Towards a Theory of Coupled Sociopolitical Events-Planetary Boundaries, Crises, Policrisis and Earth System Syndromes

This paper introduces a novel modelling framework to evaluate how specific sociopolitical events influence the Earth System and their interaction with Planetary Boundaries. The authors present an interacting matrix model that links sociopolitical dynamics with biophysical thresholds, enabling the exploration of possible future trajectories, including scenarios that may trigger crises and polycrises. By modelling Planetary Boundaries with a logistic growth function and sociopolitical events with exponential dynamics, the study shows how certain developments can produce runaway effects on ecological thresholds. The paper also proposes a framework to describe, classify, and compare “sociopolitical syndromes,” understood as clusters of interconnected polycrisis.