Earth System

Mapping the Hope Attractor: A Conversation with Thomas- Homer Dixon

In this conversation, Thomas Homer-Dixon introduces the Cascade Institute’s Polycrisis Core Model (PCM), a novel framework designed to map and analyse interactions among 11 critical global systems, each with multiple potential future states. The model employs cross-impact balance (CIB) analysis to evaluate over four million internally consistent scenarios, ultimately identifying 11 distinct “attractor” states. These […]

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The Global Tipping Points Report 2025

The Global Tipping Points Report 2025 presents a comprehensive assessment of the escalating risks posed by irreversible changes in Earth’s systems due to human-driven climate and ecological pressures. With contributions from over 160 scientists across 87 institutions, the report identifies critical tipping points such as the collapse of coral reefs, thawing permafrost, and destabilization of

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Overshoot: Navigating a world beyond 1.5°C

In this four-part documentary series, Laurie Laybourn explores the significant challenges associated with exceeding the 1.5°C global warming threshold. Through interviews with a diverse range of contributors, including climate negotiators, Pacific islanders, scientists, and grassroots activists, the series examines the social, political, and ecological implications of climate overshoot. It situates these perspectives within a broader

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Nature and Biodiversity Loss: A Research Agenda for Financial Economics

The authors outline a research agenda to deepen understanding of the economic and financial consequences of nature and biodiversity loss, emphasizing that ecosystem degradation and climate change are intertwined through a “Twin-Crises Multiplier.” They introduce a model in which ecosystem services are direct inputs to economic production, and their loss amplifies both environmental and financial

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Global Strategic Trends

The seventh edition of Global Strategic Trends presents a comprehensive analysis of global conditions projected to 2055. It identifies six interconnected drivers of change: geopolitical competition, demographic shifts, climate and environmental pressures, technological advances, economic transformation, and rising inequality. These forces are accompanied by five major contradictions, such as growing interconnectivity alongside fragmentation and rising

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Facing the Polycrisis: Human-Environmental Security for Planet Earth

This chapter of the Handbook on Migration and Human Rights examines the urgency of adopting a holistic vision for human–environmental security in shaping the future of the planet. It highlights how “human security” objectives can be aligned with “human rights” concerns in the design and implementation of responsible government policy aimed at safeguarding planet Earth.

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Exploring the Intersection between Artificial Intelligence and Biological Sciences: Focus on Uses and Challenges

This report examines how artificial intelligence is transforming biosafety, biosecurity, biodefense, and global health, while simultaneously introducing new biological risks. Drawing on a systematic review of 169 scientific articles and surveys of life science professionals across Latin America, it finds that AI tools are increasingly applied to epidemiological prediction, protein design, and laboratory automation, yet

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Reboot Development : The Economics of a Livable Planet

This report explores how economic growth has historically been linked to rising pollution and environmental degradation. It argues that new data and technologies now enable more informed policymaking and make it possible to decouple growth from environmental harm. It examines the economic stakes of planetary health, the environmental impacts of two defining twenty-first-century trends and

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The Price of Power: Navigating the Great Simplification

In this Cascade Institute Speaker Series episode, Dr. Nate Hagens, presents a compelling framework for understanding our world as a complex, energy-dependent “Superorganism” operating far from equilibrium. He analyzes potential future scenarios that humanity may be heading toward and introduces the idea that small, focused efforts can elevate entire systems to a higher order. This

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Towards a Theory of Coupled Sociopolitical Events-Planetary Boundaries, Crises, Policrisis and Earth System Syndromes

This paper introduces a novel modelling framework to evaluate how specific sociopolitical events influence the Earth System and their interaction with Planetary Boundaries. The authors present an interacting matrix model that links sociopolitical dynamics with biophysical thresholds, enabling the exploration of possible future trajectories, including scenarios that may trigger crises and polycrises. By modelling Planetary

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