The 2026 Global Report on Food Crises finds that 266 million people across 47 countries faced high levels of acute food insecurity in 2025 — with famine confirmed simultaneously in parts of the Gaza Strip and Sudan. Conflict remained the primary driver, affecting over 147 million people, while humanitarian and development financing collapsed to decade-low […]
The 2026 Global Report on Food Crises Read More »
This article argues that the war involving Iran, particularly through the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has driven up oil and fertilizer prices, triggering supply shortages that threaten global agricultural production just as climate pressures intensify. The anticipated arrival of a strong or “super” El Niño is expected to further disrupt weather patterns, compounding
Sky-High Oil Prices. A Fertilizer Shortage. Now Add a “Super El Niño.” Read More »
In this conversation, Thomas Homer-Dixon introduces the Cascade Institute’s Polycrisis Core Model (PCM), a novel framework designed to map and analyse interactions among 11 critical global systems, each with multiple potential future states. The model employs cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis to evaluate over four million internally consistent scenarios, ultimately identifying 11 distinct “attractor” states. These
Mapping the Hope Attractor: A Conversation with Thomas- Homer Dixon Read More »
The author examines how the polycrisis is reshaping consumer behaviour and the food industry. Amid inflation, climate-driven crop failures, and global supply chain disruptions, a new type of consumer has emerged: the Polycrisis Shopper. These shoppers are hyperaware, price-sensitive, and pragmatic, abandoning brand loyalty in favour of value, transparency, and sustainability. They balance stockpiling with
Savvy, Skeptical ‘Polycrisis Shoppers’ Are Browsing Your Aisles – Here’s What to Do Read More »
The article examines how cascading crises during 2024 and 2025, including climate extremes, geopolitical conflicts, and economic pressures, have disrupted global agricultural supply chains. These disruptions have led to rising food prices, supply shortages, and increased food insecurity. The analysis identifies winners and losers among public companies, noting that those investing in sustainability, technology, and
The authors examine how the global food trade system is vulnerable to major shocks such as abrupt sunlight reduction (from nuclear war or volcanic activity) or global infrastructure loss (from severe geomagnetic storms or pandemics). Using a network model, they find that a sunlight reduction event could cause most countries to lose 50%–100% of their
Food Trade Disruption After Global Catastrophes Read More »
This report introduces the Cascade Institute’s Stress-Trigger-Crisis model, a systemic framework that distinguishes between slow-moving stresses that erode the resilience of global systems and fast-moving trigger events that precipitate crises. It identifies 14 global systemic stresses that affect nine vital systems: climate, ecology, food, energy, economy, infrastructure, health, social order and governance, and world order.
Global Systemic Stresses: Understanding the Drivers of Polycrisis Read More »
The authors explore how food systems face interconnected, systemic risks that could culminate in widespread disruptions, potentially triggering extreme global famine, alongside other neglected extreme risks. They introduce the term Global Catastrophic Food Failure (GCFF) as a type of global catastrophic risk, intended to unify diverse strands of research focused on ensuring global food availability
It’s Time to Consider Global Catastrophic Food Failures Read More »
The paper examines two historical global food–energy crises, highlighting the limitations of traditional risk management approaches in addressing today’s complex and interconnected global risks. The authors propose a methodological framework for assessing systemic risks in a global polycrisis context, which includes exploring system architectures, considering transformational responses away from risks, and applying cross-cutting practices. They
A Systemic Risk Assessment Methodological Framework for the Global Polycrisis Read More »
The authors explore how the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine war, and climate change have jointly disrupted global food security. Drawing on recent empirical evidence, the paper examines the mechanisms through which each shock has affected the four key dimensions of food security: availability, access, utilization, and stability. By highlighting the compounding effects of these overlapping
