Systemic Risk

New Challenge for Risk Governance: Polycrisis and Systemic Risk

The author highlights the rise of polycrises, where interconnected challenges, such as the pandemic, climate change, wars, food insecurity, and inflation, mutually amplify one another. He argues that the traditional approach to risk assessment and management is insufficient to address the multiple facets of polycrisis and introduces a systemic risk framework to capture the systemic […]

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Understanding Polycrisis: Why Interconnected Disasters are the New Normal

In this article, the author explores how disasters such as pandemics, wars, and climate-related events are becoming increasingly interconnected, marking a shift toward what researchers describe as a polycrisis. Drawing on insights from the study “Understanding Polycrisis: Definitions, Applications, and Responses,” the piece highlights how overlapping and cascading crises reveal the fragility of global systems

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Managing Emerging Critical Risks : Case Studies and Cross-Country Synthesis Report

This report provides a synthesis of national approaches to managing emerging critical risks, drawing on case studies from Ireland, Israel, Korea, and the United States. Using a bespoke maturity model, it assesses how advanced each of the four OECD countries is across key dimensions of risk governance, highlighting strengths, gaps, and opportunities for improvement in

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Systemic Contributions to Global Catastrophic Risk

This article examines two distinct but related approaches to the global risk landscape: one explores how risks emerge from complex global systems, while the other focuses on worst-case outcomes. The authors present a framework that connects these perspectives, highlighting how emergent properties of the global system—such as hazards, amplification, vulnerability, and latent risks—drive the potential

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Subjective-Probability Forecasts of Existential Risk: Initial Results from a Hybrid Persuasion-Forecasting Tournament

This article presents a multi-stage forecasting tournament designed to evaluate how experts and generalist superforecasters assess short- and long-term existential risks to humanity, with a focus on artificial intelligence. The study finds that specialists consistently assign higher probabilities to catastrophic and existential threats than generalists, especially for long-term AI risks. Despite structured debate and incentives

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Leading Beyond Barriers: Creating Impact in an Age of Polycrisis

This paper examines the structural impediments to addressing systemic global challenges in a polycrisis environment. The analysis identifies two primary categories of barriers: belief systems that disconnect individuals from systemic issues, and social barriers that hinder collective action. Drawing on successful historical interventions—such as the eradication of smallpox and the elimination of polio—the authors outline

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Systemic Risk and the Polycrisis

The author explores the concepts of systemic risk, polycrisis, and catastrophic risk, explaining how interconnected failures can cascade across diverse systems, threatening global stability. He emphasizes how systemic risk and polycrisis expose both the vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities of our global systems. The article illustrates that while a single failure can trigger widespread collapse, history

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Multipolarization – Munich Security Report 2025

This report presents the findings of the Munich Security Index 2025—an index of global risk perceptions in the G7 and “BICS” countries. It examines the implications of multipolarization in the international order, emphasizing that current trends indicate the negative effects of greater multipolarity are prevailing, as widening divisions among major powers and competing governance models

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