The 2025 Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) examines the intersection of poverty and climate hazards. It overlays data on climate hazards and multidimensional poverty to assess how exposed poor people are to climate shocks. The analysis reveals that nearly 80 percent of the 1.1 billion people living in acute poverty face at least one climate […]
The Global Tipping Points Report 2025 presents a comprehensive assessment of the escalating risks posed by irreversible changes in Earth’s systems due to human-driven climate and ecological pressures. With contributions from over 160 scientists across 87 institutions, the report identifies critical tipping points such as the collapse of coral reefs, thawing permafrost, and destabilization of
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In this four-part documentary series, Laurie Laybourn explores the significant challenges associated with exceeding the 1.5°C global warming threshold. Through interviews with a diverse range of contributors, including climate negotiators, Pacific islanders, scientists, and grassroots activists, the series examines the social, political, and ecological implications of climate overshoot. It situates these perspectives within a broader
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This report introduces the Cascade Institute’s Stress-Trigger-Crisis model, a systemic framework that distinguishes between slow-moving stresses that erode the resilience of global systems and fast-moving trigger events that precipitate crises. It identifies 14 global systemic stresses that affect nine vital systems: climate, ecology, food, energy, economy, infrastructure, health, social order and governance, and world order.
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In this episode, Ajay Gambhir, Director of Systemic Risk Assessment at ASRA, explores the concept of polycrisis, showing how climate change is deeply interconnected with other global challenges across social, economic, and political systems. He highlights how crises reinforce one another, creating complex feedbacks that demand integrated solutions. A central theme is inequality, which shapes
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This paper argues that, in the context of the Polycrisis, further investment is urgently needed to address the underlying drivers of disaster and climate-related risks. The authors examine the state of arts of the Triple Dividend of Resilience (TDR) framework, a concept that suggests resilience investments yield not only risk reduction benefits from intervention investments,
The authors examine the complex interplay between climate change and security, offering a systems-based modelling approach to understanding transitions between conflict and cooperation. Drawing on empirical research and the case study of Lake Chad, the article explores how climate risks act as conflict multipliers through tipping points, cascading effects, and multi-agent interactions. Using bi-stable tipping
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The authors explore how the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia–Ukraine war, and climate change have jointly disrupted global food security. Drawing on recent empirical evidence, the paper examines the mechanisms through which each shock has affected the four key dimensions of food security: availability, access, utilization, and stability. By highlighting the compounding effects of these overlapping
This paper examines how armed conflict and climate change jointly affect individual labour intensity in 21 African countries. Using labour force surveys alongside climate and conflict event data, the study finds that extreme climate events have more severe negative impacts in regions already affected by conflict. These compounded effects, framed as a climate-conflict polycrisis, disproportionately
David Krogmann explores the persistence of liberal environmentalism in international climate policy, despite the growing climate crisis and the broader polycrisis in international relations. He argues that the deep institutionalization of norms linking economic growth with environmental protection creates a mismatch between the crisis and political responses. Drawing on liberal institutionalism, constructivism, and neo-realism, Krogmann
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