Futures Studies

Global Strategic Trends

The seventh edition of Global Strategic Trends presents a comprehensive analysis of global conditions projected to 2055. It identifies six interconnected drivers of change: geopolitical competition, demographic shifts, climate and environmental pressures, technological advances, economic transformation, and rising inequality. These forces are accompanied by five major contradictions, such as growing interconnectivity alongside fragmentation and rising […]

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Finnish Government’s Future Report 2025

The Finnish Government’s Future Report 2025 presents a strategic foresight analysis exploring global developments up to 2045 through four possible scenarios: cooperation, tech dominance, geopolitical blocs, and collapse. It identifies 26 change drivers and 14 key uncertainties across geopolitics, technology, environment, and society, aiming to guide Finland’s long-term policy planning. The report emphasizes resilience, sustainability,

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Risks on the Horizon

This study introduces a foresight approach to the analysis of future risks to support anticipatory decision-making. In participatory foresight processes, using horizon scanning outputs, it explores potential future developments and impacts of change within these futures and analyzes the risks and opportunities they may create. The study also presents a Delphi survey that evaluates the

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A History of Possible Futures: Multipath Forecasting of Social Breakdown, Recovery, and Resilience

Peter Turchin and his colleagues explain their design of a computational method to predict social collapse: multipath forecasting. By incorporating quantitative data (i.e. demography) as well as qualitative data (i.e. cultural value), a system trained on historical data predicts “a history of possible futures, in which the near- and medium-term paths of societies are probabilistically

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Global Catastrophic Biological Risks: Toward a Working Definition

Global catastrophic biological risks (GCBRs) are hazards caused by biological agents that result in massive disruptions to society. The authors analyze historical GCBRs, such as H1N1 and the Black Death, and their interactions with other complex aspects of society. The rapid depopulation caused by the Black Death, for example, generated “broad, lasting, and complex effects

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