The authors examine how the global food trade system is vulnerable to major shocks such as abrupt sunlight reduction (from nuclear war or volcanic activity) or global infrastructure loss (from severe geomagnetic storms or pandemics). Using a network model, they find that a sunlight reduction event could cause most countries to lose 50%–100% of their […]
Food Trade Disruption After Global Catastrophes Read More »
This report introduces the Cascade Institute’s Stress-Trigger-Crisis model, a systemic framework that distinguishes between slow-moving stresses that erode the resilience of global systems and fast-moving trigger events that precipitate crises. It identifies 14 global systemic stresses that affect nine vital systems: climate, ecology, food, energy, economy, infrastructure, health, social order and governance, and world order.
Global Systemic Stresses: Understanding the Drivers of Polycrisis Read More »
The article introduces a new approach to stress-testing the resilience of critical infrastructures that are exposed or potentially exposed to adverse events, polycrises, or disasters. It focuses on extreme threats (XTs) that may trigger polycrises and proposes the use of resilience and threat indicators, quantitative stress-testing methods, and standardized solutions. This integrated approach seeks to
The authors explore how food systems face interconnected, systemic risks that could culminate in widespread disruptions, potentially triggering extreme global famine, alongside other neglected extreme risks. They introduce the term Global Catastrophic Food Failure (GCFF) as a type of global catastrophic risk, intended to unify diverse strands of research focused on ensuring global food availability
It’s Time to Consider Global Catastrophic Food Failures Read More »
This paper argues that, in the context of the Polycrisis, further investment is urgently needed to address the underlying drivers of disaster and climate-related risks. The authors examine the state of arts of the Triple Dividend of Resilience (TDR) framework, a concept that suggests resilience investments yield not only risk reduction benefits from intervention investments,
The author highlights the rise of polycrises, where interconnected challenges, such as the pandemic, climate change, wars, food insecurity, and inflation, mutually amplify one another. He argues that the traditional approach to risk assessment and management is insufficient to address the multiple facets of polycrisis and introduces a systemic risk framework to capture the systemic
New Challenge for Risk Governance: Polycrisis and Systemic Risk Read More »
In this article, the author explores how disasters such as pandemics, wars, and climate-related events are becoming increasingly interconnected, marking a shift toward what researchers describe as a polycrisis. Drawing on insights from the study “Understanding Polycrisis: Definitions, Applications, and Responses,” the piece highlights how overlapping and cascading crises reveal the fragility of global systems
Understanding Polycrisis: Why Interconnected Disasters are the New Normal Read More »
This report provides a synthesis of national approaches to managing emerging critical risks, drawing on case studies from Ireland, Israel, Korea, and the United States. Using a bespoke maturity model, it assesses how advanced each of the four OECD countries is across key dimensions of risk governance, highlighting strengths, gaps, and opportunities for improvement in
Managing Emerging Critical Risks : Case Studies and Cross-Country Synthesis Report Read More »
This article examines two distinct but related approaches to the global risk landscape: one explores how risks emerge from complex global systems, while the other focuses on worst-case outcomes. The authors present a framework that connects these perspectives, highlighting how emergent properties of the global system—such as hazards, amplification, vulnerability, and latent risks—drive the potential
Systemic Contributions to Global Catastrophic Risk Read More »
This report presents the results of a futures exercise led by ASRA to explore novel responses to escalating systemic risks between 2025 and 2045. Using the ParEvo method, a group of experts collaboratively developed storylines in response to a world shaped by compounding crises, culminating in a stress test based on a hypothetical global catastrophic
New Responses to Systemic Risks: An Exploration 2025–2045 Read More »
