Systemic Risk

Navigating Systemic Risks: Governance of and for Systemic Risks

The authors explore the emergence of systemic risks in modern societies by examining how tightly coupled dynamic systems in the Anthropocene can lead to cascading failures. They argue that traditional risk governance approaches are insufficient in addressing the convergence of systemic and conventional risks. Drawing on case studies such as the COVID-19 pandemic and climate […]

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Facing Global Risks with Honest Hope: Transforming Multidimensional Challenges into Multidimensional Possibilities

This report examines the complexities of a global polycrisis, highlighting the interconnected nature of environmental, economic, and social risks. It emphasizes the urgent need for systemic risk assessment and response. Key recommendations focus on fostering public engagement, redirecting financial resources, and advancing education and research to build resilience.

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Polycrisis Research and Analysis Roadmap

This Roadmap, a collaboration between the Cascade Institute, the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, the Research Institute for Sustainability – Helmholtz Centre Potsdam, and the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, presents a plan to advance polycrisis analysis as an inclusive, credible, and recognized field of knowledge and practice. It draws on the results of a broad consultation

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Our Polycrisis Demands a Radically New Approach to Risk Management

Ruth Richardson, the Executive Director of the Accelerator for Systemic Risk Assessment, argues that the “escalating global polycrisis demands an urgent and transformative shift in how we assess, anticipate, and mitigate systemic risks.” She then suggests a range of practical actions governments could take to better contend with polycrisis, such as creating a Minister for

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Systemic contributions to global catastrophic risk

This article examines two distinct but related approaches to the global risk landscape: one explores how risks emerge from complex global systems, while the other focuses on worst-case outcomes. The authors present a framework that connects these perspectives, highlighting how emergent properties of the global system—such as hazards, amplification, vulnerability, and latent risks—drive the potential

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FuturePod Interview with Drs. Megan Shipman and Michael Lawrence

In this episode of FuturePod, host Dr. Peter Hayward speaks with Drs. Megan Shipman and Michael Lawrence of the Cascade Institute about the current global polycrisis, and their recently published Positive Pathways report and accompanying workshop. Shipman, Lawrence, and Hayward discuss the four key factors proposed by Dr. Thomas Homer-Dixon that define today’s polycrisis, provide

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Framework on Management of Emerging Critical Risks

This report presents a seven-step framework to help governments manage emerging critical risks in an increasingly interconnected global landscape, shaped by complex economic, social, and technological systems. It outlines processes for risk identification, assessment, information-sharing, maturity evaluation, and strategic planning to enhance flexibility and adaptability. By integrating emerging risks into traditional risk management approaches, the

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SONAR 2024: New Emerging Risk Insights

The Swiss Re Institute, the research arm of Swiss Re Reinsurance, harnesses their risk knowledge in re/insurance to produce data driven research with partner organizations, shared via publications such as SONAR. SONAR is an annual publication that focuses on outlining emerging risks based on early signals gathered throughout the year. The 2024 SONAR report features

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A delusion of control: Loss of agency in modern complex systems

This article argues that as “we increasingly rely on [globalized complex adaptive systems], we surrender more and more individual autonomy and agency, diminishing our ability to actually control our outcomes and wellbeing.” Concomitantly, “the illusion that we as individuals–or even as a society–can fully control the modern complex systems-of-systems that enable modern living is a

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