This report presents the results of a futures exercise led by ASRA to explore novel responses to escalating systemic risks between 2025 and 2045. Using the ParEvo method, a group of experts collaboratively developed storylines in response to a world shaped by compounding crises, culminating in a stress test based on a hypothetical global catastrophic […]
New Responses to Systemic Risks: An Exploration 2025–2045 Read More »
The author explores the concepts of systemic risk, polycrisis, and catastrophic risk, explaining how interconnected failures can cascade across diverse systems, threatening global stability. He emphasizes how systemic risk and polycrisis expose both the vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities of our global systems. The article illustrates that while a single failure can trigger widespread collapse, history
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This report presents the findings of the Munich Security Index 2025—an index of global risk perceptions in the G7 and “BICS” countries. It examines the implications of multipolarization in the international order, emphasizing that current trends indicate the negative effects of greater multipolarity are prevailing, as widening divisions among major powers and competing governance models
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The report presents Eurasia Group’s annual forecast of the political risks that are most likely to emerge in 2025.
This report explores the interconnected crises and challenges of biodiversity loss, water availability and quality, food insecurity, health risks, and climate change, focusing on their interlinkages. It assesses current and future trends, emphasizing biodiversity and nature’s contributions to people. The report also examines response options and governance strategies to promote coordinated decision-making, minimize trade-offs, and
The authors present a bibliometric analysis of the research landscape on climate change risk assessment for species and ecosystems, identifying key themes, trends and collaborations. They integrate correlative, mechanistic, trait-based and criteria-based approaches, offering a comprehensive evaluation of their strengths and limitations. Five foundational concepts are highlighted as central to assessing risk: exposure, sensitivity, adaptivity,
The report outlines the results of the strategic foresight and horizon scanning developed by UNEP to help navigate current and future uncertainty and disruptive change. It presents insights on eight critical global shifts that are accelerating the planetary crisis of climate change, biodiversity and nature loss and, pollution and waste.
This study investigates disaster management practices for complex disasters, emphasizing systemic risk management within community resilience strategies.
In the Cascading Risks Study, author Trond Undheim seeks to create five scenarios (Climate cataclysm by 2075; World war by 2075; Growth and collapse by 2075; Runaway AI by 2075; and Synthetic biology released in the wild by 2075 ) with which to spur deeper conversation about the existential risks to humanity and how they
Scenarios 2075: The Cascading Risks Study Read More »
The authors explore the emergence of systemic risks in modern societies by examining how tightly coupled dynamic systems in the Anthropocene can lead to cascading failures. They argue that traditional risk governance approaches are insufficient in addressing the convergence of systemic and conventional risks. Drawing on case studies such as the COVID-19 pandemic and climate
Navigating Systemic Risks: Governance of and for Systemic Risks Read More »
