Technology

Examining the Three Existential Threats of the 21st Century: Artificial Intelligence, Climate Change, and Nuclear Weapons

The authors critically examine three existential threats facing humanity in the 21st century: advanced artificial intelligence, escalating climate change, and nuclear weapons. Drawing on scientific consensus and growing institutional concern, they explore the structural features that make each threat existential and analyze their dangerous interactions. The authors propose a framework for future inquiry, policy, and […]

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Mapping the Hope Attractor: A Conversation with Thomas- Homer Dixon

In this conversation, Thomas Homer-Dixon introduces the Cascade Institute’s Polycrisis Core Model (PCM), a novel framework designed to map and analyse interactions among 11 critical global systems, each with multiple potential future states. The model employs cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis to evaluate over four million internally consistent scenarios, ultimately identifying 11 distinct “attractor” states. These

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AI for a Planet Under Pressure

The report AI for a Planet Under Pressure examines the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) to address the contemporary polycrisis by supporting research and decision-making across interconnected sustainability challenges. Synthesizing expert assessments and AI-supported analysis of over 8,500 publications, it evaluates AI’s role across eight critical domains: systemic shocks, Earth system dynamics, ocean stewardship, freshwater

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A global ‘polycrisis’ is looming, sparked by China, Taiwan and AI, say these researchers

This article discusses how the global race for artificial intelligence supremacy could spark a polycrisis by 2027, as geopolitical, technological, and economic tensions converge. It argues that control over Taiwan’s semiconductor industry is a central point of dispute between the United States and China, warning that efforts to secure dominance in AI and chip production

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Artificial Intelligence, Integral Ecology, and the Planetary Polycrisis: Insights from Laudato Si’ and Laudate Deum for Sustainable and Just AI Governance

The authors explore the ethical and ecological implications of artificial intelligence (AI) within the context of the planetary polycrisis. Applying the See–Judge–Act framework, the study assesses the ecological impacts and societal effects of current AI developments, analyzes these findings through the lens of integral ecology, and offers normative and policy recommendations that emphasize respect for

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Global Strategic Trends

The seventh edition of Global Strategic Trends presents a comprehensive analysis of global conditions projected to 2055. It identifies six interconnected drivers of change: geopolitical competition, demographic shifts, climate and environmental pressures, technological advances, economic transformation, and rising inequality. These forces are accompanied by five major contradictions, such as growing interconnectivity alongside fragmentation and rising

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Exploring the Intersection between Artificial Intelligence and Biological Sciences: Focus on Uses and Challenges

This report examines how artificial intelligence is transforming biosafety, biosecurity, biodefense, and global health, while simultaneously introducing new biological risks. Drawing on a systematic review of 169 scientific articles and surveys of life science professionals across Latin America, it finds that AI tools are increasingly applied to epidemiological prediction, protein design, and laboratory automation, yet

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Reboot Development : The Economics of a Livable Planet

This report explores how economic growth has historically been linked to rising pollution and environmental degradation. It argues that new data and technologies now enable more informed policymaking and make it possible to decouple growth from environmental harm. It examines the economic stakes of planetary health, the environmental impacts of two defining twenty-first-century trends and

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Public Attitudes to Responding to Global Catastrophic Risks: A New Zealand Case Study

This paper examines public opinion on the New Zealand government’s potential role in planning for global catastrophic risks. Based on a representative survey, 66% of respondents supported the government developing specific plans to address catastrophic risks, and 60% supported establishing a dedicated commission or agency. Support was positively associated with age, education, income, and trust

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Dimensional characterization and Pathway Modeling for Catastrophic AI Risks

This paper examines catastrophic AI risks using a framework that combines seven risk dimensions: intent, competency, entity, polarity, linearity, reach, and order, along with risk pathway modelling to link hazards to harms. It analyzes six major risk types: Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN); cyber offence; sudden and gradual loss of control; environmental; and geopolitical.

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