Food Archives - Polycrisis

Mapping the Hope Attractor: A Conversation with Thomas- Homer Dixon

In this conversation, Thomas Homer-Dixon introduces the Cascade Institute’s Polycrisis Core Model (PCM), a novel framework designed to map and analyse interactions among 11 critical global systems, each with multiple potential future states. The model employs cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis to evaluate over four million internally consistent scenarios, ultimately identifying 11 distinct “attractor” states. These […]

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Savvy, Skeptical ‘Polycrisis Shoppers’ Are Browsing Your Aisles – Here’s What to Do

The author examines how the polycrisis is reshaping consumer behaviour and the food industry. Amid inflation, climate-driven crop failures, and global supply chain disruptions, a new type of consumer has emerged: the Polycrisis Shopper. These shoppers are hyperaware, price-sensitive, and pragmatic, abandoning brand loyalty in favour of value, transparency, and sustainability. They balance stockpiling with

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The Perfect Storm: How Intertwined Crises are Reshaping Global Food Security and Commodity Markets

The article examines how cascading crises during 2024 and 2025, including climate extremes, geopolitical conflicts, and economic pressures, have disrupted global agricultural supply chains. These disruptions have led to rising food prices, supply shortages, and increased food insecurity. The analysis identifies winners and losers among public companies, noting that those investing in sustainability, technology, and

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Food Trade Disruption After Global Catastrophes

The authors examine how the global food trade system is vulnerable to major shocks such as abrupt sunlight reduction (from nuclear war or volcanic activity) or global infrastructure loss (from severe geomagnetic storms or pandemics). Using a network model, they find that a sunlight reduction event could cause most countries to lose 50%–100% of their

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Global Systemic Stresses: Understanding the Drivers of Polycrisis

This report introduces the Cascade Institute’s Stress-Trigger-Crisis model, a systemic framework that distinguishes between slow-moving stresses that erode the resilience of global systems and fast-moving trigger events that precipitate crises. It identifies 14 global systemic stresses that affect nine vital systems: climate, ecology, food, energy, economy, infrastructure, health, social order and governance, and world order.

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It’s Time to Consider Global Catastrophic Food Failures

The authors explore how food systems face interconnected, systemic risks that could culminate in widespread disruptions, potentially triggering extreme global famine, alongside other neglected extreme risks. They introduce the term Global Catastrophic Food Failure (GCFF) as a type of global catastrophic risk, intended to unify diverse strands of research focused on ensuring global food availability

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A Systemic Risk Assessment Methodological Framework for the Global Polycrisis

The paper examines two historical global food–energy crises, highlighting the limitations of traditional risk management approaches in addressing today’s complex and interconnected global risks. The authors propose a methodological framework for assessing systemic risks in a global polycrisis context, which includes exploring system architectures, considering transformational responses away from risks, and applying cross-cutting practices. They

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Global Food Security in a Turbulent World: Reviewing the Impacts of the Pandemic, the War and Climate Change

The authors explore how the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine war, and climate change have jointly disrupted global food security. Drawing on recent empirical evidence, the paper examines the mechanisms through which each shock has affected the four key dimensions of food security: availability, access, utilization, and stability. By highlighting the compounding effects of these overlapping

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Polycrisis in Agrifood Systems: Climate-Conflict Interactions and Labor Dynamics for Women and Youth in 21 African Countries

This paper examines how armed conflict and climate change jointly affect individual labour intensity in 21 African countries. Using labour force surveys alongside climate and conflict event data, the study finds that extreme climate events have more severe negative impacts in regions already affected by conflict. These compounded effects, framed as a climate-conflict polycrisis, disproportionately

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