The authors argue that disasters are no longer isolated events but manifestations of an interconnected complex risk landscape in which cascading and compounding hazards interact across systems. Drawing on recent examples such as California’s year-round wildfires and Hurricane Helene’s inland flooding, they illustrate how overlapping shocks amplify vulnerability and strain governance capacities. They contend that […]
Updating Mental Models of Risk Read More »
In this episode, Ajay Gambhir, Director of Systemic Risk Assessment at ASRA, explores the concept of polycrisis, showing how climate change is deeply interconnected with other global challenges across social, economic, and political systems. He highlights how crises reinforce one another, creating complex feedbacks that demand integrated solutions. A central theme is inequality, which shapes
Navigating Systemic Risk in the Age of Polycrisis Read More »
In this Cascade Institute Speaker Series episode, Dr. Nate Hagens, presents a compelling framework for understanding our world as a complex, energy-dependent “Superorganism” operating far from equilibrium. He analyzes potential future scenarios that humanity may be heading toward and introduces the idea that small, focused efforts can elevate entire systems to a higher order. This
The Price of Power: Navigating the Great Simplification Read More »
In this report, the Club of Rome argues that the current peace architecture, largely shaped by a few dominant powers in the post–World War II era, is no longer fit for purpose. A post-hegemonic, pluriversal future is needed—one that embraces diverse worldviews, rebalances global power structures, and cultivates harmony between humanity and nature. The Club
Planetary Peace for Human Security: Responses to Existential Risks in the Anthropocene Read More »
The paper examines two historical global food–energy crises, highlighting the limitations of traditional risk management approaches in addressing today’s complex and interconnected global risks. The authors propose a methodological framework for assessing systemic risks in a global polycrisis context, which includes exploring system architectures, considering transformational responses away from risks, and applying cross-cutting practices. They
A Systemic Risk Assessment Methodological Framework for the Global Polycrisis Read More »
This paper presents a systematic bibliometric analysis of the expanding literature on global catastrophic risk (GCR) and existential risk (ER). Based on 3,437 documents, the authors identify ten major research clusters, including key drivers such as artificial intelligence, climate change, and pandemics. The metadata indicate that approximately 150 GCR/ER-related publications are produced annually. The analysis
The State of Global Catastrophic Risk Research: A Bibliometric Review Read More »
In this episode, Sarah Wilson delves into the concept of societal collapse, exploring its roots and possible responses. She weaves together Western and Indigenous perspectives, discussing theories such as Moloch theory, the influence of the Church, and critiques of technological elitism. The conversation emphasizes viewing crises as opportunities for transformation, advocating for the spread of
Collapse: What It Is — And What To Do Read More »
In this episode, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Executive Director of the Cascade Institute, and Manjana Milkoreit, postdoctoral researcher at the University of Oslo, explore the growing risks of global polycrisis. Through the lens of complexity science, Homer-Dixon explains how tightly coupled human and Earth systems are increasingly vulnerable to self-amplifying cascades—interlinked crises driven by energy use, environmental
Planet in Polycrisis Read More »
The authors examine how financial markets amplify the cascading socio-economic impacts of global food and energy trade disruptions. Applying their methodology to the Russia-Ukraine war, they reveal regionally diverse effects, including rising energy prices, market volatility, and worsening food affordability. Their findings underscore the need to address cascading risks to strengthen economic and food system
The author explores the growing body of scientific and scholarly work on human extinction and existential risks, focusing on the question: “What could kill everyone, and how likely is it to happen?” This review provides an overview of plausible causes of human extinction identified in current academic literature, includes expert judgments on their likelihood, and
Extinction of the human species: What could cause it and how likely is it to occur? Read More »
