Systemic Risk

Highlights from the Extreme Heat and Agriculture Report

This report explores the impact of extreme heat on agricultural producers and on crops, livestock, fisheries and aquaculture, and forests worldwide. Drawing on recent scientific evidence and country case studies, it highlights the independent and compound risks posed by extreme heat, underscores the urgency of mitigation, and presents pathways to strengthen resilience and sustainability across […]

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The Weaponization of Emerging Technologies and Their Impact on Global Risk: A Perspective from the PfPC Emerging Security Challenges Working Group

The authors examine how emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence, synthetic biology, quantum computing, and neurotechnology, are reshaping global security risks. The study argues that traditional threat-based security models are inadequate for addressing the complex, transnational, and increasingly weaponized nature of these technologies. The authors propose a shift toward risk-based frameworks that emphasize resilience, systemic

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Global Risk Review

The October Global Risk Review Report provides an analysis of emerging geopolitical, economic, and humanitarian risks, emphasizing the interconnected nature of contemporary crises. It examines rising political violence, institutional fragility, and regional tensions, with examples ranging from the assassination of U.S. political figures to youth-led protests in South and Southeast Asia. The report addresses strategic

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Future Risks Report 2025

The AXA Future Risks Report 2025 presents a comprehensive analysis of global risk perceptions, emphasizing how increasing social fragmentation is compounding systemic vulnerabilities across societies. The report identifies climate change, geopolitical instability, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and big data, social tensions and movements, natural resources and biodiversity loss, macroeconomic risks, energy risks, financial stability risks, and

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Global Systemic Stresses: Understanding the Drivers of Polycrisis

This report introduces the Cascade Institute’s Stress-Trigger-Crisis model, a systemic framework that distinguishes between slow-moving stresses that erode the resilience of global systems and fast-moving trigger events that precipitate crises. It identifies 14 global systemic stresses that affect nine vital systems: climate, ecology, food, energy, economy, infrastructure, health, social order and governance, and world order.

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Stress-Testing the Resilience of Critical Infrastructures Exposed to Polycrises Triggered by Emerging Risks

The article introduces a new approach to stress-testing the resilience of critical infrastructures that are exposed or potentially exposed to adverse events, polycrises, or disasters. It focuses on extreme threats (XTs) that may trigger polycrises and proposes the use of resilience and threat indicators, quantitative stress-testing methods, and standardized solutions. This integrated approach seeks to

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It’s Time to Consider Global Catastrophic Food Failures

The authors explore how food systems face interconnected, systemic risks that could culminate in widespread disruptions, potentially triggering extreme global famine, alongside other neglected extreme risks. They introduce the term Global Catastrophic Food Failure (GCFF) as a type of global catastrophic risk, intended to unify diverse strands of research focused on ensuring global food availability

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Positive Externalities in the Polycrisis: Effectively Addressing Disaster and Climate Risks for Generating Multiple Resilience Dividends

This paper argues that, in the context of the Polycrisis, further investment is urgently needed to address the underlying drivers of disaster and climate-related risks. The authors examine the state of arts of the Triple Dividend of Resilience (TDR) framework, a concept that suggests resilience investments yield not only risk reduction benefits from intervention investments,

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