This paper explores how policy responses to the polycrisis seek to reshape Global Production Networks, encouraging new forms of decoupling and recoupling. The author focuses on the EU’s trade policy responses to the climate crisis, especially carbon tariffs and the deforestation regulation. These new measures represent a shift from traditional trade policy and a conscious […]
In this webinar hosted by the European Banking Institute in collaboration with e-axes forum, Ortwin Renn, AJ Gambir, and Jo Paisley explore how systemic risks emerge from complex interdependencies, non-linear dynamics, and cascading effects that challenge established governance, regulatory, and analytical frameworks. The panel examines why traditional risk assessment tools struggle under deep uncertainty and
Polycrisis, Energy, and Climate Change Read More »
This article argues that the war involving Iran, particularly through the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, has driven up oil and fertilizer prices, triggering supply shortages that threaten global agricultural production just as climate pressures intensify. The anticipated arrival of a strong or “super” El Niño is expected to further disrupt weather patterns, compounding
Sky-High Oil Prices. A Fertilizer Shortage. Now Add a “Super El Niño.” Read More »
This article argues that climate change, biodiversity loss, and social inequity form an interconnected polycrisis driven by shared underlying causes and mutually reinforcing dynamics. It shows how environmental degradation and social inequity interact across systems, with high-income populations contributing disproportionately to these crises while experiencing fewer of their impacts. The article emphasizes that addressing this
Beyond Climate: Sketching the Anatomy of our Polycrisis and Reflecting on Solutions Read More »
This article argues that environmental change is now an immediate driver of geopolitical instability and market disruption, not just a long-term risk. It highlights how climate change and nature loss interact with geopolitical rivalry, supply chain fragility, and financial risk, creating reinforcing feedback loops that are often overlooked due to siloed approaches to risk assessment
Governing Environmental Risk in an Era of Geopolitical Instability Read More »
This commentary reviews fifteen continuing dynamics of the polycrisis and examines how they have changed over the past year. It argues that global instability is increasingly driven by the interaction of multiple reinforcing crises, including proliferating armed conflicts, escalating geopolitical rivalry, the breakdown of international cooperation, rising inequality, democratic backsliding, and intensifying climate disruption. The
Dynamics of Polycrisis 2.0 Read More »
The author argues that a new polycrisis is emerging at the intersection of climate change and cybersecurity, as extreme weather, natural disasters, and cyberattacks increasingly occur simultaneously and amplify one another. Focusing on Asia and the Pacific, the article shows how climate-driven disruptions to critical infrastructure create openings for cybercrime, particularly during moments of emergency
How Do We Navigate Asia-Pacific’s Climate-Cyber Polycrisis? Read More »
The authors review how minimising the magnitude and duration of any temperature overshoot beyond 1.5 °C could decrease tipping risks for multiple Earth system tipping elements. They find that fast-responding systems such as coral reefs are especially vulnerable even to brief overshoots, while slow-responding systems such as polar ice sheets may avoid tipping if the
The Implications of Overshooting 1.5 °C on Earth System Tipping Elements—a Review Read More »
This article highlights how environmental risks remain among the most severe global threats in the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2026, yet their perceived urgency has shifted across time horizons. While short-term concerns are increasingly dominated by geopolitical fragmentation and misinformation, this shift does not reflect an easing of environmental threats, which are now
What the Global Risks Report 2026 Really Says About the Urgency of Environmental Threats Read More »
The article argues that warming is on a trajectory to pass the critical 1.5-degree limit, with scientists warning that the world is on course to trigger tipping points that would lead to cascading consequences. These include irreversible impacts such as the collapse of natural carbon sinks, the death of the Amazon rainforest, and the release
Overshoot: The World Is Hitting Point of No Return on Climate Read More »
