Polycrisis and Global Production Networks: A Framework for Understanding Industry Dynamics in Times of Accumulated Uncertainty

The authors develop a framework for understanding how overlapping crises reshape global production networks and accumulate uncertainty for suppliers and workers. Using Bangladesh’s apparel industry as a case study, they analyse how historical trade shifts, the Covid-19 pandemic, geopolitical conflicts, and domestic political-economic crises influence European lead firms’ sourcing decisions. The findings show that lead firms respond to uncertainty by shifting orders and sourcing locations, with the burden of these risk-mitigating strategies, including the financial burden, largely falling on Bangladeshi suppliers and, in turn, on workers. Despite Bangladesh’s growing position in European apparel markets, these dynamics contribute to production volatility, supplier indebtedness, and deteriorating labour conditions. The authors argue that understanding polycrisis requires attention to how particular drivers of change come together and evolve over time, and that polycrisis moments can shape processes of inclusion and exclusion in the global economy.