Top Risk 2024
The report presents an annual forecast of the political risks that are most likely to play out over the course of 2024.
Catastrophic and Existential Risk
Accelerating the Green Transition: Socioecological Systems and the Future of Development
This report highlights lessons from new integrated local solutions in the Middle East and North Africa to manage risks and build resilience. It advocates for a new systems orientation to development paradigms and practice to achieve goals of transformational change.
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Understanding and Mitigating Cascading Crises in the Global Interconnected System
This paper outlines key theoretical, methodological and organisational steps for understanding and mitigating cascading crises. It highlights new areas for integrated and collaborative research that involves cascading risk.
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Quantitative Analysis of EMDAT Indicates Changes in Disaster Trends over 124 Years Associated with Polycrisis
This study examines the increasing frequency, intensity, and interconnectedness of global hazards, both natural and human-made, over the past century.
Permacrisis: A Plan to Fix a Fractured World
The authors analyze underlying drivers of the Permacrisis, explaining how current trends could exacerbate the situation. They propose strategies to transform vicious cycles into virtuous ones.
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Global Catastrophic Risk Assessment
This report summarizes what is known about the risks associated with six threats and hazards: artificial intelligence, asteroid and comet impacts, sudden and severe changes to Earth’s climate, nuclear war, severe pandemics, and supervolcanoes.
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Exploring the interdependence of climate, finance, energy, and geopolitics: A conceptual framework for systemic risks amidst multiple crises
This study proposes a framework to analyze the dynamics and risk channels between the climate crisis, financial stability, the geopolitical energy crisis, and the energy transitions. The framework is presented in a step-by-step guide and applied in a study case in Germany.
AXA Future Risks Report 2024
The Future Risks Report explores the emerging risks we may face in the future. The report highlights the growing complexity of managing risks, making decisions, and tackling challenges in a world marked by rapid technological advances and increasingly interconnected risks, from geopolitics to security to misinformation.
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Scenarios 2075: The Cascading Risks Study
In the Cascading Risks Study, author Trond Undheim seeks to create five scenarios (Climate cataclysm by 2075; World war by 2075; Growth and collapse by 2075; Runaway AI by 2075; and Synthetic biology released in the wild by 2075 ) with which to spur deeper conversation about the existential risks to humanity and how they
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Global Risks Related to Involuntary Migration
The authors examine involuntary migration and its associated global risks. They introduce the GRiNLoc-GpESTE tool to analyze the interconnectedness of factors driving migration, such as conflicts, natural disasters, climate change, and economic limitations. The study urges policymakers to address these risks with a cross-cutting approach, recognizing the potential for polycrisis.
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