Food

It’s Time to Consider Global Catastrophic Food Failures

The authors explore how food systems face interconnected, systemic risks that could culminate in widespread disruptions, potentially triggering extreme global famine, alongside other neglected extreme risks. They introduce the term Global Catastrophic Food Failure (GCFF) as a type of global catastrophic risk, intended to unify diverse strands of research focused on ensuring global food availability […]

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A Systemic Risk Assessment Methodological Framework for the Global Polycrisis

The paper examines two historical global food–energy crises, highlighting the limitations of traditional risk management approaches in addressing today’s complex and interconnected global risks. The authors propose a methodological framework for assessing systemic risks in a global polycrisis context, which includes exploring system architectures, considering transformational responses away from risks, and applying cross-cutting practices. They

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Global Food Security in a Turbulent World: Reviewing the Impacts of the Pandemic, the War and Climate Change

The authors explore how the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine war, and climate change have jointly disrupted global food security. Drawing on recent empirical evidence, the paper examines the mechanisms through which each shock has affected the four key dimensions of food security: availability, access, utilization, and stability. By highlighting the compounding effects of these overlapping

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Polycrisis in Agrifood Systems: Climate-Conflict Interactions and Labor Dynamics for Women and Youth in 21 African Countries

This paper examines how armed conflict and climate change jointly affect individual labour intensity in 21 African countries. Using labour force surveys alongside climate and conflict event data, the study finds that extreme climate events have more severe negative impacts in regions already affected by conflict. These compounded effects, framed as a climate-conflict polycrisis, disproportionately

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The Thematic Assessment Report on Interlinkages Among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health

This report explores the interconnected crises and challenges of biodiversity loss, water availability and quality, food insecurity, health risks, and climate change, focusing on their interlinkages. It assesses current and future trends, emphasizing biodiversity and nature’s contributions to people. The report also examines response options and governance strategies to promote coordinated decision-making, minimize trade-offs, and

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Impact 2024: How Donald Trump’s Reelection Could Amplify Global Inter-systemic Risk

The November 2024 federal election in the United States could mark an abrupt inflection point not only in the evolution of the American polity but also in the direction of global society. In this report, the Cascade Institute’s Polycrisis research team examines possible global systemic impacts of a second Trump presidency and maps the ways

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Global Resilience Report: Safeguarding the Nutrition of Vulnerable Children, Women, Families and Communities in the Context of Polycrisis

This report examines the impact of the polycrisis on food and nutrition insecurity, particularly among vulnerable women and children. It reveals that, despite rising malnutrition, many countries successfully adapted and strengthened key systems such as food, health, and education to protect nutrition. The report highlights the role of community-based actions, digital technologies, and coordination platforms

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Exploring Food System Resilience to the Global Polycrisis in Six Asian Countries

The authors explore the resilience of food systems in six Asian countries (Bangladesh, Kyrgyz Republic, Lao PDR, Pakistan, Philippines, and Sri Lanka) amidst the global polycrisis caused by COVID-19, geopolitical conflicts, and climate change. Using trend analyses of 19 indicators from global and national data sources, the study assesses four key domains of food system

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The Great Disruption has Begun

Paul Gilding argues that the world has reached “a multi-system tipping point” that will bring “the Great Disruption”: “a destabilisation of the global climate system at a scale that is so chaotic, unpredictable and costly, it will trigger cascading disruptive change in the global economy, national politics, investment markets and geopolitical security.” Gilding predicts that

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World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2023

Global Risks Report 2023

This 18th edition of the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report is based on a risk perceptions survey of 1200 experts on the likelihood, severity, and interconnections between 37 global risks. It finds that the biggest risk in the next two years is the cost of living crisis, and the biggest risk in the next

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