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Compound, Cascading, or Complex Disasters: What’s in a Name?

Susan Cutter traces the etymology of the multiple, overlapping terms used to describe “types of situations where there is a single triggering hazardous event resulting in large-scale impacts to lives and livelihoods, which in turn generate secondary or tertiary ‘events’” (p. 17). She notes that the terms “compounding effects” and “cascading hazards” refer to cases […]

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Towards and Integrated Assessment of Global Catastrophic Risk

Seth D. Baum and Anthony M. Barrett argue that there are underappreciated systemic interactions between catastrophic risks. Actions taken to mitigate one catastrophic risk may increase or reduce another catastrophic risk. To address these interactions, leaders must use an “integrated assessment” of the whole collection of global catastrophic risks to ensure efforts to remediate one

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A History of Possible Futures: Multipath Forecasting of Social Breakdown, Recovery, and Resilience

Peter Turchin and his colleagues explain their design of a computational method to predict social collapse: multipath forecasting. By incorporating quantitative data (i.e. demography) as well as qualitative data (i.e. cultural value), a system trained on historical data predicts “a history of possible futures, in which the near- and medium-term paths of societies are probabilistically

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Further Explication of the Mega-Crisis Concept and Feasible Responses

The article analyzes the concept of mega-crisis in comparison with crisis. It defines the mega-crisis as a “set of interacting crises that is severe in impact, complex in nature and global in fallout, with no distinct start and end points.” The authors conclude that stakeholder engagement, design-oriented planning, symbolic communications, and case study research are

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Anticipating Critical Transitions

The authors define a “tipping point” in terms of “a catastrophic bifurcation, where a minor trigger can invoke a self-propagating shift to a contrasting state.” Such “critical transitions” appear in nature and society but remain difficult to predict. The authors propose that complex systems with feature high connectivity and high homogeneity are particularly vulnerable to

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Angle of Vision

In this blog, Michael Lerner (co-founder and president of Commonweal) frequently discusses the global polycrisis. Notable blog posts include: “Navigating the Polycrisis-Life in Turbulent Times” (19 April 2023) “The Year of the Polycrisis” (1 February 2023) “Shed a Little Light” (30 August 2022) “Changing Times” (7 April 2022) “Sources of Hope in the Face of

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