In the Cascading Risks Study, author Trond Undheim seeks to create five scenarios (Climate cataclysm by 2075; World war by 2075; Growth and collapse by 2075; Runaway AI by 2075; and Synthetic biology released in the wild by 2075 ) with which to spur deeper conversation about the existential risks to humanity and how they […]
Scenarios 2075: The Cascading Risks Study Read More »
This study introduces a foresight approach to the analysis of future risks to support anticipatory decision-making. In participatory foresight processes, using horizon scanning outputs, it explores potential future developments and impacts of change within these futures and analyzes the risks and opportunities they may create. The study also presents a Delphi survey that evaluates the
Risks on the Horizon Read More »
Steffan Heuer discusses the definition of polycrisis, some of the crises facing the world today, and the shortcomings of current approaches that target more immediate issues. “While the term is not new, polycrisis has taken on a new meaning and new urgency as governments, think tanks and ordinary citizens try to get their heads around
How to Deal with a World of Polycrisis? Read More »
The book presents a collection of papers from two 2020 seminars held at Princeton University and at the Berlin Centre for Historical Research of the Polish Academy of Science. The first seminar addressed a range of issues connected with societal resilience. The second addressed the question: “What sort of past does the future need?”.
Perspectives on Public Policy in Societal-Environmental Crises Read More »
Camille Carlton and Maria Bridge argue that technology can amplify the metacrisis in two ways: by creating a centralized dystopia in which governments use technology to control citizens, or by creating decentralized chaos and catastrophe in which individuals wield immense technological powers in a free-for-all.
A Deeper Dive into the Meta Crisis Read More »
Peter Turchin and his colleagues explain their design of a computational method to predict social collapse: multipath forecasting. By incorporating quantitative data (i.e. demography) as well as qualitative data (i.e. cultural value), a system trained on historical data predicts “a history of possible futures, in which the near- and medium-term paths of societies are probabilistically
Global catastrophic biological risks (GCBRs) are hazards caused by biological agents that result in massive disruptions to society. The authors analyze historical GCBRs, such as H1N1 and the Black Death, and their interactions with other complex aspects of society. The rapid depopulation caused by the Black Death, for example, generated “broad, lasting, and complex effects
Global Catastrophic Biological Risks: Toward a Working Definition Read More »
