The report presents Eurasia Group’s annual forecast of the political risks most likely to play out over the course of 2026. It outlines ten key global developments expected to shape the geopolitical landscape, including state-level conflicts, technological disruption, institutional challenges, and economic pressures. The analysis frames 2026 as a potential tipping point, marked by heightened […]
The author argues that large-scale corporate artificial intelligence, or “Big AI,” is accelerating a converging set of ecological, cultural, and linguistic crises that together constitute a global metacrisis. Focusing on large language models, the article examines how these technologies intensify environmental pressures, undermine meaning-making and democratic processes, and contribute to the marginalization and loss of
Big AI is accelerating the metacrisis: What can we do? Read More »
The Crisis24 Global Risk Forecast 2026 provides a strategic outlook on the evolving risk landscape heading into 2026. It identifies a global environment marked by intensifying geopolitical competition, persistent economic volatility, increasing cyber vulnerabilities, and escalating climate disruptions. The report emphasizes the convergence of immediate shocks with deeper structural stressors, highlighting how interconnected and compounding
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The authors critically examine three existential threats facing humanity in the 21st century: advanced artificial intelligence, escalating climate change, and nuclear weapons. Drawing on scientific consensus and growing institutional concern, they explore the structural features that make each threat existential and analyze their dangerous interactions. The authors propose a framework for future inquiry, policy, and
In this conversation, Thomas Homer-Dixon introduces the Cascade Institute’s Polycrisis Core Model (PCM), a novel framework designed to map and analyse interactions among 11 critical global systems, each with multiple potential future states. The model employs cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis to evaluate over four million internally consistent scenarios, ultimately identifying 11 distinct “attractor” states. These
Mapping the Hope Attractor: A Conversation with Thomas- Homer Dixon Read More »
The report AI for a Planet Under Pressure examines the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) to address the contemporary polycrisis by supporting research and decision-making across interconnected sustainability challenges. Synthesizing expert assessments and AI-supported analysis of over 8,500 publications, it evaluates AI’s role across eight critical domains: systemic shocks, Earth system dynamics, ocean stewardship, freshwater
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This article discusses how the global race for artificial intelligence supremacy could spark a polycrisis by 2027, as geopolitical, technological, and economic tensions converge. It argues that control over Taiwan’s semiconductor industry is a central point of dispute between the United States and China, warning that efforts to secure dominance in AI and chip production
A global ‘polycrisis’ is looming, sparked by China, Taiwan and AI, say these researchers Read More »
The authors explore the ethical and ecological implications of artificial intelligence (AI) within the context of the planetary polycrisis. Applying the See–Judge–Act framework, the study assesses the ecological impacts and societal effects of current AI developments, analyzes these findings through the lens of integral ecology, and offers normative and policy recommendations that emphasize respect for
The seventh edition of Global Strategic Trends presents a comprehensive analysis of global conditions projected to 2055. It identifies six interconnected drivers of change: geopolitical competition, demographic shifts, climate and environmental pressures, technological advances, economic transformation, and rising inequality. These forces are accompanied by five major contradictions, such as growing interconnectivity alongside fragmentation and rising
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This report examines how artificial intelligence is transforming biosafety, biosecurity, biodefense, and global health, while simultaneously introducing new biological risks. Drawing on a systematic review of 169 scientific articles and surveys of life science professionals across Latin America, it finds that AI tools are increasingly applied to epidemiological prediction, protein design, and laboratory automation, yet
