Scenarios 2075: The Cascading Risks Study
Trond Arne Undheim
In the Cascading Risks Study, author Trond Undheim seeks to create five scenarios (Climate cataclysm by 2075; World war by 2075; Growth and collapse by 2075; Runaway AI by 2075;…
Polycrisis Resource Library
The Polycrisis Resource Library is a growing collection of media that help to understand polycrisis, develop strategies to address polycrisis, and build a field of polycrisis analysis.
The Spectrum of (Poly)Crisis: Exploring Polycrises of the Past to Better Understand our Current and Future Risks
Samantha Louise Holder, Rachel Ainsworth, Daniel Aldrich, James S Bennett, Gary Feinman, Sienna Mark, Georg Orlandi, Johannes Preiser-Kapeller, Jenny Reddish, Rod Schoonover, Peter Turchin and Daniel Hoyer
The authors explore the concept of polycrises by examining historical examples from late 1st-millennium CE Mesoamerica, Late Medieval Eurasia, and the Early Modern Northern Hemisphere to illustrate how these periods…
Global Risks Related to Involuntary Migration
Irena Apolzan Arădăvoaicei, Cristian-Silviu Bănacu, Marin Andreica and Ștefan Săvulescu
The authors examine involuntary migration and its associated global risks. They introduce the GRiNLoc-GpESTE tool to analyze the interconnectedness of factors driving migration, such as conflicts, natural disasters, climate change,…
Impact 2024: How Donald Trump’s Reelection Could Amplify Global Inter-systemic Risk
Thomas Homer-Dixon, Luke Kemp, Michael Lawrence, and Megan Shipman
The November 2024 federal election in the United States could mark an abrupt inflection point not only in the evolution of the American polity but also in the direction of…
Navigating Systemic Risks: Governance of and for Systemic Risks
Pia-Johanna Schweizer and Sirkku Juhola
The authors explore the emergence of systemic risks in modern societies by examining how tightly coupled dynamic systems in the Anthropocene can lead to cascading failures. They argue that traditional…
Planetary Health Check Report 2024
Levke Caesar, Boris Sakschewski, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Tim Beringer, Johanna Braun, Donovan Dennis, Dieter Gerten, Adrian Heilemann, Jonas Kaiser, Niklas H. Kitzmann, Sina Loriani, Wolfgang Lucht, Josef Ludescher, Maria Martin, Sabine Mathesius, Anja Paolucci, Sofie te Wierik and Johan Rockström
The 2024 Planetary Health Check report reveals that six of the nine Planetary Boundary processes have exceeded safe levels, with all six showing increasing pressure across control variables, indicating further…
Facing Global Risks with Honest Hope: Transforming Multidimensional Challenges into Multidimensional Possibilities
Accelerator for Systemic Risk Assessment (ASRA)
This report examines the complexities of a global polycrisis, highlighting the interconnected nature of environmental, economic, and social risks. It emphasizes the urgent need for systemic risk assessment and response….
Loneliness in Times of Global Polycrises
Sebastian Spanknebel, Simon Barton, and René Hurlemann
The authors argue that polycrises “are associated with enormous psychological stress, especially for vulnerable groups”, in part because they impair social interaction. The resulting loneliness then affects people’s behaviors within…
When one crisis comes after another: successive shocks, food insecurity, and coastal precarity in the Philippines
Anacorita O. Abasolo and Marvin Joseph F. Montefrio
The authors examine the layering and succession of social and environmental crises—including a catastrophic typhoon, the COVID-19 pandemic, and economic inflation—and their impacts on food security in Capiz, Philippines. The…
About the Resource Library
The Polycrisis Resource Library includes resources that:
- Comment on the polycrisis as a concept and as a present global reality
- Undertake similar analysis using different—but related—concepts
- Analyze crisis interactions among multiple global systems
Though not exhaustive, the Library strives to present a diverse representation of views on different aspects of the polycrisis discussion, and will be updated as that discussion evolves. Search for resources with the keyword search bar, or by using the drop-down menus to filter for type of resource, global systems addressed, and key themes.
Global crises are multiplying: Here’s how science can help our public decision-makers
John N. Lavis and Mathieu Oumet
The authors argue that the Canadian government’s Scientific Council, which synthesizes the best scientific evidence available for parliamentarians and members of government, needs much better evidence at its disposal to…