Catastrophic and Existential Risk Archives

A Systemic Risk Assessment Methodological Framework for the Global Polycrisis

The paper examines two historical global food–energy crises, highlighting the limitations of traditional risk management approaches in addressing today’s complex and interconnected global risks. The authors propose a methodological framework for assessing systemic risks in a global polycrisis context, which includes exploring system architectures, considering transformational responses away from risks, and applying cross-cutting practices. They […]

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The State of Global Catastrophic Risk Research: A Bibliometric Review

This paper presents a systematic bibliometric analysis of the expanding literature on global catastrophic risk (GCR) and existential risk (ER). Based on 3,437 documents, the authors identify ten major research clusters, including key drivers such as artificial intelligence, climate change, and pandemics. The metadata indicate that approximately 150 GCR/ER-related publications are produced annually. The analysis

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Collapse: What It Is — And What To Do

In this episode, Sarah Wilson delves into the concept of societal collapse, exploring its roots and possible responses. She weaves together Western and Indigenous perspectives, discussing theories such as Moloch theory, the influence of the Church, and critiques of technological elitism. The conversation emphasizes viewing crises as opportunities for transformation, advocating for the spread of

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Planet in Polycrisis

In this episode, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Executive Director of the Cascade Institute, and Manjana Milkoreit, postdoctoral researcher at the University of Oslo, explore the growing risks of global polycrisis. Through the lens of complexity science, Homer-Dixon explains how tightly coupled human and Earth systems are increasingly vulnerable to self-amplifying cascades—interlinked crises driven by energy use, environmental

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Extinction of the human species: What could cause it and how likely is it to occur?

The author explores the growing body of scientific and scholarly work on human extinction and existential risks, focusing on the question: “What could kill everyone, and how likely is it to happen?” This review provides an overview of plausible causes of human extinction identified in current academic literature, includes expert judgments on their likelihood, and

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Managing and Mitigating Future Public Health Risks: Planetary Boundaries, Global Catastrophic Risk, and Inclusive Wealth

The authors argue for a more integrated framework to understand existential risks by bridging two dominant paradigms: Planetary Boundaries and Global Catastrophic Risks. Using the COVID-19 pandemic as a case study, the authors analyze how pandemics reveal the interconnectedness of public health, environmental degradation, and global systems. They critique the fragmentation between the Planetary Boundaries

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Planetary Solvency – finding our balance with nature

The report presents a global risk management framework to address climate-related challenges and introduces the Planetary Solvency risk dashboard, providing policymakers with actionable insights to guide human activity within the planet’s finite resources.

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