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The author examines the mathematical and systemic nature of civilizational collapse, tracing how societies both ancient and modern follow what he calls the “Seneca Cliff”: a slow ascent of growth and complexity followed by a rapid, self-reinforcing decline. Drawing on complexity theory, systems dynamics, and historical examples such as the Roman Empire, the Maya, and […]
The Steepness of the Slope Read More »
The author examines the trajectory of global capitalist civilization through the lens of systemic collapse, drawing on historical analogies, ecological constraints, and geopolitical scenarios. He argues against binary scenarios of either total cooperation or complete breakdown, proposing instead that collapse is a complex and multidimensional process. The article highlights how capitalism’s internal contradictions, ecological overshoot,
How and when will our civilization die? Read More »
The AXA Future Risks Report 2025 presents a comprehensive analysis of global risk perceptions, emphasizing how increasing social fragmentation is compounding systemic vulnerabilities across societies. The report identifies climate change, geopolitical instability, cybersecurity, artificial intelligence and big data, social tensions and movements, natural resources and biodiversity loss, macroeconomic risks, energy risks, financial stability risks, and
Future Risks Report 2025 Read More »
The authors argue that disasters are no longer isolated events but manifestations of an interconnected complex risk landscape in which cascading and compounding hazards interact across systems. Drawing on recent examples such as California’s year-round wildfires and Hurricane Helene’s inland flooding, they illustrate how overlapping shocks amplify vulnerability and strain governance capacities. They contend that
Updating Mental Models of Risk Read More »
The WorldRiskReport 2025 presents the WorldRiskIndex, which assesses disaster risk across 193 countries by combining exposure to natural hazards with societal vulnerability. The report identifies Asia, Africa, and the Americas as global risk hotspots, with the Philippines, India, and Indonesia ranking highest in overall risk. This edition focuses on flood risk, emphasizing that it is
The WorldRiskReport Read More »
In this article, Edgar Morin and Claudio Pedretti revisit the concept of polycrisis, arguing that what Morin first introduced in 1999 as a warning has now become our lived reality: a convergence of ecological, political, economic, technological, and existential crises that reinforce one another in cascading, non-linear ways. They show how climate change, inequality, nationalism,
The Polycrisis Demands a Renewed Humanism Read More »
In this Phenomenal World analysis, Kate Mackenzie and Tim Sahay examine how climate-driven disasters are destabilizing the global insurance industry and, by extension, financial and housing markets. They warn of a looming “doom loop” in which rising floods, fires, and storms render properties uninsurable, leading to unmortgageable homes, collapsing housing markets, and systemic economic strain.
Insurance in the Polycrisis Read More »
In this article, the authors introduce a special issue of the International Journal of Disaster Risk Science dedicated to the study of polycrisis and systemic risk. Set against the backdrop of increasingly interconnected global disruptions, the issue critiques conventional, linear models of risk and advocates for integrative, inter- and transdisciplinary approaches to analysis, governance, and
Editorial Introduction to the Special Issue on Polycrisis and Systemic Risks Read More »
The authors examine the multifaceted challenges confronting Canadian higher education within a context of volatility, uncertainty, complexity, and ambiguity, as well as amid multiple overlapping crises. They analyze ten challenges: uncertain finances; an affordability crisis; complexities of equity, diversity, inclusion, decolonization, and Indigenization; intergenerational dissonance; public (ir)relevance; ecological destabilization; ambivalent AI; a mental health epidemic;
Deepening Relational Capacity to Confront the Polycrisis in Higher Education and Beyond Read More »
Michel Rauchs examines the interlinked environmental, economic, and social crises confronting contemporary society, arguing that these challenges constitute a broader metacrisis rooted in systemic flaws of our dominant institutions and growth-driven economic models. While traditional state and market responses have largely failed to address these issues holistically, Rauchs suggests that widespread disillusionment may signal a
We’re Surrounded by Crises. What’s Stopping Us from Acting? Read More »
