Updating Mental Models of Risk

The authors argue that disasters are no longer isolated events but manifestations of an interconnected complex risk landscape in which cascading and compounding hazards interact across systems. Drawing on recent examples such as California’s year-round wildfires and Hurricane Helene’s inland flooding, they illustrate how overlapping shocks amplify vulnerability and strain governance capacities. They contend that prevailing linear and event-specific mental models of risk are outdated, fostering reactive rather than preventive policies, and call for a fundamental shift in how risk is conceptualized and managed. The authors emphasize that strengthening local resilience, social infrastructure, and community cohesion is essential for a broader transformation toward integrated, multi-level risk governance.