaped by complex economic, social, and technological systems. It outlines processes for risk identification, assessment, information-sharing, maturity evaluation, and strategic planning to enhance flexibility and adaptability. By integrating emerging risks into traditional risk management approaches, the

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SONAR 2024: New Emerging Risk Insights

The Swiss Re Institute, the research arm of Swiss Re Reinsurance, harnesses their risk knowledge in re/insurance to produce data driven research with partner organizations, shared via publications such as SONAR. SONAR is an annual publication that focuses on outlining emerging risks based on early signals gathered throughout the year. The 2024 SONAR report features

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A delusion of control: Loss of agency in modern complex systems

This article argues that as “we increasingly rely on [globalized complex adaptive systems], we surrender more and more individual autonomy and agency, diminishing our ability to actually control our outcomes and wellbeing.” Concomitantly, “the illusion that we as individuals–or even as a society–can fully control the modern complex systems-of-systems that enable modern living is a

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Risks on the Horizon

This study introduces a foresight approach to the analysis of future risks to support anticipatory decision-making. In participatory foresight processes, using horizon scanning outputs, it explores potential future developments and impacts of change within these futures and analyzes the risks and opportunities they may create. The study also presents a Delphi survey that evaluates the

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An interdisciplinary review of systemic risk factors leading up to existential risks

The author explores the interdisciplinary nature of systemic risks arising from economic, technological, sociopolitical, and ecological factors. He aims to establish a foundation for an integrated approach to systemic risks, highlighting the need to align risk factors and terminology to strengthen global resilience against cascading threats.

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WTW Research Network Risk & Resilience Review: Emerging Risks from Geopolitical Shifts

This report by the WTW Research Network “introduces research and opinions that provide new perspectives to support risk management and resilience.” In particular, this report focuses on WTW’s work in geopolitics, topics such as supply chains, national competition, and emerging risks and their interconnectivity. WTW posits that the topics covered “highlight a need for an

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