In this interview, Dr.Thomas Homer-Dixon reflects on his intellectual journey from studying political science and human conflict to developing a broader framework for understanding interconnected global crises. He explains the concept of polycrisis as the synchronization of multiple, linked crises rather than a coincidence of separate shocks, suggesting that today’s converging disruptions may reflect deeper […]
Reflections by Thomas Homer-Dixon Read More »
This article argues that the most consequential risks of the coming years will emerge not from individual crises but from their interaction, eroding trust and fragmenting systems. It identifies four risk trends likely to shape the path to 2030: the emergence of an increasingly polycentric world as US global leadership becomes more selective; a deepening
Four Global Risk Trends Likely to Shape the Planet through 2030 Read More »
In this Cross Currents conversation, ASRA members discuss the systemic risks threatening global health security, including pandemics, antimicrobial resistance, climate-driven health crises, and fragmented global governance. They emphasize the need to move beyond siloed, reactive responses toward integrated, multi-level strategies that address the root causes of health insecurity. Key themes include the urgency of fostering
How Systemic Risks Threaten Global Health Security (And What We Can Do) Read More »
This article argues that what looks like sudden disruption is actually the visible crest of decades-long, slow-moving structural shifts. Drawing on complexity science, it explains how small, often barely perceptible stresses accumulate along a “long tail” before accelerating into exponential change and tipping points, whether in climate systems, public health, or politics. Rather than reacting
The Slow Forces Behind this Year’s Fast Crises Read More »
The Global Risks Report 2026 explores how a new competitive world order is reshaping global risks across domains. Over the next two years, geoeconomic confrontation is identified as the most severe risk, with economic and societal instability also rising sharply. Over a ten-year horizon, inequality emerges as the most interconnected long-term risk, while artificial intelligence shows the
Global Risks Report 2026: Geopolitical and Economic Risks Rise in New Age of Competition Read More »
This article examines the systemic risks and escalation dynamics shaping global politics in 2026–2027, highlighting how interconnected crises in Venezuela, the Middle East, Ukraine, and Taiwan are contributing to a globally coupled system prone to cascading instability. It argues that the erosion of international norms, intensifying domestic pressures, and overlapping regional conflicts are lowering the
Systemic Risk And Escalation Dynamics In Global Politics (2026–2027) Read More »
The report presents Eurasia Group’s annual forecast of the political risks most likely to play out over the course of 2026. It outlines ten key global developments expected to shape the geopolitical landscape, including state-level conflicts, technological disruption, institutional challenges, and economic pressures. The analysis frames 2026 as a potential tipping point, marked by heightened
In this analysis, Foreign Policy presents its annual foresight of the top global risks for 2026. Drawing on the authors’ forecasting experience at the National Intelligence Council, the report outlines ten interconnected threats, including economic crisis, the dissolution of global order, disruptive AI trajectories, and accelerating climate decline. The authors argue that the world is
Welcome to the Age of Chaos Read More »
The Allianz Risk Barometer presents its top corporate risks for 2026. The report identifies cyber incidents as the top global business risk, followed by artificial intelligence (AI). Business interruption and supply chain disruption, changes in legislation and regulation, natural catastrophes, and climate change complete the top six, while political risks and violence climbed to its
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This article introduces a focus collection on systemic risk science, arguing that systemic risks, are increasingly amplified by global warming yet remain poorly understood. It summarizes six contributing papers that highlight methodological advances in flood risk monitoring, critical infrastructure modelling, agent-based modelling, and the use of artificial intelligence in climate adaptation, while noting that current
