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Dimensional characterization and Pathway Modeling for Catastrophic AI Risks

This paper examines catastrophic AI risks using a framework that combines seven risk dimensions: intent, competency, entity, polarity, linearity, reach, and order, along with risk pathway modelling to link hazards to harms. It analyzes six major risk types: Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN); cyber offence; sudden and gradual loss of control; environmental; and geopolitical. […]

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Echoes of Uncertainty: Reimagining Complexity of Global Risks in the Shadow of the Russian–Ukrainian Conflict

The authors explore risk perceptions in Ukraine and Poland in the context of the ongoing Russian–Ukrainian conflict. Drawing on cross-sectional survey data, the research reveals significant differences in how respondents from both countries perceive a range of global threats. By comparing perceptions of multiple potential risks that individuals may face in the foreseeable future, the

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International Cooperation in Times of Polycrisis: Patchworks as Pathways in Earth System Governance

This paper re-examines the principles and precepts of ‘old’ multilateralism in the context of the global polycrisis. It offers an analytical framework for ‘new’ multilateralism in Earth system governance, emphasizing the limitations of Global North–Global South binaries and proposing “patchworks” as flexible, cross-scale pathways for cooperation across policy silos.

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Coping with Persistent Disruptive Stressors and Polycrisis: Community-Based Policy Making and Local Empowerment

The authors propose a conceptual framework for governing polycrisis and systemic risks through a bottom-up, community-based approach. They introduce the “risk governance triangle”, linking persistent disruptive stressors, risk-absorbing systems, and contextual modifiers, and structure these elements using the Pagoda model, which identifies five interrelated layers: natural conditions, institutional arrangements, technical and social infrastructure, the built

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Tipping Cascades Between Conflict and Cooperation in Climate Change

The authors examine the complex interplay between climate change and security, offering a systems-based modelling approach to understanding transitions between conflict and cooperation. Drawing on empirical research and the case study of Lake Chad, the article explores how climate risks act as conflict multipliers through tipping points, cascading effects, and multi-agent interactions. Using bi-stable tipping

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Towards a Theory of Coupled Sociopolitical Events-Planetary Boundaries, Crises, Policrisis and Earth System Syndromes

This paper introduces a novel modelling framework to evaluate how specific sociopolitical events influence the Earth System and their interaction with Planetary Boundaries. The authors present an interacting matrix model that links sociopolitical dynamics with biophysical thresholds, enabling the exploration of possible future trajectories, including scenarios that may trigger crises and polycrises. By modelling Planetary

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Global Food Security in a Turbulent World: Reviewing the Impacts of the Pandemic, the War and Climate Change

The authors explore how the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine war, and climate change have jointly disrupted global food security. Drawing on recent empirical evidence, the paper examines the mechanisms through which each shock has affected the four key dimensions of food security: availability, access, utilization, and stability. By highlighting the compounding effects of these overlapping

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Just Systems or Justice in Systems? Exploring the Ethical Implications of Systemic Resilience in Local Climate Adaptation

The article examines the ethical implications of systemic resilience in local climate adaptation, noting that resilience is an inherently normative concept that requires reflection on a system’s function, why it should be made resilient, and who it serves. It argues that decisions about community resilience must be informed by justice considerations, including participatory, procedural, distributive,

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Cascading Failure, Financial Network and Systemic Risk

This paper addresses the challenge of accurately measuring systemic risk by introducing a novel indicator, Expected Shortfall Rank (ESRank), which accounts for cascading failures and network effects often overlooked in traditional models. Using LASSO to construct tail risk networks among financial institutions and ΔCoES to simulate contagion dynamics, the study develops a general cascading failure

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