Earth System Archives

Reboot Development : The Economics of a Livable Planet

This report explores how economic growth has historically been linked to rising pollution and environmental degradation. It argues that new data and technologies now enable more informed policymaking and make it possible to decouple growth from environmental harm. It examines the economic stakes of planetary health, the environmental impacts of two defining twenty-first-century trends and […]

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The Price of Power: Navigating the Great Simplification

In this Cascade Institute Speaker Series episode, Dr. Nate Hagens, presents a compelling framework for understanding our world as a complex, energy-dependent “Superorganism” operating far from equilibrium. He analyzes potential future scenarios that humanity may be heading toward and introduces the idea that small, focused efforts can elevate entire systems to a higher order. This

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Towards a Theory of Coupled Sociopolitical Events-Planetary Boundaries, Crises, Policrisis and Earth System Syndromes

This paper introduces a novel modelling framework to evaluate how specific sociopolitical events influence the Earth System and their interaction with Planetary Boundaries. The authors present an interacting matrix model that links sociopolitical dynamics with biophysical thresholds, enabling the exploration of possible future trajectories, including scenarios that may trigger crises and polycrises. By modelling Planetary

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Interconnected Disaster Risks: Turning Over a New Leaf

The 2025 Interconnected Disaster Risks report, Turning Over a New Leaf, calls for transformative societal changes to address escalating global crises. It outlines five essential shifts: rethinking waste, realigning with nature, reconsidering responsibility, reimagining the future, and redefining value to prioritize planetary health over economic growth. The report introduces the Theory of Deep Change, advocating

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Collapse: What It Is — And What To Do

In this episode, Sarah Wilson delves into the concept of societal collapse, exploring its roots and possible responses. She weaves together Western and Indigenous perspectives, discussing theories such as Moloch theory, the influence of the Church, and critiques of technological elitism. The conversation emphasizes viewing crises as opportunities for transformation, advocating for the spread of

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Planet in Polycrisis

In this episode, Thomas Homer-Dixon, Executive Director of the Cascade Institute, and Manjana Milkoreit, postdoctoral researcher at the University of Oslo, explore the growing risks of global polycrisis. Through the lens of complexity science, Homer-Dixon explains how tightly coupled human and Earth systems are increasingly vulnerable to self-amplifying cascades—interlinked crises driven by energy use, environmental

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A Logic For The Future

Stephen Heintz and Kim Stanley Robinson explore the concept of the polycrisis and the urgent need for comprehensive reform of global governance. In an era marked by interconnected political, economic, technological, and environmental challenges that transcend national borders, current institutions are proving inadequate. This dialogue reflects on historical moments of transformation and argues for a

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Polycrises: A New International Reality?

In this special issue of Recherche et politique appliquée, an initiative led by the Interdisciplinary Research Laboratory on Risks and Crises (LIRIC), the concept of polycrisis is explored through practical applications. Featuring contributions from graduate students, the issue offers critical reflections on the meaning, emergence, and operationalization of polycrisis across academic and francophone contexts.

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Principles for Guiding Future Research on Resilience and Tipping Points

This paper presents an integrated systems approach to resilience and tipping points by bridging heuristic models with mathematical frameworks from dynamical systems theory. Using the ball-and-cup model alongside the S-shaped bifurcation curve, the authors demonstrate how concepts such as stability, adaptive capacity, and vulnerability can be formally defined and applied to complex ecological, climate, and

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Planetary Boundaries, Polycrisis and Politics in the Anthropocene: Climate Pathways, Tipping Cascades and Transition to Sustainable Peace in Integrative Geography

This chapter explores the impacts of the “great acceleration” in human development and its impact on planetary boundaries and the polycrisis in the Anthropocene. Using an Integrative Geography perspective, it links human-nature relationships, growth limits, and global expansion to crises and geopolitical conflicts, highlighting interconnected risks. The chapter calls for sustainable peace by balancing human

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