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In this blog, Richard Hames discusses polycrisis, societal collapse, existential risk, and related themes. Notable entries include: · “Existential Risk and The Method of Collapsology” (23 June 2022) · “The decisive moment” (01 July 2022) · “On Staying Woke in Polycrisis Futurism” (06 July 2022) · “Attention Deficit Hyperobject Disorder” (18 July 2022) · “The Stakes of Sri Lanka” […]
Daniel Hoyer examines qualitative, case study, complex system, and societal dynamics approaches to explain “historical precedents of collapse, growth, and resilience.” He explains drawbacks to each method, and stresses “the importance of developing formal (especially mathematically articulated) mechanistic theory, as only by explicating what we think drives societal outcomes in a structured, formal way can
The Global Risks Scientists’ Perceptions Report 2021 presents the results of the second iteration of a global survey aimed at capturing how scientists perceive pressing global risks. Conducted between June 16 and July 28, 2021, the survey targeted scientists affiliated with Future Earth, the International Science Council, and the International Observatory on the Social Impacts
Global Risks Perceptions Report 2021 Read More »
Solutions to single problems are never enough when crises stem from flaws in their hosts systems. The New Systems Reader brings together thinkers and activists to propose strategies for systemic change. “The starting point for this book is the inability of the traditional politics and policy to address fundamental challenges. Our goal is not to
The New Systems Reader Read More »
Susan Cutter traces the etymology of the multiple, overlapping terms used to describe “types of situations where there is a single triggering hazardous event resulting in large-scale impacts to lives and livelihoods, which in turn generate secondary or tertiary ‘events’” (p. 17). She notes that the terms “compounding effects” and “cascading hazards” refer to cases
Compound, Cascading, or Complex Disasters: What’s in a Name? Read More »
The authors introduce a classification framework for severe global catastrophic risk scenarios focusing on three dimensions: the critical systems affected, global spread mechanisms, and prevention and mitigation failures.
Classifying Global Catastrophic Risks Read More »
Seth D. Baum and Anthony M. Barrett argue that there are underappreciated systemic interactions between catastrophic risks. Actions taken to mitigate one catastrophic risk may increase or reduce another catastrophic risk. To address these interactions, leaders must use an “integrated assessment” of the whole collection of global catastrophic risks to ensure efforts to remediate one
Towards and Integrated Assessment of Global Catastrophic Risk Read More »
Peter Turchin and his colleagues explain their design of a computational method to predict social collapse: multipath forecasting. By incorporating quantitative data (i.e. demography) as well as qualitative data (i.e. cultural value), a system trained on historical data predicts “a history of possible futures, in which the near- and medium-term paths of societies are probabilistically
The article analyzes the concept of mega-crisis in comparison with crisis. It defines the mega-crisis as a “set of interacting crises that is severe in impact, complex in nature and global in fallout, with no distinct start and end points.” The authors conclude that stakeholder engagement, design-oriented planning, symbolic communications, and case study research are
Further Explication of the Mega-Crisis Concept and Feasible Responses Read More »
Ortwin Renn proposes that societies are good at conventional risk management, which focusses on discrete events like a fire or car accident, but increasingly challenged by systemic risks where a failure in one part of a system quickly spreads to disable the whole system and has ripple effects on others. “It is the totality of
Systemic Risks: The New Kid on the Block Read More »
