Social Order and Governance Archives

Immigration, War, Economic Collapse: Will the Global Order Change in 2026?

This article presents Fair Observers’s 2026 geopolitical outlook using a Social, Political, Economic, Religious, and Military framework. The authors argue that overlapping global stresses, immigration pressures, democratic dysfunction, economic fragility, and strategic rivalry, are accelerating institutional erosion. The analysis outlines key global risk dynamics, including the rise of far-right movements in Europe, increasing state fragility, […]

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Undemocratic States, Accelerated Disaster: Can We Reverse the Economic Incentives that Are Killing the Planet?

The author explores how authoritarianism, imperialism, and global capitalism converge to deepen the planetary polycrisis, accelerating ecological breakdown and democratic erosion. Arguing that prevailing economic incentives favour perpetual war and environmental destruction, Fernandes asserts that international institutions have failed to address the structural drivers of crisis. The article calls for a reorientation of economic and

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Global Risks Report 2026: Geopolitical and Economic Risks Rise in New Age of Competition

The Global Risks Report 2026 explores how a new competitive world order is reshaping global risks across domains. Over the next two years, geoeconomic confrontation is identified as the most severe risk, with economic and societal instability also rising sharply. Over a ten-year horizon, inequality emerges as the most interconnected long-term risk, while artificial intelligence shows the

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Parasol Lost Report

This report addresses the escalating risk of “planetary insolvency,” a systemic breakdown driven by accelerating climate change and ecological destabilization. It highlights that global temperatures are rising faster than predicted, partly due to the loss of “aerosol cooling”—a hidden sunshade effect caused by air pollution that has offset approximately 0.5°C of warming. The report warns

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Top Risks 2026

The report presents Eurasia Group’s annual forecast of the political risks most likely to play out over the course of 2026. It outlines ten key global developments expected to shape the geopolitical landscape, including state-level conflicts, technological disruption, institutional challenges, and economic pressures. The analysis frames 2026 as a potential tipping point, marked by heightened

Collective Action in the Age of Polycrisis

In this book, Gilberto Seravalli examines the challenges of fostering collective action amid widespread political, economic, and institutional instability. Framed by the concept of polycrisis, the analysis explores the structural limitations of state and market mechanisms, the erosion of equality, and the pressures contributing to democratic fatigue and authoritarian drift. Combining documentary evidence with quantitative

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All Crises are Unhappy in Their Own Way: The Role of Societal Instability in Shaping the Past

This article introduces the Crisis Database, a comprehensive resource that systematically documents 168 historical societal crises across different time periods, regions, and levels of complexity. Aiming to overcome small-sample bias in previous studies, the database captures a wide range of political, economic, cultural, and institutional factors associated with crises, as well as their consequences—such as

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Cross Currents Conversation Series

The Cross Current series explores the dynamics, disruptions, and discoveries shaping our world. Experts from diverse disciplines engage in cross-sector conversations to deepen understanding of the interconnected risks driving today’s polycrisis.

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Global Risk Review

The October Global Risk Review Report provides an analysis of emerging geopolitical, economic, and humanitarian risks, emphasizing the interconnected nature of contemporary crises. It examines rising political violence, institutional fragility, and regional tensions, with examples ranging from the assassination of U.S. political figures to youth-led protests in South and Southeast Asia. The report addresses strategic

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2025 Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI): Overlapping Hardships: Poverty and Climate Hazards

The 2025 Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) examines the intersection of poverty and climate hazards. It overlays data on climate hazards and multidimensional poverty to assess how exposed poor people are to climate shocks. The analysis reveals that nearly 80 percent of the 1.1 billion people living in acute poverty face at least one climate

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